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Jenna Ellis Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time.
Jenna Ellis This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Jenna Ellis Good morning. It is Monday, November 2nd. And the biggest headline this morning is the Learjet plane crash that happened here in Florida in Palm beach county yesterday. confirmed killing all nine on board, and the cause is not yet known. The NTSB has opened an investigation and is expected to have a briefing later today. And so, Secretary Shawn Duffy is also involved in, that investigation. So as we learn more about this, we will have guests on and cover that. But, all that we know so far is that we need to pray for, everyone who has, lost family members who are involved in that. It's always very tragic when we have to read those kinds of headlines. so we are also a day out from the midterms, and, congressional races are very important. There's been a lot of spotlight on, governor's races across the country. President Trump, of course, is going around doing a lot of rallies and trying to rally out the base. And also my former home state of Colorado has a gubernatorial election that is, coming up tomorrow. And so let's welcome in Victor Marks, who is the GOP Colorado gubernatorial candidate. And so, Victor, good morning. And it's so great to speak with you. I've been following, your campaign, since the primary as well. I know a lot of friends in Colorado that, that were following that closely as well. So good morning. And how are things shaping up?
Victor Marx Good morning to you. Well, this is, this is going to be one of the biggest upsets in the nation if we keep doing and seeing what we're seeing. you know, it's been a Cinderella story from the beginning. I entered as a non politician, an outsider, and had literally the GOP establishment against me. The, legacy media, the conservative media, except for one or two people, and of course the Democrats raging against us with over 20 different candidates, including Congress, congressmen, senators, well known people out here, we won, we broke, we broke records of, support and we created an army, our true grassroots army. And it's just what the state is looking for. I don't care if people are Republicans, unaffiliate, and even Democrats are coming out in droves to support us. So this is probably one of the biggest races in the nation. Well, General Mike Flynn said it himself early on. He said this is the governor's reach to watch, could be the biggest upset. So I think the latest poll, which I'm not big on polls, but it has me trailing my opponent by only three points with the unaffiliates, which are the 52% voting bloc of the state, they decide. And, we're excited and continue to be stunned day by day by people's responses.
Jenna Ellis Amazing. Well, and, you know, with, with current Governor Jared Polis, term limited and that leadership, you know, moving out, this is a prime moment in Colorado for some change and maybe going back to where Colorado used to be. historically it was once considered actually a red state. Then it, was considered maybe a competitive purple state. But Democrats have consolidated significant political power. you know, we've talked about on this program quite a bit the Democrats playbook that they tried to specifically, and they succeeded unfortunately, in targeting Colorado and making the policy so leftist that it attracted a lot of people to move into the state. And unfortunately was the first state, one, of the first two, to pass that, constitutional state. Constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana. amendment 64, which I think was the downturn of, of Colorado back in, 2012. And so, what is your argument to Coloradans who, have lived in that state for, you know, their lives? They've seen kind of a lot of these changes and are not happy with the state's policies. how, how much abortion, is unfortunately thriving there. I mean, the, the left really has that stranglehold. what is your argument to, to Coloradans?
Victor Marx Well, there's a certain point where pain is the greatest motivator. And you know what? We started doing rallies from the beginning. We didn't do anything normal. We studied what was happening here in Colorado, what had happened, and it was an insurgency. So quite honestly, we just did a counterinsurgency. We did it Different. And the people of Colorado have spoken. Two questions I ask at every rally and I, the first one is this. When I say rally, I mean our first rally have about 1100 people attending. It's. We're doing something by creating a movement that's never been done before out here. So the two questions I ask is one, how many of you have never been involved in politics? 70% of the people raise their hand, never gone to a rally, never. You know, it's just. Nope. Second, which is the most important, how many of you, even generational Coloradans for the first time in your life are considering having to move out of the state because it's unaffordable and it's not safe and you're sick of no accountability. Under the golden dome at the Capitol, over 70% of, sometimes it's 80, 85% of the people raise their hand. This has been the one constant around the state. And you know what people told me? You'll never reach the Democrats. I said, why not? They're Coloradans too. There are moderate ones that are sick and tired of the aggressive left leaning. And now the Democratic socialist, was a party moving in. And you know what? We had a Democrat hold a fundraiser for us downtown Denver in a hotel that they own. And tons of people came out Democrats, unaffiliates. There's something happening here that, well, just to be frank with you, we believe it's because of prayer. We have had so many people praying for this. every morning at 6:45 people get on a call, pray. We had 21 days of fasting and prayer. Churches for the first time have really, you see the courage in pastors, to have us come in to share their preaching from the pulpits. What matter. And there's m. There's these ballot initiatives that are on the ballot to protect our children from boys entering girl sports and locker rooms, having anyone who traffics a child for sexual have life imprisonment. And the third one, not allow underage girls to have their body, I mean life altering changes to their body. Those three ballot measures are on there. This is what's pulling out people to vote because it's just time for common sense to happen. And people of Colorado, they're sick and tired of this one party rule and watch what's going to happen tomorrow.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, and I love that saying that even the moderates and the Democrats are Coloradans too. And it would seem that everyone in the state would at least want the policies that shape the best living environment, the best liberty and freedom for people, but also protections that the government is actually obligated to provide. And that's, of course, what makes us conservatives, is that we recognize that the government has legitimacy in, promoting good, restraining evil. but then they can go too far as well. And so your Christian faith, Victor Marks, has been central to your work, as you've, expressed. And what's the single biggest thing you believe that Colorado's current leadership has failed to understand about the people that you're hoping to reach and these people that they're currently governing?
Victor Marx Well, if you look at what's happened here, they've just looked over the entire state. They've not cared about Coloradans. And my opponent, who's the current attorney general, his legacy he's leaving is he has sued President Trump 88 times. But you look at our state, over 70% of child rapists, men who are raping children, only get probation in our state. Believe me, law enforcement is fed up with it. The whole system is so dysfunctional. And he's welcoming in socialism. So the people of Colorado, whether ranchers, farmers, business folks. One man in downtown Denver, he goes, victor, I have over 350 buildings here, 8,000 tenants. We are not, as business leaders, able to sustain what we're doing. The government has so expanded big government, they're taxing and feeding people to near death. And then look, so, you know, I was told earlier on by a consultant, don't bring God into this. You know, just a little bit, it'll hurt, you know, your campaign. I was like, look here, my story, my, the testimony in my life of what God has done. It's in a film. I have books out. I'm not compromising for anything. And to prove my point, a fellow came up to me and said, I saw you in the debate. I said, huh? He goes, I'm not a Christian. I don't have any of that faith. He's an atheist. He said, but when they gave you the final minute of the debate, you could do anything you want. Closing arguments. He said, you prayed. I said, I did. He goes, you took time to pray for your opponents on either side of you who had been attacking you the whole time, even the moderator, and you prayed that Colorado would be healed. I said, I did. This man who's an agent looked at me. He goes, that's exactly why I'm voting for you. I said, help me understand that. He goes, any man that has a conviction that he's willing to do that and stand by it and pray those prayers that would be a great government because he can't be bought, manipulated or compromised. His convictions and character are too strong. So we're shocking everyone out here, but it just goes down with common sense. my background as a, I mean I'm a father, a grandfather, served in the Marine The Core. I've led companies and built teams, multimillion dollar very difficult budgets to handle solutions where most people would even attempt, including rescuing women and children from isis. You know what? This is all I've told people. I love God, I love my family and I love Colorado. And all it requires is honest integrity with a leader, a ah, man with a backbone to make a difference in our state. And the people have rallied behind us. Look, just yesterday we're doing a honking wave and the worst part of Denver most, while they say worse, one of the most liberal parts, if we just gauge the response by people bumping rolling down windows, giving us thumbs up, us giving you know, flags away, T shirts that we're going to win big tomorrow and surprise everybody. So it's, it's an exciting time. And my faith compels me to follow Christ, be obedient, not be bashful, but be bold. My background as a proven leader is exactly what the state needs. And my first decision after one, it shocked everybody in that primary. My first decision was my lieutenant governor pick and I chose a 30 year retired Marine, Colonel who is so squared away and when Laura Trump flew out to interview us, she said the way the state is heading on the verge of financial collapse, it, the moral decline has been horrific. She, she goes, it required sending in the Marines and both of you are here to save the state. And I'll tell you, people feel it, people are excited.
Jenna Ellis What a great testimony. And I so appreciate that your leadership is speaking with such courage, about your faith and not shrinking back, especially in a state like Colorado and you know, someone who grew up there and I still love that state, it's, it's beautiful. And I've seen the policy directions that have been so tragic for that state. And this is exactly why our founder said that we should select and prefer Christians as our leaders. Because when there's righteous leadership, the people rejoice. When there's unrighteous leadership and evil leadership, the people groan. And you know I speak to people at my parents church when I go back to visit, all the time and people there truly want that change back to the biblical values and biblical leadership and to have as you said, common sense policies. And I hope that there is Enough turnout of Christians and even moderates who have those common sense values, even if they don't specifically tie them into biblical values. But enough of, these pastors and churches. And you mentioned, Victor Marks, that, you know, there were a lot of pastors, helping you and that were actually engaging, though. That's really encouraging to hear because so often, often, pastors are hesitant to engage in that. what do you think has been the driving factor to have a lot of these pastors actually stand up and encourage, their congregations to get out and vote? I mean, that's. That's really encouraging for me to hear.
Victor Marx Yeah, I think it's the people in their church, the men. We have had men turn out at my rallies, in droves. Men that normally just look at their wives on election day and say, what bubbles do you want me to fill in? like that's. I'm just talking real world. Most men are busy. You know, like, who do I vote for? These men are coming out there. They have a mission to save their state, if for nothing else, the children. But here's something I've said. And actually, you know, there's a movie called thirteen Hours in a book, and Mark Oz, Geist is featured in there. He's one of my closest friends. He just texted me before I got on the radio with you. And there's a church here, Trace Church, big church in Colorado Springs. Both Mark and I have spoken at for the men's event. Mark just texted me, said, man, the pastor yesterday got up and said that he was convicted. He hasn't taken a stronger stand about the condition of our state and the seriousness of politics. This is, this is what we're seeing across the state. And I gotta tell you, I've been so encouraged, because, you know, this whole thing of separation of church and state, this is what I've told people. This is what I've said in live debates. This is what I've said on many news interviews, local and national. I said that was not meant to keep people of faith out of the public square. It was meant to keep government out of our faith so that we could worship the Lord without interference. And when people try to challenge me about faith and churches, I just go, look here. Our state, your state, young woman. and I love hearing your heart for it because it is so beautiful, right
Jenna Ellis this.
Victor Marx God showed off when he made Colorado. And, I tell folks, look, you want to come against me? My faith in God, it's in. It is the very state model and I ask people come against me, I simply say, do you know the state model in the seal which is on most all doorknobs at the capitol? The big seal, the model of our state in Latin is nil side numiny, which means nothing apart from the providence of God. Nothing without God. I said, It's 150 year anniversary of the founding of our state. All I'm doing is returning to our motto. That's what our founders wanted. So you can't blame me, blame them. And I was asked on a big interview, what's the first thing you're gonna do as governor? I said, if the people elect me, the very first thing I'm gonna do is consecrate our state back to God. Everything else will work out.
Jenna Ellis And I, I so appreciate that. And it reminds me, when you're talking about how beautiful Colorado is, that classic, ah, country song, Colorado that says, and if God doesn't live in Colorado, I bet that's where he spends most of his time. And I grew up listening to that and still think about that. because you know, God, really, his handiwork is just amazing in the beautiful state of Colorado. And it is really tragic to see what has happened to that state. And we're out of time already, Victor. Marks, we've got to take a break here. But again, I just so appreciate your heart for the Lord, the leadership that you're providing. And we need more Christians and pastors to step up and to pray, for these states. I mean Colorado is not too far gone yet. the Lord can always bring us back, California, NewSong York, I mean even some of these really liberal policy, hotbeds of corruption, there is never something that is too far gone for God to save. And if the people turn back to the Lord. And it is my hope and prayer that across this nation in these key elections, Christians will get out and vote our values, vote for Christian leadership, for Christian policies, and make our voices heard to save these great states and this great nation. Victor Marks, really appreciate it. We'll be right back with more. Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today on by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.net give
Jenna Ellis welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis Welcome back. Well, we're still talking about the election tomorrow, and let's welcome in Mark Mitchell, who is the CEO of Honest Polls. And Mark, I don't know if you, caught some of that last segment with Colorado, gubernatorial candidate Victor Marks, but, you know, I thought it was an excellent interview. And he was saying that he hopes that that will be a, an upset, election and, that he will prevail over the Democrat leadership, which is. Really had a stranglehold on Colorado. that would absolutely be an upset if, if Victor Marks prevails. and there, there's a lot of other races across the country that, I know you've been looking at and paying attention to. And while we've been talking quite a bit about whether, you know, the Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate, all of that, are there some of these elections, like Colorado, for example, or even California with Steve, Hilton, running for governor, that may, just may be an upset.
Mark Mitchell first off, I did catch a few minutes of it, and I have pulled for candidates in Colorado and other states like Minnesota, actually talked to Mike Lindell about his race there, quite a bit. And part of the problem is that there's probably no chance at all for an upset there. And yet at the same time, if you care about the values of conservatism, if you care about the Republican Party, you still have to be running good candidates. And it's important to show the contrast with the Democrat candidate. This is what you could have. This is what we believe in, you know, having a strong party in the state and giving people an actual option. And it's crazy how little that happens. There's just, you know, really, they'll run a designated loser, somebody that can get as much fundraising as possible, really stand for nothing. And the state parties are husked because of it. They don't really stand for anything. now as for upsets, you know, I think there. We were talking about this before. I think there will be surprises. the Senate right now is about a 70% Democrat, Democrat pickup chance. And there are about nine polls or nine states where the polls are within the statistical margin of error. Most of them are leaning Democrat, except for places like Kansas in the polling. And they're not all going to go Democrat, I don't think, unless we're seeing a wave election bigger than what currently the polls predict. so it is very possible that Republicans still somehow maintain control of maybe one seat in the Senate. But I don't think it's a mathematical possibility at this point in time. And if there's going to be upsets, it's not going to be Minnesota. I mean, it might be a Kansas. Or even now some Republicans are saying, like, Mississippi might be in play. So, I don't think that's the case. But, I mean, we're talking about a question where, like, a lot of the polling in the last minute has been moving towards Democrats. So they have the momentum now, and that might be where the surprises come from.
Jenna Ellis M And, you know, historically, Republicans like to be election day voters. And so, you know, some of the early returns are shifting, for Democrats. But, it kind of seems like this election maybe is a little bit different. I mean, a lot of Republicans are getting out in advance. so, you know, maybe that's a little discouraging to see, some of those numbers now shifting to Democrats. But when you mentioned, Mark, that there are some kind of designated losers and that, you know, the gop, if they want to win, still have to run good candidates. What do you mean by that in terms of, like, good, good candidate? And what makes, in your mind as a pollster, a good candidate and a good campaign?
Mark Mitchell I'm speaking with very broad brushes here, but I live in NewSong Jersey and I've gone to some local Republican Party events and it's a very safe, blue state. And, you know, I met one of these local candidates that was going to run for state assembly and he had an event and I just was talking to him and, oh, what do you stand for? And there wasn't a lot of answers. It was like, oh, family values and fiscal responsibility. And it's like, okay, but there's a lot of problems in the state. We have, super high tax on, you know, property tax, out of control education, spending. Like, there are problems here. Like, what about, for instance, gun rights are a big, big problem in NewSong Jersey and they're super afraid of getting sort of slandered by that or getting painted by the opponent as one of these far right craziest. And this is a state that Trump was only down by five points in the 2024 election. So it is possible to gain ground if you actually stand for something. But I think in anything remotely purple or slightly blue, everybody is afraid of their shadows. And, you know, I don't think they're getting a whole lot of help from, from party infrastructure, which is being run by consultants. And there's a major grifting operation and it's geared towards Maximizing the amount of money that is raised off of donors. And I think in many circumstances Republican principles can't misalign with the donor interests. That's sort of like one of their major corollaries. And what you get is something that doesn't stand for a lot. And that's one of the reasons Trump was able to come in and gain so much ground in the Republican Party because he quite obviously stood for a lot in 2016 when the party didn't.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, that's 100% accurate. And I think that in 2024, right now, conservatives, well, back in 2024, conservatives wanted Trump to come back and stand for the principles that he stood for in 2016 and actually build that momentum. And we've talked some about the discouragement that the base sort of feels and seeing some of these candidates, ah, like Darlene Graham, that are just sort of mind bogglingly stupid to put up and say, okay, why, why would you run that kind of candidate when we have an opportunity, you know, to actually get someone who maybe would be a, really solid conservative senator for, you know, the next however many decades. Right. and be even more solid than than what Lindsey Graham was. And so, you know, where do you think we're at between the base, you know, understanding that the GOP writ large isn't standing for as much as we prefer and we've had all of these mandates, for Trump from 2016 to 2024. And also though recognizing that a vote for Democrats is a vote for their policies, which would be, according to conservatives and biblical values, obviously much worse. And you know, because I'm hearing in Florida a lot of people who, and this is anecdotal, but still, you know, a lot of people saying, well, you know, would, would be voting for the Democrats and, and allowing David Jolly to win, the governor's race would tell the Republican Party, you've got to revamp and revise and, and run someone actually stronger than a Byron Donalds in four years. And we're willing to wait the four years. how much are you seeing kind of the two different mindsets actually pan out as we're seeing the exit polling.
Mark Mitchell Well, this is an important topic of conversation because a lot of people are discussing it now. There was an op ed last week that Peggy Noonan came out and actually said that the Republican Party, she sounded a lot like Nick Fuentes. And so I did an op ed about, look at that Peggy Noonan and Nick Fuentes agree. And it's like, this whole thing doesn't stand for what the voters want. It needs to be burned down. I'm hoping for a generational loss. Obviously, they have quite different pictures of what they want to build on the other side of that. But the discussion is already happening and I want to step back and give people a little bit of math that might help put this whole thing in perspective. So if you just randomly ask an American on the street, are you a Republican or Democrat, you're only going to get an answer from about 60% of them. And the number of people who identify as Republican is a lot closer to one in four than it is to a half. Right. We're in the high 20s right now. So when you have a lot of the political framing, that's these sort of like red versus blue false dichotomies, they sound really extreme to the other 40% of people who say, no, I hate both parties. I'm an independent, I'm unaffiliated, I'm third party, none of these people represent me, or maybe I'm just not that political. But 40%, a big chunk of the electorate and it keeps growing every day. Now, if you ask those people, who do you lean towards, then some of them will give you an answer. But if you take, if you take, people who say they're Republican, the Republicans are going to get those voters and people are saying, oh, the base isn't turning out. It's like, no, they are. The base is turning out. Trump has an 82% approval rating among Republicans. Strong approve is only 41%. But the Republicans are still going to get in the 90s of those. Now, of the people who say they identify as Democrat, the Democrats are also going to get pretty strongly in the 90s. And there are some Republican defectors, obviously, there are some Democrats too, but the Republican defectors outnumber the Democrats by a few points. And so that's where some of the margin shifts coming from. But the problem is, is that if you take the independents, the people who say they don't like either party, Trump approval 6% strong proof, 21% somewhat. So he's not even at 30% among independents. And that's before leading them. This isn't the Democrat independents. This is Republican and Democrat leading independents are in there. I think it was a 56% strong disapproved. So this is the people that Republicans, they have to convert those voters. That's the people they have to win with. And those are not their base. And those are the people that are Mad they're not turning out. They got angry over Iran, they got angry over the economy and Epstein. And so they look at Republican governance and they don't have a dog in the hunt. They don't care between MAGA and traditional Republicanism. They think neither of it served them. And so that's the people that the Republican Party has to be built around. Now, obviously it has to please the base as well. And Trump just instinctually was able to do this until he wasn't. And when did he lose that ability? It's when his governance started to look like the Republican governance at least 20 or 30 years from the perspective of neoconservatism and leaning in to the whole big business thing. And so unfortunately a lot of those people also have a very high level of mistrust towards the economic system and to the elites. And so one of the main problems is in the polling that the Republicans are seen by most to be the party of big business and big business has too much influence over them. So like, that's a major barrier to reforming whatever this coalition is. Because I'm sure Peggy Noonan would want to see, you know, traditional Reagan economic conservatism, something that Art, ah, Laffer would approve of. And you know, I think a lot of the people who are going to be in this conversation are very sort of firmly entrenched in the neoconservative interventionalism, you know, framework and these things are non starters. And ah, you know, I hate to, you know, rub salt in the wound, but when you look at who's politically organizing, when you say, okay, who's got a movement, who's gaining ground and getting adherence in and having their worldview reflected by, you know, increasingly the people that are gaining power in the political system. It's not really the church, you know, it's not sort of the Cato Institute. It's pretty much Nick Fuentes, like
Jenna Ellis he's,
Mark Mitchell they're writing articles in Wallnua Street Journal now, freaking out because Ted Cruz can't hire staffers without finding a groper. And so I'm being a little hyperbolic there, like obviously, but that's my point, is that they're. The youth understand that this party has its problems. It needs to go in a different direction. And I have polling I haven't released yet. It's coming out this week. We asked America if the, if the party after Trump needs to head more in Trump's direction, more in traditional Republican direction or in a completely different direction. And that's the plurality winner. It's probably going to be a majority among Republicans. So people are looking forward and I've been talking about that with you for a long time that this was coming, that there was going to be a period where people say okay, this movement hit a good run but now somebody's got to carry it forward. And what does it stand for?
Jenna Ellis Yeah.
Mark Mitchell And that's why I've been banging on the table. It needs to stand for at the very minimum government reform and economic populism and we can argue about what else goes in the platform. Probably the smaller the platform the better.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. And you know, and I fully agree with your assessment, you know, writ large of the national gop, you know, some of the, the Trump, the wins and you know, and the losses and some of this, Do you think that there is a difference or maybe a carve out for some of these candidates who ah, like a Victor Marks for example. Let's just you know, take him as the example where he wasn't the establishment GOP candidate. It was an upset in the primary and you know he's running a very different style campaign. And for the people in Colorado at least the Republicans and maybe the independents who are sick of the really, really extreme left leaning policies there that even with you know, the war in Iran, even with affordability, overall, you know, with all of the other national issues they still want to turn out in some of these state level races because a vote for a GOP candidate or a nominee there isn't necessarily going in their mind to, to the national GOP's problems. And they see well I at least need to get out and save my state in a couple of these elections and maybe having a completely different view of say the disaffected Republican voter here in Florida.
Mark Mitchell So we're talking about really big trends, obviously massive generalizations. Then I know some state parties are better, better than others. And when I say better I mean if you like go and randomly talk to one of the people at one of these events like Amfest. I met some people from Minnesota and I was really impressed because they seem to understand the independent viewpoint and that necessarily like this wasn't about maintaining like a unified wall around a traditional set of Republican values. It was about serving the voters. That being said, it seems on average that the Republicans money gets spent from the top down, meaning that large national Political action committee monies where the source of the donor bucks comes from or the NRCC or the NRSC or the rga. And we heard Ken Paxton talk About that. Right, right. On a hot mic. And the problem is, is that it's not directed by his campaign. It's spent by somebody who probably has a national viewpoint on the messaging. And so it's not, it's not really easy for him to run on local issues. Now Senate's a little bit different. You know, it is statewide race, it is a national issue thing, it's a federal election, right?
Mark Mitchell But at the end of the day, like my experience has been that the money is getting spent on candidates who are perceived to be safe, who have a significant amount of money and the consulting, class is going to spend that in a way where they control the narrative. And there aren't, you know, there isn't this ability to be risky and that if they do have an outsider come along, usually they get shut out. Because I've pulled for a lot of these people. They get shut out, they can't get the national money. nobody wants to work with them, they get threatened, they get told that, hey, if you primary this person, you're never going to have a political future here. And then if they somehow win the primary, then everybody just withdraws their support. Like I have a friend who ran in California and he literally had Kevan McCarthy telling all the Republican donors they weren't allowed to donate to this guy. So all ultimately it is a party of the consultants and Democrats have their own problems. Right. But they have a very different structure and incentive alignment system and ultimately a lot of their money, the small donor money, actually gets to the campaign where it's spent a lot more efficiently and they can message locally, which is one of the things that Republicans look at the Democrat races and they're just confounded. How can, ah, this communist win? It's like, well, you know. And
Jenna Ellis we got to take our break here, Mark Mitchell, but you're going to stick with us through the break. We'll continue to talk about the midterms and, you know, all of these races. But the bottom line, it's so important to get out and vote by tomorrow, the election. And we'll be right back. $28 may not sound like much, but to a scared mother considering abortion, it can help provide something incredibly important. A real opportunity to pause and see her baby for the very first time. Today, a woman facing an unexpected pregnancy can reach for her phone, search for abortion pills, connect with a provider online and have the pills delivered directly to her home. She can move from fear toward abortion incredibly quickly. But your gift can help create another opportunity. For just $28 you can help, provide a free ultrasound through PreBorn's Network Clinic. There a woman can see her baby talk with people who will listen to what she's facing with, receive compassionate support and consider another choice before abortion becomes her answer. And when women see their babies through an ultrasound at PreBorn Network clinic, 80% choose life. $28 can help provide one ultrasound. $280 can help provide 10. Reach her before the pill does with your strongest gift. Today dial pound uh250 and say the keyword baby. That's pound250 baby. Or visit preborn.comforward/afr. That's preborn.com forward/afr. All gifts are tax deductible and PreBorn is a five star rated charity.
Jenna Ellis welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis Welcome back. And my special guest, Mark Mitchell, CEO of Honest Polls is still with us and we're talking about the, the midterms. And I'd encourage everyone to get out and vote, by tomorrow and know when your polls ah, close. Know what's on your ballot and get out and vote your values. We have I voter guide through AFA Action that is just one of many great resources that can help inform you on the issues and so that you can exercise your Christian duty and responsibility to engage in our government. And so, Mark, we were talking you know, about just some of these kind of bigger picture things, for the last about 10 minutes we have in the program this morning, I also want to zoom in on the Senate because there was a piece in CNN Politics, where the headline says Democrats are in striking distance that a new cnn, poll shows in four states, that highlight the party's path to Senate majority. And so the states of course are Michigan. This the epitome, I think of a battleground state between El Said and then Republican, Mike Rogers. And that election of course is being looked at as sort of the seminal example of whether people are actually going to vote for socialism and Islam and you know, a bunch of other things that Abdul El said stands for. And then Texas of course between Talarico and Paxton, and then Maine with Susan Collins. And then this one was really interesting to me in deep red Texas, according to CNN, there's no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Senator Roger Marshall at 45%. Even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. voters here, according to cnn, largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices about are about Marshall, much more so than Hamilton. So taken together, CNN says these four states paint a picture of perhaps a Democrat party well positioned to make a play for Senate control.
Mark Mitchell most of the credible modelers that I've seen that are using polls as an input and also bouncing it off of early vote, all have a map that looks like Democrats, 53 seats roughly. And some of them disagree about whether they get to 54. If they get to 52, I think that's reasonable. And I think 50, 50 again with J.D. vance as the tiebreaker. And then, you know, we're not talking about Fetterman and all of this is still mathematically likely. maybe that's like a 1 in 4 chance based on the latest look at the prediction markets. But the major question has been this comes back to the polling and there's always a lot of talk and confusion. And yeah, there are problems with polling too. But then a lot of people also just like to, you know, throw the whole thing out. Right? And it's an important industry. We need it. We can't just throw it out and ignore it. Because even bad pollsters put out useful data. And often there are pollsters that come from bad organizations that have good polls. Right. So New, York Times pollster Nate Cohn, people say, oh, it's the failing NewSong York Times or an evil left wing rag or whatever. And it's like, yeah, his pollster is not that bad though. He actually had Trump winning in one of the national popular votes they put out by a point. And although the battlegrounds were close in 2024, he had some of them going to Trump and that was the most that any media pollster showed. and so they have, I'll say it up 11 in Michigan. They just put out a massive set of state polls and every one of these battlegrounds they have going Democrat. And then not only that, he actually put an article out talking about how everybody saying we're not getting the MAGA voter. I am m. They're in there, you know, there's just so many independents and they're not turning out. They're telling us they're not voting. And it got so bad that he was worried that he was actually understating Republican support and he changed his weighting methodology and then released a look at what all these states would have been if he had not changed his methodology to be more favorable to Republicans. and he had Michigan with Al Said of 16. So now is that going to happen? Like, I don't think so, but I'm just saying it is a blue state that Trump won by not being a traditional Republican. And Mike Rogers is about as traditional Republican as you can get. And so the issue again is all these economically driven independents who don't look at El Sayed and see a communist and who look at Mike Rogers and necessarily see somebody who just reeks of establishment. Is that my opinion? No, but I mean, I think that that's the dichotomy we're seeing. And so this wave of polling that's come out from NewSong York Times roughly matches what Big Data Poll did. And Big Data Poll has traditionally been one of the best pollsters in finding the Trump supporter over the last decade. And of course everybody's attacking him now because they don't like the results now. And I, mean, if you look at the national generic ballot picture, it's not just like one or two pollsters out there showing a Democrat wave. It's really like all the ones that have traditionally been better at predicting maga. I mean, remember, like everybody calls Atlas the most accurate pollster. I would argue with that, because of certain things, but they just have a generic ballot picture with Democrats plus 14, which would be a 17 point shift to the left and one of the top three margin shifts in the last 150 years of American politics. Right. So that's the thing is that if there is, you know, a surprise, it's that maybe a lot of the Senate polls that came out earlier were hedging and showing the races a lot tighter than they ultimately would be if the national picture is correct. And unfortunately I haven't seen any real data that undermines like the national picture. Everybody who's saying the early vote stuff looks good for Republicans is completely ignoring Independents. And you know, it is true Republicans will turn out more than Democrats on election Day, but nationally I have them with about a 6%, advantage. And I don't know if that's enough, especially with independents who just don't look like they're going to show up.
Jenna Ellis Wow. And you know, I mean, this paints a perhaps discouraging picture, but we'll see, you know, tomorrow, in the election and in the results. And so, you know, if, if Democrats are up as, as they, you know, appear to be at least, and if some of these races don't have kind of these upsets for Republicans, where do you think this, this forecast for 2028 and where the GOP mindset needs to be heading into the last two years of Donald Trump. I mean, because after that, I think he will still want to be involved in the gop, but just naturally, I mean, that control is going to have to. And that mantle will have to pass to someone else.
Mark Mitchell Well, he's still going to be the president, and he's still going to be vocal. you know, he's. There's going to probably under 120th Congress, be a lot of investigations. And other than that, I think we're mostly going to see gridlock. And you have forces within the Republican Party. You have people who will want to declare the entire Trump movement a complete train wreck. And let's get back to how we were. You'll see a bunch of people who've liked what Trump has done over the last two years and try to continue and extend that. And then you'll have a lot of people who will rightly acknowledge that Trump had a lot of great things, but the last two years of Trump was something very different. Right. And so those all. I mean, I think those are the main sides of the discussion there. And, you know, with Trump in office, with no. I mean, remember in 2010, Obama got his famous shellacking. He came out and gave a speech about it, and actually, like, pretty intelligently pivoted the next two years of his term into something that was a lot more closely aligned with what the voters wanted. I mean, that is possible under Trump. I don't think it's likely, but that's what, like, people could expect, could reasonably expect after something that we see if it looks as big as what the polls say it is. And so if Trump is reticent to acknowledge this, blames it on fake polls, or says the election's cooked as they're sort of picking apart his administration, which I think they're going to do with a lot of discipline and intent, like, that could get really ugly really fast. And I think we're in for a lot of surprises. Beyond that, it's really tough to predict what's going to happen.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, it's going to be really fascinating, and I'm, really interested to see what actually happens tomorrow, with the, with the elections. Do you think that we're going to know who actually, won for governor of California, or we're going to have to wait until after Christmas?
Mark Mitchell I don't think anybody's going to care by that point, to be honest with you. we're either. It's either going to be. Look at that. Trump isn't back. All the polls were wrong. Somehow which I just based on all the data that's out there I don't see that's likely or it's exactly what everybody says it was going to be in which case we just again gridlock and move forward and well Mark
Jenna Ellis Mitchell yeah, well really appreciate it and and I so appreciate the deep dive and you know really parsing out kind of where all of this is headed. And again it's not too late to change the outcome. We've got to get out and vote. Go to ivoterguide.com that's the AFA Action Resource and there are a lot of other great Christian resources as well and we need to pray for our country and for our state leadership as well. As always you can reach me and my team. Jennafr.net preborn has rescued over 400,000 babies from abortion and every day their Network climbs clinics rescue 200 babies lives. Will you join PreBorn in loving and supporting young moms in crisis? Save a life today. Go to preborn.com afr.
Jenna Ellis We would like to take a moment to thank our sponsor, PreBorn. When a mother meets her baby on ultrasound and hears their heartbeat, it's a divine connection. And the majority of the time she will choose life. But she can't do it without our help. Preborn needs us, the pro life community, to come alongside her. One ultrasound is just $28, and to donate, dial £250 and say the keyword baby or visit preborn.com afr
Jenna Ellis Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time.
Jenna Ellis This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Jenna Ellis Good morning. It is Monday, November 2nd. And the biggest headline this morning is the Learjet plane crash that happened here in Florida in Palm beach county yesterday. confirmed killing all nine on board, and the cause is not yet known. The NTSB has opened an investigation and is expected to have a briefing later today. And so, Secretary Shawn Duffy is also involved in, that investigation. So as we learn more about this, we will have guests on and cover that. But, all that we know so far is that we need to pray for, everyone who has, lost family members who are involved in that. It's always very tragic when we have to read those kinds of headlines. so we are also a day out from the midterms, and, congressional races are very important. There's been a lot of spotlight on, governor's races across the country. President Trump, of course, is going around doing a lot of rallies and trying to rally out the base. And also my former home state of Colorado has a gubernatorial election that is, coming up tomorrow. And so let's welcome in Victor Marks, who is the GOP Colorado gubernatorial candidate. And so, Victor, good morning. And it's so great to speak with you. I've been following, your campaign, since the primary as well. I know a lot of friends in Colorado that, that were following that closely as well. So good morning. And how are things shaping up?
Victor Marx Good morning to you. Well, this is, this is going to be one of the biggest upsets in the nation if we keep doing and seeing what we're seeing. you know, it's been a Cinderella story from the beginning. I entered as a non politician, an outsider, and had literally the GOP establishment against me. The, legacy media, the conservative media, except for one or two people, and of course the Democrats raging against us with over 20 different candidates, including Congress, congressmen, senators, well known people out here, we won, we broke, we broke records of, support and we created an army, our true grassroots army. And it's just what the state is looking for. I don't care if people are Republicans, unaffiliate, and even Democrats are coming out in droves to support us. So this is probably one of the biggest races in the nation. Well, General Mike Flynn said it himself early on. He said this is the governor's reach to watch, could be the biggest upset. So I think the latest poll, which I'm not big on polls, but it has me trailing my opponent by only three points with the unaffiliates, which are the 52% voting bloc of the state, they decide. And, we're excited and continue to be stunned day by day by people's responses.
Jenna Ellis Amazing. Well, and, you know, with, with current Governor Jared Polis, term limited and that leadership, you know, moving out, this is a prime moment in Colorado for some change and maybe going back to where Colorado used to be. historically it was once considered actually a red state. Then it, was considered maybe a competitive purple state. But Democrats have consolidated significant political power. you know, we've talked about on this program quite a bit the Democrats playbook that they tried to specifically, and they succeeded unfortunately, in targeting Colorado and making the policy so leftist that it attracted a lot of people to move into the state. And unfortunately was the first state, one, of the first two, to pass that, constitutional state. Constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana. amendment 64, which I think was the downturn of, of Colorado back in, 2012. And so, what is your argument to Coloradans who, have lived in that state for, you know, their lives? They've seen kind of a lot of these changes and are not happy with the state's policies. how, how much abortion, is unfortunately thriving there. I mean, the, the left really has that stranglehold. what is your argument to, to Coloradans?
Victor Marx Well, there's a certain point where pain is the greatest motivator. And you know what? We started doing rallies from the beginning. We didn't do anything normal. We studied what was happening here in Colorado, what had happened, and it was an insurgency. So quite honestly, we just did a counterinsurgency. We did it Different. And the people of Colorado have spoken. Two questions I ask at every rally and I, the first one is this. When I say rally, I mean our first rally have about 1100 people attending. It's. We're doing something by creating a movement that's never been done before out here. So the two questions I ask is one, how many of you have never been involved in politics? 70% of the people raise their hand, never gone to a rally, never. You know, it's just. Nope. Second, which is the most important, how many of you, even generational Coloradans for the first time in your life are considering having to move out of the state because it's unaffordable and it's not safe and you're sick of no accountability. Under the golden dome at the Capitol, over 70% of, sometimes it's 80, 85% of the people raise their hand. This has been the one constant around the state. And you know what people told me? You'll never reach the Democrats. I said, why not? They're Coloradans too. There are moderate ones that are sick and tired of the aggressive left leaning. And now the Democratic socialist, was a party moving in. And you know what? We had a Democrat hold a fundraiser for us downtown Denver in a hotel that they own. And tons of people came out Democrats, unaffiliates. There's something happening here that, well, just to be frank with you, we believe it's because of prayer. We have had so many people praying for this. every morning at 6:45 people get on a call, pray. We had 21 days of fasting and prayer. Churches for the first time have really, you see the courage in pastors, to have us come in to share their preaching from the pulpits. What matter. And there's m. There's these ballot initiatives that are on the ballot to protect our children from boys entering girl sports and locker rooms, having anyone who traffics a child for sexual have life imprisonment. And the third one, not allow underage girls to have their body, I mean life altering changes to their body. Those three ballot measures are on there. This is what's pulling out people to vote because it's just time for common sense to happen. And people of Colorado, they're sick and tired of this one party rule and watch what's going to happen tomorrow.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, and I love that saying that even the moderates and the Democrats are Coloradans too. And it would seem that everyone in the state would at least want the policies that shape the best living environment, the best liberty and freedom for people, but also protections that the government is actually obligated to provide. And that's, of course, what makes us conservatives, is that we recognize that the government has legitimacy in, promoting good, restraining evil. but then they can go too far as well. And so your Christian faith, Victor Marks, has been central to your work, as you've, expressed. And what's the single biggest thing you believe that Colorado's current leadership has failed to understand about the people that you're hoping to reach and these people that they're currently governing?
Victor Marx Well, if you look at what's happened here, they've just looked over the entire state. They've not cared about Coloradans. And my opponent, who's the current attorney general, his legacy he's leaving is he has sued President Trump 88 times. But you look at our state, over 70% of child rapists, men who are raping children, only get probation in our state. Believe me, law enforcement is fed up with it. The whole system is so dysfunctional. And he's welcoming in socialism. So the people of Colorado, whether ranchers, farmers, business folks. One man in downtown Denver, he goes, victor, I have over 350 buildings here, 8,000 tenants. We are not, as business leaders, able to sustain what we're doing. The government has so expanded big government, they're taxing and feeding people to near death. And then look, so, you know, I was told earlier on by a consultant, don't bring God into this. You know, just a little bit, it'll hurt, you know, your campaign. I was like, look here, my story, my, the testimony in my life of what God has done. It's in a film. I have books out. I'm not compromising for anything. And to prove my point, a fellow came up to me and said, I saw you in the debate. I said, huh? He goes, I'm not a Christian. I don't have any of that faith. He's an atheist. He said, but when they gave you the final minute of the debate, you could do anything you want. Closing arguments. He said, you prayed. I said, I did. He goes, you took time to pray for your opponents on either side of you who had been attacking you the whole time, even the moderator, and you prayed that Colorado would be healed. I said, I did. This man who's an agent looked at me. He goes, that's exactly why I'm voting for you. I said, help me understand that. He goes, any man that has a conviction that he's willing to do that and stand by it and pray those prayers that would be a great government because he can't be bought, manipulated or compromised. His convictions and character are too strong. So we're shocking everyone out here, but it just goes down with common sense. my background as a, I mean I'm a father, a grandfather, served in the Marine The Core. I've led companies and built teams, multimillion dollar very difficult budgets to handle solutions where most people would even attempt, including rescuing women and children from isis. You know what? This is all I've told people. I love God, I love my family and I love Colorado. And all it requires is honest integrity with a leader, a ah, man with a backbone to make a difference in our state. And the people have rallied behind us. Look, just yesterday we're doing a honking wave and the worst part of Denver most, while they say worse, one of the most liberal parts, if we just gauge the response by people bumping rolling down windows, giving us thumbs up, us giving you know, flags away, T shirts that we're going to win big tomorrow and surprise everybody. So it's, it's an exciting time. And my faith compels me to follow Christ, be obedient, not be bashful, but be bold. My background as a proven leader is exactly what the state needs. And my first decision after one, it shocked everybody in that primary. My first decision was my lieutenant governor pick and I chose a 30 year retired Marine, Colonel who is so squared away and when Laura Trump flew out to interview us, she said the way the state is heading on the verge of financial collapse, it, the moral decline has been horrific. She, she goes, it required sending in the Marines and both of you are here to save the state. And I'll tell you, people feel it, people are excited.
Jenna Ellis What a great testimony. And I so appreciate that your leadership is speaking with such courage, about your faith and not shrinking back, especially in a state like Colorado and you know, someone who grew up there and I still love that state, it's, it's beautiful. And I've seen the policy directions that have been so tragic for that state. And this is exactly why our founder said that we should select and prefer Christians as our leaders. Because when there's righteous leadership, the people rejoice. When there's unrighteous leadership and evil leadership, the people groan. And you know I speak to people at my parents church when I go back to visit, all the time and people there truly want that change back to the biblical values and biblical leadership and to have as you said, common sense policies. And I hope that there is Enough turnout of Christians and even moderates who have those common sense values, even if they don't specifically tie them into biblical values. But enough of, these pastors and churches. And you mentioned, Victor Marks, that, you know, there were a lot of pastors, helping you and that were actually engaging, though. That's really encouraging to hear because so often, often, pastors are hesitant to engage in that. what do you think has been the driving factor to have a lot of these pastors actually stand up and encourage, their congregations to get out and vote? I mean, that's. That's really encouraging for me to hear.
Victor Marx Yeah, I think it's the people in their church, the men. We have had men turn out at my rallies, in droves. Men that normally just look at their wives on election day and say, what bubbles do you want me to fill in? like that's. I'm just talking real world. Most men are busy. You know, like, who do I vote for? These men are coming out there. They have a mission to save their state, if for nothing else, the children. But here's something I've said. And actually, you know, there's a movie called thirteen Hours in a book, and Mark Oz, Geist is featured in there. He's one of my closest friends. He just texted me before I got on the radio with you. And there's a church here, Trace Church, big church in Colorado Springs. Both Mark and I have spoken at for the men's event. Mark just texted me, said, man, the pastor yesterday got up and said that he was convicted. He hasn't taken a stronger stand about the condition of our state and the seriousness of politics. This is, this is what we're seeing across the state. And I gotta tell you, I've been so encouraged, because, you know, this whole thing of separation of church and state, this is what I've told people. This is what I've said in live debates. This is what I've said on many news interviews, local and national. I said that was not meant to keep people of faith out of the public square. It was meant to keep government out of our faith so that we could worship the Lord without interference. And when people try to challenge me about faith and churches, I just go, look here. Our state, your state, young woman. and I love hearing your heart for it because it is so beautiful, right
Jenna Ellis this.
Victor Marx God showed off when he made Colorado. And, I tell folks, look, you want to come against me? My faith in God, it's in. It is the very state model and I ask people come against me, I simply say, do you know the state model in the seal which is on most all doorknobs at the capitol? The big seal, the model of our state in Latin is nil side numiny, which means nothing apart from the providence of God. Nothing without God. I said, It's 150 year anniversary of the founding of our state. All I'm doing is returning to our motto. That's what our founders wanted. So you can't blame me, blame them. And I was asked on a big interview, what's the first thing you're gonna do as governor? I said, if the people elect me, the very first thing I'm gonna do is consecrate our state back to God. Everything else will work out.
Jenna Ellis And I, I so appreciate that. And it reminds me, when you're talking about how beautiful Colorado is, that classic, ah, country song, Colorado that says, and if God doesn't live in Colorado, I bet that's where he spends most of his time. And I grew up listening to that and still think about that. because you know, God, really, his handiwork is just amazing in the beautiful state of Colorado. And it is really tragic to see what has happened to that state. And we're out of time already, Victor. Marks, we've got to take a break here. But again, I just so appreciate your heart for the Lord, the leadership that you're providing. And we need more Christians and pastors to step up and to pray, for these states. I mean Colorado is not too far gone yet. the Lord can always bring us back, California, NewSong York, I mean even some of these really liberal policy, hotbeds of corruption, there is never something that is too far gone for God to save. And if the people turn back to the Lord. And it is my hope and prayer that across this nation in these key elections, Christians will get out and vote our values, vote for Christian leadership, for Christian policies, and make our voices heard to save these great states and this great nation. Victor Marks, really appreciate it. We'll be right back with more. Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today on by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.net give
Jenna Ellis welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis Welcome back. Well, we're still talking about the election tomorrow, and let's welcome in Mark Mitchell, who is the CEO of Honest Polls. And Mark, I don't know if you, caught some of that last segment with Colorado, gubernatorial candidate Victor Marks, but, you know, I thought it was an excellent interview. And he was saying that he hopes that that will be a, an upset, election and, that he will prevail over the Democrat leadership, which is. Really had a stranglehold on Colorado. that would absolutely be an upset if, if Victor Marks prevails. and there, there's a lot of other races across the country that, I know you've been looking at and paying attention to. And while we've been talking quite a bit about whether, you know, the Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate, all of that, are there some of these elections, like Colorado, for example, or even California with Steve, Hilton, running for governor, that may, just may be an upset.
Mark Mitchell first off, I did catch a few minutes of it, and I have pulled for candidates in Colorado and other states like Minnesota, actually talked to Mike Lindell about his race there, quite a bit. And part of the problem is that there's probably no chance at all for an upset there. And yet at the same time, if you care about the values of conservatism, if you care about the Republican Party, you still have to be running good candidates. And it's important to show the contrast with the Democrat candidate. This is what you could have. This is what we believe in, you know, having a strong party in the state and giving people an actual option. And it's crazy how little that happens. There's just, you know, really, they'll run a designated loser, somebody that can get as much fundraising as possible, really stand for nothing. And the state parties are husked because of it. They don't really stand for anything. now as for upsets, you know, I think there. We were talking about this before. I think there will be surprises. the Senate right now is about a 70% Democrat, Democrat pickup chance. And there are about nine polls or nine states where the polls are within the statistical margin of error. Most of them are leaning Democrat, except for places like Kansas in the polling. And they're not all going to go Democrat, I don't think, unless we're seeing a wave election bigger than what currently the polls predict. so it is very possible that Republicans still somehow maintain control of maybe one seat in the Senate. But I don't think it's a mathematical possibility at this point in time. And if there's going to be upsets, it's not going to be Minnesota. I mean, it might be a Kansas. Or even now some Republicans are saying, like, Mississippi might be in play. So, I don't think that's the case. But, I mean, we're talking about a question where, like, a lot of the polling in the last minute has been moving towards Democrats. So they have the momentum now, and that might be where the surprises come from.
Jenna Ellis M And, you know, historically, Republicans like to be election day voters. And so, you know, some of the early returns are shifting, for Democrats. But, it kind of seems like this election maybe is a little bit different. I mean, a lot of Republicans are getting out in advance. so, you know, maybe that's a little discouraging to see, some of those numbers now shifting to Democrats. But when you mentioned, Mark, that there are some kind of designated losers and that, you know, the gop, if they want to win, still have to run good candidates. What do you mean by that in terms of, like, good, good candidate? And what makes, in your mind as a pollster, a good candidate and a good campaign?
Mark Mitchell I'm speaking with very broad brushes here, but I live in NewSong Jersey and I've gone to some local Republican Party events and it's a very safe, blue state. And, you know, I met one of these local candidates that was going to run for state assembly and he had an event and I just was talking to him and, oh, what do you stand for? And there wasn't a lot of answers. It was like, oh, family values and fiscal responsibility. And it's like, okay, but there's a lot of problems in the state. We have, super high tax on, you know, property tax, out of control education, spending. Like, there are problems here. Like, what about, for instance, gun rights are a big, big problem in NewSong Jersey and they're super afraid of getting sort of slandered by that or getting painted by the opponent as one of these far right craziest. And this is a state that Trump was only down by five points in the 2024 election. So it is possible to gain ground if you actually stand for something. But I think in anything remotely purple or slightly blue, everybody is afraid of their shadows. And, you know, I don't think they're getting a whole lot of help from, from party infrastructure, which is being run by consultants. And there's a major grifting operation and it's geared towards Maximizing the amount of money that is raised off of donors. And I think in many circumstances Republican principles can't misalign with the donor interests. That's sort of like one of their major corollaries. And what you get is something that doesn't stand for a lot. And that's one of the reasons Trump was able to come in and gain so much ground in the Republican Party because he quite obviously stood for a lot in 2016 when the party didn't.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, that's 100% accurate. And I think that in 2024, right now, conservatives, well, back in 2024, conservatives wanted Trump to come back and stand for the principles that he stood for in 2016 and actually build that momentum. And we've talked some about the discouragement that the base sort of feels and seeing some of these candidates, ah, like Darlene Graham, that are just sort of mind bogglingly stupid to put up and say, okay, why, why would you run that kind of candidate when we have an opportunity, you know, to actually get someone who maybe would be a, really solid conservative senator for, you know, the next however many decades. Right. and be even more solid than than what Lindsey Graham was. And so, you know, where do you think we're at between the base, you know, understanding that the GOP writ large isn't standing for as much as we prefer and we've had all of these mandates, for Trump from 2016 to 2024. And also though recognizing that a vote for Democrats is a vote for their policies, which would be, according to conservatives and biblical values, obviously much worse. And you know, because I'm hearing in Florida a lot of people who, and this is anecdotal, but still, you know, a lot of people saying, well, you know, would, would be voting for the Democrats and, and allowing David Jolly to win, the governor's race would tell the Republican Party, you've got to revamp and revise and, and run someone actually stronger than a Byron Donalds in four years. And we're willing to wait the four years. how much are you seeing kind of the two different mindsets actually pan out as we're seeing the exit polling.
Mark Mitchell Well, this is an important topic of conversation because a lot of people are discussing it now. There was an op ed last week that Peggy Noonan came out and actually said that the Republican Party, she sounded a lot like Nick Fuentes. And so I did an op ed about, look at that Peggy Noonan and Nick Fuentes agree. And it's like, this whole thing doesn't stand for what the voters want. It needs to be burned down. I'm hoping for a generational loss. Obviously, they have quite different pictures of what they want to build on the other side of that. But the discussion is already happening and I want to step back and give people a little bit of math that might help put this whole thing in perspective. So if you just randomly ask an American on the street, are you a Republican or Democrat, you're only going to get an answer from about 60% of them. And the number of people who identify as Republican is a lot closer to one in four than it is to a half. Right. We're in the high 20s right now. So when you have a lot of the political framing, that's these sort of like red versus blue false dichotomies, they sound really extreme to the other 40% of people who say, no, I hate both parties. I'm an independent, I'm unaffiliated, I'm third party, none of these people represent me, or maybe I'm just not that political. But 40%, a big chunk of the electorate and it keeps growing every day. Now, if you ask those people, who do you lean towards, then some of them will give you an answer. But if you take, if you take, people who say they're Republican, the Republicans are going to get those voters and people are saying, oh, the base isn't turning out. It's like, no, they are. The base is turning out. Trump has an 82% approval rating among Republicans. Strong approve is only 41%. But the Republicans are still going to get in the 90s of those. Now, of the people who say they identify as Democrat, the Democrats are also going to get pretty strongly in the 90s. And there are some Republican defectors, obviously, there are some Democrats too, but the Republican defectors outnumber the Democrats by a few points. And so that's where some of the margin shifts coming from. But the problem is, is that if you take the independents, the people who say they don't like either party, Trump approval 6% strong proof, 21% somewhat. So he's not even at 30% among independents. And that's before leading them. This isn't the Democrat independents. This is Republican and Democrat leading independents are in there. I think it was a 56% strong disapproved. So this is the people that Republicans, they have to convert those voters. That's the people they have to win with. And those are not their base. And those are the people that are Mad they're not turning out. They got angry over Iran, they got angry over the economy and Epstein. And so they look at Republican governance and they don't have a dog in the hunt. They don't care between MAGA and traditional Republicanism. They think neither of it served them. And so that's the people that the Republican Party has to be built around. Now, obviously it has to please the base as well. And Trump just instinctually was able to do this until he wasn't. And when did he lose that ability? It's when his governance started to look like the Republican governance at least 20 or 30 years from the perspective of neoconservatism and leaning in to the whole big business thing. And so unfortunately a lot of those people also have a very high level of mistrust towards the economic system and to the elites. And so one of the main problems is in the polling that the Republicans are seen by most to be the party of big business and big business has too much influence over them. So like, that's a major barrier to reforming whatever this coalition is. Because I'm sure Peggy Noonan would want to see, you know, traditional Reagan economic conservatism, something that Art, ah, Laffer would approve of. And you know, I think a lot of the people who are going to be in this conversation are very sort of firmly entrenched in the neoconservative interventionalism, you know, framework and these things are non starters. And ah, you know, I hate to, you know, rub salt in the wound, but when you look at who's politically organizing, when you say, okay, who's got a movement, who's gaining ground and getting adherence in and having their worldview reflected by, you know, increasingly the people that are gaining power in the political system. It's not really the church, you know, it's not sort of the Cato Institute. It's pretty much Nick Fuentes, like
Jenna Ellis he's,
Mark Mitchell they're writing articles in Wallnua Street Journal now, freaking out because Ted Cruz can't hire staffers without finding a groper. And so I'm being a little hyperbolic there, like obviously, but that's my point, is that they're. The youth understand that this party has its problems. It needs to go in a different direction. And I have polling I haven't released yet. It's coming out this week. We asked America if the, if the party after Trump needs to head more in Trump's direction, more in traditional Republican direction or in a completely different direction. And that's the plurality winner. It's probably going to be a majority among Republicans. So people are looking forward and I've been talking about that with you for a long time that this was coming, that there was going to be a period where people say okay, this movement hit a good run but now somebody's got to carry it forward. And what does it stand for?
Jenna Ellis Yeah.
Mark Mitchell And that's why I've been banging on the table. It needs to stand for at the very minimum government reform and economic populism and we can argue about what else goes in the platform. Probably the smaller the platform the better.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. And you know, and I fully agree with your assessment, you know, writ large of the national gop, you know, some of the, the Trump, the wins and you know, and the losses and some of this, Do you think that there is a difference or maybe a carve out for some of these candidates who ah, like a Victor Marks for example. Let's just you know, take him as the example where he wasn't the establishment GOP candidate. It was an upset in the primary and you know he's running a very different style campaign. And for the people in Colorado at least the Republicans and maybe the independents who are sick of the really, really extreme left leaning policies there that even with you know, the war in Iran, even with affordability, overall, you know, with all of the other national issues they still want to turn out in some of these state level races because a vote for a GOP candidate or a nominee there isn't necessarily going in their mind to, to the national GOP's problems. And they see well I at least need to get out and save my state in a couple of these elections and maybe having a completely different view of say the disaffected Republican voter here in Florida.
Mark Mitchell So we're talking about really big trends, obviously massive generalizations. Then I know some state parties are better, better than others. And when I say better I mean if you like go and randomly talk to one of the people at one of these events like Amfest. I met some people from Minnesota and I was really impressed because they seem to understand the independent viewpoint and that necessarily like this wasn't about maintaining like a unified wall around a traditional set of Republican values. It was about serving the voters. That being said, it seems on average that the Republicans money gets spent from the top down, meaning that large national Political action committee monies where the source of the donor bucks comes from or the NRCC or the NRSC or the rga. And we heard Ken Paxton talk About that. Right, right. On a hot mic. And the problem is, is that it's not directed by his campaign. It's spent by somebody who probably has a national viewpoint on the messaging. And so it's not, it's not really easy for him to run on local issues. Now Senate's a little bit different. You know, it is statewide race, it is a national issue thing, it's a federal election, right?
Mark Mitchell But at the end of the day, like my experience has been that the money is getting spent on candidates who are perceived to be safe, who have a significant amount of money and the consulting, class is going to spend that in a way where they control the narrative. And there aren't, you know, there isn't this ability to be risky and that if they do have an outsider come along, usually they get shut out. Because I've pulled for a lot of these people. They get shut out, they can't get the national money. nobody wants to work with them, they get threatened, they get told that, hey, if you primary this person, you're never going to have a political future here. And then if they somehow win the primary, then everybody just withdraws their support. Like I have a friend who ran in California and he literally had Kevan McCarthy telling all the Republican donors they weren't allowed to donate to this guy. So all ultimately it is a party of the consultants and Democrats have their own problems. Right. But they have a very different structure and incentive alignment system and ultimately a lot of their money, the small donor money, actually gets to the campaign where it's spent a lot more efficiently and they can message locally, which is one of the things that Republicans look at the Democrat races and they're just confounded. How can, ah, this communist win? It's like, well, you know. And
Jenna Ellis we got to take our break here, Mark Mitchell, but you're going to stick with us through the break. We'll continue to talk about the midterms and, you know, all of these races. But the bottom line, it's so important to get out and vote by tomorrow, the election. And we'll be right back. $28 may not sound like much, but to a scared mother considering abortion, it can help provide something incredibly important. A real opportunity to pause and see her baby for the very first time. Today, a woman facing an unexpected pregnancy can reach for her phone, search for abortion pills, connect with a provider online and have the pills delivered directly to her home. She can move from fear toward abortion incredibly quickly. But your gift can help create another opportunity. For just $28 you can help, provide a free ultrasound through PreBorn's Network Clinic. There a woman can see her baby talk with people who will listen to what she's facing with, receive compassionate support and consider another choice before abortion becomes her answer. And when women see their babies through an ultrasound at PreBorn Network clinic, 80% choose life. $28 can help provide one ultrasound. $280 can help provide 10. Reach her before the pill does with your strongest gift. Today dial pound uh250 and say the keyword baby. That's pound250 baby. Or visit preborn.comforward/afr. That's preborn.com forward/afr. All gifts are tax deductible and PreBorn is a five star rated charity.
Jenna Ellis welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis Welcome back. And my special guest, Mark Mitchell, CEO of Honest Polls is still with us and we're talking about the, the midterms. And I'd encourage everyone to get out and vote, by tomorrow and know when your polls ah, close. Know what's on your ballot and get out and vote your values. We have I voter guide through AFA Action that is just one of many great resources that can help inform you on the issues and so that you can exercise your Christian duty and responsibility to engage in our government. And so, Mark, we were talking you know, about just some of these kind of bigger picture things, for the last about 10 minutes we have in the program this morning, I also want to zoom in on the Senate because there was a piece in CNN Politics, where the headline says Democrats are in striking distance that a new cnn, poll shows in four states, that highlight the party's path to Senate majority. And so the states of course are Michigan. This the epitome, I think of a battleground state between El Said and then Republican, Mike Rogers. And that election of course is being looked at as sort of the seminal example of whether people are actually going to vote for socialism and Islam and you know, a bunch of other things that Abdul El said stands for. And then Texas of course between Talarico and Paxton, and then Maine with Susan Collins. And then this one was really interesting to me in deep red Texas, according to CNN, there's no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Senator Roger Marshall at 45%. Even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. voters here, according to cnn, largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices about are about Marshall, much more so than Hamilton. So taken together, CNN says these four states paint a picture of perhaps a Democrat party well positioned to make a play for Senate control.
Mark Mitchell most of the credible modelers that I've seen that are using polls as an input and also bouncing it off of early vote, all have a map that looks like Democrats, 53 seats roughly. And some of them disagree about whether they get to 54. If they get to 52, I think that's reasonable. And I think 50, 50 again with J.D. vance as the tiebreaker. And then, you know, we're not talking about Fetterman and all of this is still mathematically likely. maybe that's like a 1 in 4 chance based on the latest look at the prediction markets. But the major question has been this comes back to the polling and there's always a lot of talk and confusion. And yeah, there are problems with polling too. But then a lot of people also just like to, you know, throw the whole thing out. Right? And it's an important industry. We need it. We can't just throw it out and ignore it. Because even bad pollsters put out useful data. And often there are pollsters that come from bad organizations that have good polls. Right. So New, York Times pollster Nate Cohn, people say, oh, it's the failing NewSong York Times or an evil left wing rag or whatever. And it's like, yeah, his pollster is not that bad though. He actually had Trump winning in one of the national popular votes they put out by a point. And although the battlegrounds were close in 2024, he had some of them going to Trump and that was the most that any media pollster showed. and so they have, I'll say it up 11 in Michigan. They just put out a massive set of state polls and every one of these battlegrounds they have going Democrat. And then not only that, he actually put an article out talking about how everybody saying we're not getting the MAGA voter. I am m. They're in there, you know, there's just so many independents and they're not turning out. They're telling us they're not voting. And it got so bad that he was worried that he was actually understating Republican support and he changed his weighting methodology and then released a look at what all these states would have been if he had not changed his methodology to be more favorable to Republicans. and he had Michigan with Al Said of 16. So now is that going to happen? Like, I don't think so, but I'm just saying it is a blue state that Trump won by not being a traditional Republican. And Mike Rogers is about as traditional Republican as you can get. And so the issue again is all these economically driven independents who don't look at El Sayed and see a communist and who look at Mike Rogers and necessarily see somebody who just reeks of establishment. Is that my opinion? No, but I mean, I think that that's the dichotomy we're seeing. And so this wave of polling that's come out from NewSong York Times roughly matches what Big Data Poll did. And Big Data Poll has traditionally been one of the best pollsters in finding the Trump supporter over the last decade. And of course everybody's attacking him now because they don't like the results now. And I, mean, if you look at the national generic ballot picture, it's not just like one or two pollsters out there showing a Democrat wave. It's really like all the ones that have traditionally been better at predicting maga. I mean, remember, like everybody calls Atlas the most accurate pollster. I would argue with that, because of certain things, but they just have a generic ballot picture with Democrats plus 14, which would be a 17 point shift to the left and one of the top three margin shifts in the last 150 years of American politics. Right. So that's the thing is that if there is, you know, a surprise, it's that maybe a lot of the Senate polls that came out earlier were hedging and showing the races a lot tighter than they ultimately would be if the national picture is correct. And unfortunately I haven't seen any real data that undermines like the national picture. Everybody who's saying the early vote stuff looks good for Republicans is completely ignoring Independents. And you know, it is true Republicans will turn out more than Democrats on election Day, but nationally I have them with about a 6%, advantage. And I don't know if that's enough, especially with independents who just don't look like they're going to show up.
Jenna Ellis Wow. And you know, I mean, this paints a perhaps discouraging picture, but we'll see, you know, tomorrow, in the election and in the results. And so, you know, if, if Democrats are up as, as they, you know, appear to be at least, and if some of these races don't have kind of these upsets for Republicans, where do you think this, this forecast for 2028 and where the GOP mindset needs to be heading into the last two years of Donald Trump. I mean, because after that, I think he will still want to be involved in the gop, but just naturally, I mean, that control is going to have to. And that mantle will have to pass to someone else.
Mark Mitchell Well, he's still going to be the president, and he's still going to be vocal. you know, he's. There's going to probably under 120th Congress, be a lot of investigations. And other than that, I think we're mostly going to see gridlock. And you have forces within the Republican Party. You have people who will want to declare the entire Trump movement a complete train wreck. And let's get back to how we were. You'll see a bunch of people who've liked what Trump has done over the last two years and try to continue and extend that. And then you'll have a lot of people who will rightly acknowledge that Trump had a lot of great things, but the last two years of Trump was something very different. Right. And so those all. I mean, I think those are the main sides of the discussion there. And, you know, with Trump in office, with no. I mean, remember in 2010, Obama got his famous shellacking. He came out and gave a speech about it, and actually, like, pretty intelligently pivoted the next two years of his term into something that was a lot more closely aligned with what the voters wanted. I mean, that is possible under Trump. I don't think it's likely, but that's what, like, people could expect, could reasonably expect after something that we see if it looks as big as what the polls say it is. And so if Trump is reticent to acknowledge this, blames it on fake polls, or says the election's cooked as they're sort of picking apart his administration, which I think they're going to do with a lot of discipline and intent, like, that could get really ugly really fast. And I think we're in for a lot of surprises. Beyond that, it's really tough to predict what's going to happen.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, it's going to be really fascinating, and I'm, really interested to see what actually happens tomorrow, with the, with the elections. Do you think that we're going to know who actually, won for governor of California, or we're going to have to wait until after Christmas?
Mark Mitchell I don't think anybody's going to care by that point, to be honest with you. we're either. It's either going to be. Look at that. Trump isn't back. All the polls were wrong. Somehow which I just based on all the data that's out there I don't see that's likely or it's exactly what everybody says it was going to be in which case we just again gridlock and move forward and well Mark
Jenna Ellis Mitchell yeah, well really appreciate it and and I so appreciate the deep dive and you know really parsing out kind of where all of this is headed. And again it's not too late to change the outcome. We've got to get out and vote. Go to ivoterguide.com that's the AFA Action Resource and there are a lot of other great Christian resources as well and we need to pray for our country and for our state leadership as well. As always you can reach me and my team. Jennafr.net preborn has rescued over 400,000 babies from abortion and every day their Network climbs clinics rescue 200 babies lives. Will you join PreBorn in loving and supporting young moms in crisis? Save a life today. Go to preborn.com afr.
Jenna Ellis looks ahead to Election Day with two guests examining the stakes for Colorado and the country. Colorado gubernatorial candidate Victor Marx discusses his outsider campaign, the concerns he hears from voters, and how faith, prayer, public safety, affordability, and protecting children have shaped his message. He also explains why he believes churches and people of faith should engage in public life.Then Mark Mitchell, CEO of Honest Polls, breaks down the midterm polling and the races that could determine control of the Cindy. He discusses independent voters, candidate quality, the Republican Party’s future, and why polling points to a challenging night for Republicans. Together, the conversations offer a look at the issues and political forces to watch as voters head to the polls.The program also opens with a remembrance of the victims of a fatal Learjet crash in Florida and a call to pray for their families.
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