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Examining Poll Accuracy and Conservative Non-Participation in Surveys
And God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time. This is Jenna Ellis in the morning.
Jenna Ellis Good morning. Well, we are less than two weeks away from the midterms and early voting has already started in a number of states. And so seeing what those exit polls are showing, may give some insight into how accurate the polls actually are. And that's always, you know, kind of the the Magic 8 Ball or the you know, kind of projections that pollsters have. And everybody kind of wants to read the tea leaves and say, okay, can we project actually what's going to happen, so that we kind of get advanced knowledge of how the elections are going to go. But we've Learned especially since 2016, that sometimes the polls aren't necessarily accurate. And it's fascinating to me because I've started to get, even as of, you know, several weeks ago, starting to get some of these calls and some of these, you know, hey, participation, whatever, I never answer them. And I don't know about you, but I just think, you know, I don't want to talk to these people. Maybe I should because then they could hear, you know, from a conservative. But I think that that's the majority of Republicans, more so than the Democrats, tend to not respond to some of these survey questions. And so it's interesting to see what the polls versus the exit polls are showing. And Frank Luntz, you remember, him as one of the, the pollsters that said and admitted that he got 2016 wrong because he trusted the, the exit polling actually. And he asserted on CNN this week that he skeptical the current polling is accurate.
Skepticism Towards Polls and Underestimation of Trump Voters' Engagement
And I just found this conversation a little bit fascinating, especially that he's willing to have this on CNN and kind of dumping cold water on CNN's viewers dreams of, you know, this massive blue wave. obviously we'll see. But listen to what he had to say.
Bob Good What do you think the polls may be missing? Do you think they're, they're under sampling the kind of voter that Trump usually brings out sort of non engaged voters that, that may not respond to a phone call from a pollster.
Speaker D We know that they don't respond respond to phone calls. We know that in the exit polling back in 2016. I say this publicly because I want people to hear this. Now I teach at West Point. I cannot lie. Cheaters steal the cadets. Can't. I can't. I got 2016 Wong. I believed in the exit polls, Trump voters walked away, refused to participate because they thought that it was against them. It's out that the polls were all biased and that's what Republicans are being told right now. Don't believe the polls. They're not accurate. Well, they may be. We're about to find out.
Assessing Turnout Metrics and the Challenges of Accurate Political Polling
But I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They're less likely to believe the polls are happening. But I'm most interested in turnout in the end. And there are ways to measure it. And I'm not convinced that they're doing it, that they're polling how the electorate overall feels and not polling the people actually going to participate. But in the end, how do you get around that though?
Speaker D that's why you have to do focus groups. That's why you have to do one on one interviews. I can tell by looking at you if you're going to participate or not. And these are people who are counted in the polls, but I know they're not going to vote. Well, they sit like this. Their hands are folded and they don't really care. And they're looking down and looking around because they're not engaged, they're not involved. And turnout determines everything. And I ask the viewers, pay attention to how they've asked the questions about turnout. It's not whether you say you're going to vote or not because people lie. How interested are you in the election, number one. Number two is how often do you collect election news, political news, and number three, how often do you talk politics to your friends and neighbors? Those are three essential questions in determining turnout. I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don't ask it.
Jenna Ellis Interesting. Well, let's welcome in former congressman Bob Good, from the great state of Virginia. And Bob what do you make of that assessment?
Difficulties in Modern Polling and Historical Examples of Inaccurate Projections
Obviously, turnout is all that does matter who actually votes. The polls are just pretty predictions and, you know, trying to get an estimate of how things are going to go before everything is actually counted, or you know, a month from now when California finally gets around to counting it. So, what do you make of what Frank Lunt, suggested about the importance of asking different types of questions?
Bob Good Well, polling is obviously very difficult to do because to your point, and you're leading about how you don't answer or you don't participate, who answers the phone anymore from a phone number that they don't know? How do they get anybody to answer the phone and participate? Nobody has landlines anymore. So you're calling people cell phones. And most of us are conditioned not to answer the phone, to take a call from somebody that we don't know or a number that we don't recognize. And then to your point, Republicans are particularly conservative. Republicans tend to be distrustful of the government, of the system, to be more skeptical, to be more cynical, if you will. where Democrats, seem left leaning, voters seem to be more trusting of the system, if you will. So you know, I tend to get text messages asking me to participate in polls and I don't want to click on links and I don't want to participate. I'm distrustful of that as well. So I don't participate in poll outreach when it comes to me, typically by text message. And I want to, is it legitimate? Is it real? Do I really want to click on this link? I don't know who's sending this to me, am I being targeted or what have you. But that said, it's really difficult to conduct accurate polling because you're trying to guess, okay, how many Republican leaning voters should I reach out to, how many Democrat leaning voters, how many independents, how many swing voters, centrists, moderates in the middle that go back and forth, how much do I sample and what's going to be the accurate reflection of who actually participates on election day. So it's really challenging to do. We know that some pollsters have an agenda, they have a bias. Of course they're human. They're just like you and I and have their opinions and their, and their biases or their prejudices, if you will, in terms of parties and candidates and so forth. but there have been classic examples. I'm a little older than you, Jenna, and I can remember 2004 in particular.
Critique of 2004 Exit Polls and Allegations of Election Engineering
2004 in particular when all the exit polling seemed to indicate throughout the day, The Election Day 2004, between Jon Kerry and Bush, w. Bush's first reelection campaign, all the exit polling indicated that Kerry supposedly was going to win. And there was so much sadness and gloom and doom. You could hear it in the voices of all the analysts and the pundits and so forth on the Republican, the conservative side. And then finally in the day when the results started to come in, Bush won, somewhat comfortably. And I can remember Dick Morris saying on one of the leading channels, this was fraud. This was election engineering. There's no way the exit polls could be this wrong by accident. They were trying to orchestrate an outcome in Jon Kerry's favor by. I can remember him saying that on national television the evening of Bush's reelection in 2004.
Jenna Ellis Wow. And, and isn't it amazing that you know, nobody was, indicting him or calling for lawfare at the time and all that? You know, I mean, they're allowed to do that. but then, you know, when, whenever Republicans are questioning the system, then you know, suddenly, you know, we're. We're insurrectionists and all of this. But, you know, but it begs the question then, because obviously polls can be, can be wildly off and they're only as good as, ultimately their methodology or possible indicators of predictions.
Elections Integrity Concerns and the Skewed Perception of Polls as Bandwagon Fallacies
But they're not a gold standard to say, okay, this is a surefire metric to determine the outcome. It all does depend on who actually shows up and obviously, whether or not the elections themselves are safe and secure. And we don't have people voting in elections who shouldn't. But, but also, you know, to, to this point, I mean, I. A Colorado area code phone number, my cell phone that I've had, you know, years and decades, right? And even though I've moved to Florida and so I still get a lot of the survey questions from, Colorado pollsters. And so if I wanted to give my opinion on that, I could, but that would then be inserting my opinion and honestly skewing a poll for an election that I'm no longer eligible to vote in because I'm in Florida and I'm not a Colorado registered voter anymore. even though at actually at my old address, mail in ballots still show up, which is a whole other problem. But, you know, but the point is we, when we're talking about the midterms and when we're talking about, the. Any election, people, even President Trump, I mean, everybody knows he watches the polls like a hawk and it almost Seems like polls are just these bandwagon fallacies that try to skew public perception in favor of what they want instead of necessarily being any sort of accurate predictor.
Polls Influencing Perception Versus Reflecting Reality in Elections
And do you find, you know, especially with your time in D.C. do you find that a lot of the polls are trying intentionally, perhaps to sway public perception more than actually get it, trying to get a grasp on what's actually going on?
Bob Good I, have no question that that does occur, that does happen and we've seen it. It's rarely where you see, gosh, the Republican strength was overestimated, it was too optimistic of polling in Republicans favor. That's not the way you see it. More often than not, it's Republicans who are underestimated or under accounted. The sample didn't include enough Republican leaning voters and so forth. So I think the polls do mean something, but they certainly don't mean everything. Legitimate, honest polling that's trying to be accurate and there are certainly those that are trying to do so without an agenda per se. It does mean something. It can, like I'll just give an example of where we are today. So in North Carolina, where the polls have consistently shown in the Senate race there that unfortunately the former Governor Cooper is, you know, 5 to 10 points ahead, or Ossoff in Georgia, 5 to 10 points ahead consistently, I think those probably mean something, unfortunately for conservatives like you and I. However, when you've got a poll for, let's say Michigan or for the Senate race there or the, or the main Senate race with Susan Collins, you know, those that are within 2 or 3 points, the polls are just tell you that it's close basically. So it could be a three or four point win for either side. They just can't be that precise. They can't get it down because they really don't know who's going to vote.
Analyzing Poll Inaccuracies and the Potential for a False Sense of Security
They don't know how the late breaking voters are going to swing or which way they're going to go, the direction they're going to go. And so they give you some indication they're valuable to some extent, but they're certainly far from accurate, if you will, or perfectly accurate as we've seen time and again.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, as we're heading into the midterms then, and we've seen, you know, where these polls were wildly inaccurate in 2016 and then even in 2024 where everybody said it was going to be so close between, you know, Trump and Kamala Harris and then, you know, he, he won an absolute landslide. I think some of those, those results have given Republicans maybe a false sense of security, like, oh, the polls are bad, but they're always bad and we're going winning anyway. I mean, I've heard from some commentators that, well, well, a lot of the. Even conservative polling, or polls that we would tend to cite, even real clear politics, and some of those say that, the Democrats are up by at least several points and likely will take the House back. Well, you know, that's just the poll and we can't, you know, that's always skewed. And so they almost have this false sense of security instead of pushing for the turnout. And so where do you advise that people need to be wise, when they're advocating for turnout and to not necessarily just ignore the polls, but to kind of take that with perhaps a giant grain of salt on either side.
The Critical Role of Turnout and Enthusiasm for Republican Base Motivation
Bob Good You said the key word there two or three times. Turnout, turnout, turnout, enthusiasm of the base getting the. And that's where I think, you know, President Trump, we'll see which way the impact, you know, 15, couple of weeks from now, we'll find out what the impact was of him making the rally or, to me, election about himself, him doing all the rallies and so forth, him traveling like he is and reminding voters of himself and asking folks to vote based on, as if he was on the ballot. but turnout, turnout, turnout is the key and, getting your base to turn out. And where I'm concerned, as a conservative, as a Republican, obviously voter, if you're a conservative, is, is the enthusiasm or the motivation of the base. The Democrats are motivated because they're out of power, they're motivated because they don'. So I think they're going to turn out in full force. And I think a lot of these early voting indications are showing that in terms of early voting is up in a lot of places, from other elections. And I'm not sure what's going to drive and motivate the Republican base to turn out. Ah, other than the fact that, hey, they're not as bad as the Democrats, the Democrats are worse.
Republican Enthusiasm Deficit Compared to Democratic Motivation in Elections
The Democrats. Every place where the Republicans have fallen short in the past two years, Democrats would have been worse. And everything good that Trump and the Republicans have done in Washington over the past two years, Democrats wouldn't have done any of that. But, is that sufficient to motivate Republicans to turn out? So you're exactly right. Turnout is the key. Ah. And we can't take anything for granted because I do think, that Democrats have an Enthusiasm advantage just because of the party out of power.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, yeah. Which, which is so frustrating, honestly. I mean, and I think personally that, you know, if. If Trump and especially, Congress had fulfilled a lot of the promises and what I think was a clear mandate in 2024, that we would have a lot more enthusiasm for the Republican Party from the base. I mean, going into right before COVID you know, when everything dramatically changed, of course, I mean, there were such enthusiasm for President Trump, and it was almost like there's no way he could lose because the economy was going strong. Everybody was so happy about this, you know, giant turnaround, and there was a revitalization among conservatives that were not just going to be, pushed out or, you know, kind of, pushed back and boarded up into our churches where we had to whisper our politics, you know, between, between, you know, closed doors and all this. and so there was that enthusiasm, and that enthusiasm was reignited in 24.
Dampening of Republican Enthusiasm and Messaging Challenges for Turnout
But there's been, honestly a dampening. And I know that some listeners, and I've heard from, you know, a lot of you, who said, well, I'm still enthusiastic, and, and that's great, and I'm glad that you are, and I think we need to be enthusiastic for the principles overall. But we can't just pretend that there isn't a lack of enthusiasm, generally speaking, particularly among young voters. And that's what the surveys are suggesting as well. And, and I had on a, pollster from Honest Polls, Mark Mitchell earlier in the week, you know, who was. Was, talking about how, the view of a lot of these voters when you're talking about turnout is not just about the messaging of, the gop, but that, you know, we're here in the last two weeks before midterms, less than two weeks. and the gop, in his opinion, really can't do anything necessarily in this last timeframe to affect turnout. And his opinion was they should have listened, you know, a year ago on, the Iran war, and, you know, they should have listened and done more things on domestic policy than carrying that as the main issue into the midterms. Do you think that this is kind of a foregone conclusion at this point, or is there something that in this last two weeks, if the White House gets its messaging together, could do? I mean, I think it was just a ridiculous distraction to appoint a new press secretary regardless.
Unforced Errors and Past Policy Fumbles Impacting Conservative Enthusiasm
I mean, it didn't even have to be as big of a disaster as, Katy, Zakaria. But it really Just was ultimately a distraction that Republicans didn't need.
Bob Good Yeah, I think that was, an unforced error of epic proportions. I don't understand what happened with her appointment. I don't understand what happened with seemingly her being thrown under the bus and being dismissed so quickly. You either drop the ball on selecting her and vetting her and preparing her, or she just was totally incapable. And so you miss, you know, where was your ability to assess that before you made this decision? And why did you bail so quickly? But so, yeah, I don't think there's a lot that Republicans can do in two weeks to effectuate the outcome of the election. And I think there's this risk of being desperate with these, you know, Hail Marys that are being thrown, particularly by the president with some of the things that he's doing. There are things, you know, the sort of the October surprise, if you will, in the sense that there's things beyond our control that could happen. Unexpected, uncontrollable things that can happen in the country that can change the trajectory of an election. But in terms of Republicans be able to orchestrate, I think that'll be difficult. I go back to something that you and I talked about going back two years ago. Republicans fumbled the ball with going big and bold and courageous in conservative policy pursuit of when they had full control of government. They didn't use, reconciliation to cut spending, to shrink government, to put the pressure on the moderates within the party. All the pressure was on the conservatives to conform and surrender and obey and submit. You targeted conservatives in the primaries. You targeted people like Ralph Norman and Chip Roy. You targeted people like Thomas Massie in the primaries.
Disillusionment Among Conservatives and Primary Targeting Concerns
You refilled the swamp with the worst kinds of Republicans, just like Darlene Graham or whomever it might be. And so I think conservatives are disillusioned. They're disappointed, in policy or lack thereof. they're disappointed in the way that conservatives have been targeted in primaries and so forth and threatened and intimidated and bullied into conformity and compliance in Congress. And so I think they're going to have a turnout problem.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. Well, let's take a break here. We're going to continue, to talk about the midterms and, potentially the strategy for conservatives moving forward if the midterms ultimately do not see, Republicans maintaining control of both chambers and, the White House. Obviously, Trump has two more years, but I think this is going to set up a really big, ah, fight starting November 4th. But I'm talking with former Congressman Bob Good, who also was unreasonably and ridiculously targeted. Targeted by President Trump. And I wish that you were still in Congress because you could, be making a difference there. But we're grateful that you're talking about these things and we will be right back.
Listener Support and Midterm Election Analysis: Turnout and Conservative Enthusiasm
Jenna Ellis Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. We please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.netgive. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis Well, I'm here with my special guest this morning, former Congressman Bob Good, from the great state of Virginia. We're talking about the midterms, the fact that turnout is the number one issue, obviously for an election. What may be suppressing conservative turnout and, what may be driving enthusiasm for Democrats. Ah, which is just baffling when you think about what socialism actually does. But, you know, when you actually get down to what people are concerned about, even here in my home state, Ababa, Florida, you know how Byron Donald's handle handled the primary by refusing to debate running just on Trump's endorsement, basically saying, you know, didn't matter, I'm coordinated, I'm going to be the next future governor. He really turned off a lot of conservatives who are now expressing that even in early voting, they're writing in someone else or they're even, turning to voting for the Democrat in some cases that I've seen online, just because they want to teach the Republicans a lesson and say, okay, better in their view, and I fully disagree with this, but I understand the perspective.
Conservative Frustration with GOP Leadership and Perceived Betrayal of Principles
They say better to have, you know, four years of a Democrat and kind of regather the GOP so that maybe we can oust some of these people who really aren't for what we're for as conservative policy anymore, then to just go along and enable the status quo and basically reward a Trump coronation. so, you know, that's, and that's just one instance here in Florida. You know, we, you talked before the break about, Trump, you know, actually making it a mission to oust, some of the people on his own team, you included, who are phenomenal conservatives instead of targeting the actual enemies. And I think that a lot of this as well is just so frustrating to people who have seen the lawfare against Trump supporters. They've seen the attacks from the four years we had under Biden against, so many conservatives, just for being pro life, for being pro conservative, for being pro Trump. And then you have. And I want to play this clip, from Senator, ah, Slotkin, who is a Democrat, who is literally saying the quiet part out loud and saying, and this is what they're planning, that if the Democrats attain power again, then they're going to do what they did during the four years of Biden by targeting Trump supporters, and conservatives with lawfare, but they're going to do it even more harshly so that nobody will want to work for Republicans again. And this is just insane. But listen to this. This is cut three.
Concerns Over Weaponization of Power and Lawfare Against Political Opponents
Jenna Ellis So that's what I'm saying. I want to look at these signature cases and not just focus on the president, but on the people who enabled him. I want young people coming out of school to say, should I go work for the Trump administration? Like that sounds fun. I might get an opportunity. Opportunity. I want them to be like, that might be buying myself a ton of problems that I don't want. And so let me avoid participating in that. I want that deterrence message.
Jenna Ellis I mean, that's insane.
Bob Good yes, it is. And to your point, they're saying the quiet part out loud. They're acknowledging, they're not even pretending anymore that how they want to weaponize power, for political reasons, to target political opponents, to go after those who disagree with them, to silence, opposition. They want to do what they did already during the Biden administration, where Biden's Department of Injustice under Merrick Garland, as we know, targeted pro life, peaceful pro life protesters in Pennsylvania and put people in jail. They targeted Catholics practicing their faith in Richmond, Virginia. And they said, no, it was just one rogue field office. And now investigations subsequently in the Trump administration have revealed that it was, it was pervasive throughout the entire FBI, during Biden's time. as we know, they targeted parents as showing up school board meetings because they were concerned about what was being taught to their kids and the indoctrination and the policies in their school systems. and they arrested parents for doing that. That is the mentality of the left. That's the mentality of the Democrat Party. and Slotkin is just saying it, she's acknowledging it. and that is a consequence of elections. Because while, you know, we get told every two years, every four years, hey, this is the most important election of our lifetime. And that is used by both sides to drive out base turnout by scaring Folks, this is the most.
Tribalism in Politics and the Escalating Use of Power Against Opponents
So in other words, you have to be tribal and you have to vote for your party no matter what, no matter how bad or how disappointing it might be with them, because this is the most important election ever, and the other party is even worse. And that's certainly true M. When you're talking about how terrible the Democrat Party is. But the administration, the executive branch, in the continued on both sides, unfortunately, of ignoring the Constitution, ignoring the limits of executive power, ruling by emergency, ruling by executive, decree, if you will, and a willingness to target and go after political opponents. The Democrats took it to another level under the Biden administration. They're saying right now, if they get power again, they'll do it to a whole other level once again. and, Slotkin is confirming that, of course, she's an ambitious person who has political ambitions of her own and talking about how she would use power, how she would wield power to go after her political opponents if she were entrusted with more power by the people of Michigan or the people of, this country if she runs for president.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. And, you know, so when we're talking about turnout, I mean, these issues, to me, as a conservative and also, you know, somebody who was targeted by lawfare from a lot of different directions and had to spend a lot of time, effort, money, you know, financial resources, all of this defending that these issues, to me are way bigger than any, problems that, or disagreements that we may have within conservatives or even disappointments of Trump. Like, are there things that I can rightly criticize? Absolutely.
Comparing Political Choices and the Consequences of Disengagement
But by comparison, I mean, the difference between what we have in Donald Trump versus what we would have had in Kamala Harris, like, there's no question, and I'm really glad that everyone turned out how they did in 2024. And, and so, again, I don't understand this whole mentality that, you know, we're going to teach Republicans a lesson by voting in the people that literally want to imprison us, want to destroy our livelihoods, want to target us, want to come after us and our families. I, mean, that's just beyond insane to me that when you have not only the track record of the Biden administration, but now you have people like Senator Slotkin and others, you know, who are, who are just saying the quiet part out loud, and advocacy groups that have, that have literally formed just in order to take the bar licenses away from anyone who dares represent Trump or Republicans, and they've specifically formed to target, you know, a lot of these, these lawsuits why on earth would anyone suggest that some other in house disagreement is more important and is worth sitting out the election or even way worse voting for these people when you have such a contrast? And I don't understand, Bob Good. How Republicans are not messaging this better.
Critique of Republican Policies as Socialist Populist and Impact on Base Enthusiasm
Bob Good Well, I can understand where it's coming from. In other words, I'm not arguing with your ultimate conclusion on what you think voters ought to do, but I can understand where it's coming from. If you believe that one party is just driving the bus off the cliff at a slower pace, than the other party, that the Democrats are driving the bus off the cliff at 100 miles an hour, Republicans are slowing it down to 90 miles an hour, when they're in control, but they're not turning the bus around. And I'll give you an example of that. Jenna, and you saw this a couple of weeks ago, JD Vanches asked to find socialism. Hey, can you define socialism? What is socialism? And he says, this is pretty close to a quote. He says, well, it's really hard to do. I think it's, you know, replacing American workers with foreign workers. And I think it's girls and women's sports. Well, I, first of all, I disagree with both of those policies. you know, that we ought not to replace American workers with foreign workers. We ought not to be allowing, boys or men to play girls or women's sports, of course, but that's not socialism. And I think that the reason why he was hesitant to define it is because he would have impugned the policies of the Trump White House. Trump advanced policies where we're taking, you know, government ownership strikes and private companies, where we're paying moms to stay home and take care of their kids, where we're promising $5,000 checks to everybody if we win the election, when we're spending more than Democrats were spending when they were in power, when we're targeting conservatives. you know, and I could go on and on, but, I think Republicans are pursuing socialist populist, like policies with a little as socialist, that that's what's hurting the enthusiasm for the base.
Need for Republican Party Change and Addressing Conservative Disappointment
And so, you know, I think that you need a dramatic change in the Republican Party, not more of the same and not to affirm, what's been going on and what's been happening, as if it's okay when you take conservatives votes for granted every four years we need you in the general, or every two years in the general, we don't want you in primary. But you got to Come home in general, because this is the most important election ever and the Democrats are worse than Republicans. That's not a real motivating, enthusiastic message to drive turnout on the Republican side.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, and that's, that is definitely fair. And I, and I do understand that sentiment. I mean, I understand why the people in Florida, for example, you know, going back to my, my hometown, you know, hypothetical or home state? Hypothetical. That. Well, it's not even hypothetical, it's reality. But your example, I should say that I understand why people who were dismissed completely in the primary as if they don't matter, now they're saying, well, you do matter, and now you have an obligation and a duty and responsibility. How dare you not vote for the person that brushed you off in the primary? And that's how it, it feels. And that's how it feels to a lot of people, overall, not just with the primaries, but with all of these policies that the things that we did turn out for in 2024 aren't being prioritized. And we're going, well, you know, what was, what was our vote used for then? Okay, yes, to stop Kamala Harris from getting in office, but what are we actually doing to advance the policies that we voted for?
Evaluating Election Outcomes and the Future of the Republican Party
And, and there are some, you know, that still say, oh yeah, I voted for this and I'm really happy on, you know, XYZ thing of Trump. And I think that there are some wins we can certainly point to, but overall, this hasn't been the enthusiastic second term that a lot of us were hoping for. I mean, you know, you and I both, and we got dinged, privately and professionally, you more than me for this one, for supporting Ron DeSantis in the, the primary in 2024. And I can't help but say that had he been nominated and elected, we would be in a very, very different situation in this country right now. Primarily because just, you know, take all of the hypothetical wins that I think would have been reality under his presidency, but he would have had another four years. we're rapidly heading into this lame duck territory with Trump that as soon as the midterms are over, and we're already seeing shades of this, as soon as the midterms are over, there is going to be an internal power struggle and an all out war between the old establishment GOP and the people who are just over the Trump era completely versus the MAGA Inc. Trump loyalists who want him and his endorsements to still reign supreme over the gop. And that is going to be an Absolutely nasty fight. And I'm not sure that that's going to be one that whoever the Republican nominee is, whether that's Vance or someone else in 2028, is ultimately going to prevail on the ticket. or the combination of factors will make it more likely that a Democrat wins in 28. What do you think?
Critique of Trump's Nomination Over DeSantis and Republican Party Strategy
Bob Good Well, I think you made some excellent points that I'd like to follow up and respond to. Number one, you're right. What. What a terrible mistake was made, in 2024 with the nomination of Trump over DeSantis. Instead of having two years of courageous conservative leadership, with looking at six years of an incumbent president continuing to lead his party, we've got what we have today. And I think the best chance Republicans have to lose in 28 is if whomever is nominated is seen as an extension or a perpetuation of the Trump White House. So I think you need a fresh face, like a DeSantis as our nominee in 2028 in order to win the White House and not turn it over to Democrats, as historically happens when the president can't or won't run again in terms of what we've done with candidates and parties. The best example I can give you, by the way, is South Carolina. You had a courageous conservative, Ralph Norman, who was positioned to win that republic, that runoff, to become the Senate nominee. And instead, you had the Trump machine smear him in the final days and target seniors with ads saying that Ralph Norman was going to take away Social Security to give us Darlene Graham, who. What we know about her, she supports her last name is Graham. We know that. We know she didn't seem to like Trump before. We know that she hasn't voted in Republican primaries and she supported pro choice candidates. so what do we know about her?
Turnout Challenges and the Debate Over Voting Based on Party Versus Principles
We don't know anything about her. But they are told, no matter what they did to Ralph Norman, you must vote for her because she's not a Democrat, and the Democrats will be worse. Now, I suspect she'll win in red state South Carolina, hopefully won't give up a Senate seat there. but that's what's happened over the past two years. And that's why I think that Republicans have a turnout issue here in this election, here in two weeks.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. So what's your personal perspective and advice for listeners who can see, you know, all sides of this, and, you know, we do need turnout, but there are frustrations there. You know, it is understandable where everybody's position is. I mean, is your perspective that People should vote anyway for the Republican, the conservative ticket, because it's, it's going to prevent the alternative or you know, is there a different moral contemplation in your view?
Bob Good Well, I'll take that last part that you touched on, the moral component of it.
Abandonment of Moral Issues by Republican Party and Individual Voter Responsibility
The Republican Party at large in my home state, in Virginia and certainly nationally as well, has abandoned the moral issues. The things that drove many of us, our conservative principles, our biblical worldview, was issues of life and morality and marriage and so forth. And the party has abandoned that in its efforts just to win, to have power for the purpose of having power, to use your power to retain power, not to advance a conservative agenda anymore. So there's a lot of disappointment and disillusion with the Republican Party generally. And I'm not one who has the view that, you know, I say I'm a constitutional biblical conservative who is loyal to policy and loyal to principle, not to party or team or personality. And if we will take any Republican just because they have an R after their name, so take Myshel Tafoya up in Minnesota, who's an openly pro choice Republican. That's a non negotiable issue for me, for example. but hey, if we'll take any Republican who's force fed to us, no matter their lack of principles and no matter how they win and how the primary is run in order to try to defeat or to destroy or to smear, the conservative, you know, with what happened with Thomas Massie in Kentucky, nobody even knows who Ed Gow Rhyen is or what he stands for or who he is or anything about his background. But you must vote for him now because he's not the Democrat, no matter what they did to Thomas Massey and no matter how that election was conducted or why he was, he was chosen just because of a loyalty or allegiance to a personality, to a person who's filling Congress with people who are part of the problem. So I think each individual person has to decide when that line has been crossed and when there's a Republican nominee who's not worthy of their support because of their policies or their positions or their lack of conservative principles or what the party did to the conservatives in order to choose that nominee. I think that everybody has to decide for themselves when they, that line is crossed and when it's went too far and when their vote is not just cannot be taken for granted just because somebody has an R after their name. Because we will continue to get what we've gotten if we continue to Obey and comply with the establishment party that takes conservatives for granted and frankly has contempt for conservatives, as has been demonstrated over the past two years.
Jenna Ellis You know, and I really appreciate that advice because it's not just this wholesale. you have to just vote Republican straight down ticket. It's, it's saying, you know, let's look at each individual candidate, make that moral assessment individually.
Informed Voting and Candidate Assessment Beyond Party Affiliation
And you know, people who are listening to this are coming from, you know, all. All different states across the country. There are different elections or different things on your ballot. Everyone should know what is on their individual ballot. You should know the candidates. hopefully everyone does already, before today. But, you know, you still have time and there are still some great voter guides, just like I. Voter guide from afa, action that can, give you a list of, you know, where the candidates stand on issues. and I think it, it is oversimplifying it to just say, you know, well, vote for a party because they, they historically tend to be better, you know, overall than, Than the Democrats. I'm still personally of the persuasion that I have to use my vote the best way possible. And there's never going to be a perfect candidate. Obviously, we can strive to get better candidates than others. I'm still willing to take the heat and endorse or support in my personal capacity, the best candidate in the primary. whether that's against the Trump endorsement or even, you know, against Trump himself. I mean, like I said, I stand behind the fact that I supported Governor DeSantis in 2024, and I'm going to do the same with the upcoming presidential election. to look at the candidates, look at where they stand.
Using Votes Wisely to Advance Values and Uphold Foundational Principles
And it's not just about personality. It's not about showmanship. It's not about who, MAGA Inc. Or the establishment GOP wants. It's ultimately who's going to do the best job for this country and to push the values that, that not only our founders understood, the rights that come from God our Creator, but, but also the morality that we need in our government in, 2026 today. And if we would all take that seriously, as you have rightly encouraged. Ah, Bob, good. I think that, this would be more than just a, A fight or, you know, kind of a personal. Well, I'm gonna, you know, stand out as a grudge or, you know, some of those other motivations, but actually look at the. Seriously as, as a, as a duty and responsibility to use our vote in the best way possible because this really is a privilege that we get to select and prefer our leaders and instead of just focusing on kind of, you know, the political theater of it all, really, this should be something where Christians engage in the, in the government and in the selection of who runs our government because we understand how critical it is for our well being and the future flourishing of our nation.
Election Projections and the Continued Importance of Voter Turnout
Bob Good Well said. and it's a privilege, it's an important responsibility. our vote, is very precious and it needs to be wielded and applied and utilized. Ah, with great discretion and discernment. And each of us has to decide how to vote each time, to advance what we think is best for our country.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, absolutely, 100%. Well, we've got to take a break here, but former Congressman Bob Good, I so appreciate your insights and your perspectives, but one last question for you before I take the break. So right now what's you know, we're a little under two weeks out from the midterms. What's your projection on where we stand on, on the federal level in terms of Republicans either gaining or keeping rather or losing control of the two chambers?
Bob Good I think Dems are going to pick up a minimum of one seat, North Carolina seat in the Senate likely to pick up maybe two or three seats. Worst case scenario they pick up six or seven seats. That would be the worst case scenario. hopefully that won't be realize and I think there's a good chance Republicans can Keep control certainly. J.D. vent breaking the tide in the House, it looks a little more precarious. There's so many more Republican seats that are, that are the ones that are in that toss up status if you will. I think the Dems are probably a minimum picking up five seats and barely taking control of the House. I think worst case scenario they'll pick up 25 seats if there was a really a blue wave in the worst kind of way. but I think you're probably more likely to be 10 to 15 seats picked up by Dems.
Jenna Ellis All right, well we'll see how it goes but again it all depends on turnout. So thanks so much again, Bob Goode. You can follow him on X. I'd encourage you to do that. Also listen to his podcast, which is phenomenal. And we will be right back with more.
The Critical Role of Preborn Network Clinics in Supporting Mothers and Saving Babies
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Understanding Government as a God-Ordained Institution from a Biblical Worldview
Welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis Well, we've been talking about voting or values, so I just want to conclude this program by giving an overview for those who maybe are new to the show or you know, you've consistently followed this but but you know, it's always good to hear this again of the biblical worldview of government because government is God's institution. It's not man's invention. So when we talk about institutions and you know, the collapse of like what's going on in France and and the disappointment of a lot of the institutions, we have to remember that man's agency of those institutions and perhaps undermining that or using that power and exercising it in an illegitimate manner does not mean that the institution itself is unnecessary or that is it is by definition evil. So for example, we can see lots of churches, right, who don't operate according to the principles and the requirements of scripture. they some even unfortunately preach heresy. Some are off in various ways. But that doesn't mean when you give an isolated example of a church that is offer is not actually a Bible teaching Christian church, but calls itself one, that somehow the institution of the church no longer is biblical or God given. And the same thing is true with the role of civil government.
Scriptural Basis for Civil Government and America's Founding Principles
Romans 13 tells us this. Other places in scripture as well, government is instituted by God. Scripture recognizes government as a legitimate institution with specific limited delegated authority from God himself. So government has a responsibility to restrain evil, punish wrongdoing and protect and promote what is good, allow for human flourishing, including the institution of the family which God also ordained. we also see in 1st Peter, in 1 Peter 2, that governing authorities have a responsibility to punish wrongdoing and commend those who do.
Jenna Ellis Right.
Jenna Ellis this means that Christians should evaluate government not simply by the promises or the broken promises or what government can provide or doesn't, but ultimately whether it is fulfilling its proper responsibilities according to Scripture. Now, right now in the United States, we could probably, look at every facet of government and say, well, there's a lot that it's doing or not doing, that is against the command of Scripture. Well, this is why it's so important to engage in voting, to select and prefer the leaders wherever possible and to the greatest extent that will provide solid leadership that is built on a Christian foundation. So we ask, you know, is, is America a Christian nation? Well, that doesn't mean, that question does not mean that every person, individual will be a Christian, obviously, or that the church will run the government like a theocracy. No, what it means is that America was in fact founded on a recognition of government being God's institution, ordained by him and delegated specific authority that would protect and preserve the rights that come from God our Creator. That's a very different view of government than almost any other government in world history, that has been founded. And our, and our founders at the, in contemplating the Declaration of Independence, in contemplating at the Constitutional Convention our Constitution in its original form after the Articles of Confederation, they ultimately asked that question, what does the best government type look like to achieve the legitimacy and the ends that Scripture requires? And that's the same thing that we need to ask and answer today.
Engaging in Government and Voting as a Moral Obligation and Privilege
What does a legitimate government look like? How can we, from a, a, longer perspective than each individual, every two year cycle of elections, we can't just say, okay, well, the immediacy of this election. Let's just, you know, vote how we can. And then we forget about it for another two years. We need to vote how we, the best way possible, participate in our government. Now, how we can to the best possible end that glorifies God the most. And then in the interim, we need to be seeking overall to reshape our government, call it back to its legitimate form and how the founders intended it, but also to continue to look upward and say what type of government and form of government, would best preserve and protect the rights that come from God our Creator. And as we move forward, we continue to shape our government in a way that ultimately will acknowledge that goal and fulfill that purpose and so we need to recognize government is not inherently evil. Can government be evil? Absolutely. but the institution itself is God ordained. And because of that, we have a moral obligation and responsibility to participate. Here in the United States, we have the distinct privilege of engaging in government by exercising our duty and responsibility to vote. So I say personally, get out and vote. Participate in the best way you can, but then don't shelve government for another two years.
Continued Engagement in Policy and Supporting Life-Saving Organizations
Participate in the policy. Participate on your local level, your state level, also on the national level. As always, you can reach me and my team, jennaafr.
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Sponsor Thanks and Introduction to Pro-Life Advocacy and Biblical Worldview Principles
Jenna Ellis We would like to take a moment to thank our sponsor, PreBorn. When a mother meets her baby on ultrasound and hears their heartbeat, it's a divine connection. And the majority of the time she will choose life. But she can't do it without our help. Preborn needs us, the pro life community, to come alongside her. One ultrasound is just $28 and to donate, dial pound250 and say the keyword baby or visit preborn.com afr Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Rad.
Jenna Ellis I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you.
Examining Poll Accuracy and Conservative Non-Participation in Surveys
And God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time. This is Jenna Ellis in the morning.
Jenna Ellis Good morning. Well, we are less than two weeks away from the midterms and early voting has already started in a number of states. And so seeing what those exit polls are showing, may give some insight into how accurate the polls actually are. And that's always, you know, kind of the the Magic 8 Ball or the you know, kind of projections that pollsters have. And everybody kind of wants to read the tea leaves and say, okay, can we project actually what's going to happen, so that we kind of get advanced knowledge of how the elections are going to go. But we've Learned especially since 2016, that sometimes the polls aren't necessarily accurate. And it's fascinating to me because I've started to get, even as of, you know, several weeks ago, starting to get some of these calls and some of these, you know, hey, participation, whatever, I never answer them. And I don't know about you, but I just think, you know, I don't want to talk to these people. Maybe I should because then they could hear, you know, from a conservative. But I think that that's the majority of Republicans, more so than the Democrats, tend to not respond to some of these survey questions. And so it's interesting to see what the polls versus the exit polls are showing. And Frank Luntz, you remember, him as one of the, the pollsters that said and admitted that he got 2016 wrong because he trusted the, the exit polling actually. And he asserted on CNN this week that he skeptical the current polling is accurate.
Skepticism Towards Polls and Underestimation of Trump Voters' Engagement
And I just found this conversation a little bit fascinating, especially that he's willing to have this on CNN and kind of dumping cold water on CNN's viewers dreams of, you know, this massive blue wave. obviously we'll see. But listen to what he had to say.
Bob Good What do you think the polls may be missing? Do you think they're, they're under sampling the kind of voter that Trump usually brings out sort of non engaged voters that, that may not respond to a phone call from a pollster.
Speaker D We know that they don't respond respond to phone calls. We know that in the exit polling back in 2016. I say this publicly because I want people to hear this. Now I teach at West Point. I cannot lie. Cheaters steal the cadets. Can't. I can't. I got 2016 Wong. I believed in the exit polls, Trump voters walked away, refused to participate because they thought that it was against them. It's out that the polls were all biased and that's what Republicans are being told right now. Don't believe the polls. They're not accurate. Well, they may be. We're about to find out.
Assessing Turnout Metrics and the Challenges of Accurate Political Polling
But I'm still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They're less likely to believe the polls are happening. But I'm most interested in turnout in the end. And there are ways to measure it. And I'm not convinced that they're doing it, that they're polling how the electorate overall feels and not polling the people actually going to participate. But in the end, how do you get around that though?
Speaker D that's why you have to do focus groups. That's why you have to do one on one interviews. I can tell by looking at you if you're going to participate or not. And these are people who are counted in the polls, but I know they're not going to vote. Well, they sit like this. Their hands are folded and they don't really care. And they're looking down and looking around because they're not engaged, they're not involved. And turnout determines everything. And I ask the viewers, pay attention to how they've asked the questions about turnout. It's not whether you say you're going to vote or not because people lie. How interested are you in the election, number one. Number two is how often do you collect election news, political news, and number three, how often do you talk politics to your friends and neighbors? Those are three essential questions in determining turnout. I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don't ask it.
Jenna Ellis Interesting. Well, let's welcome in former congressman Bob Good, from the great state of Virginia. And Bob what do you make of that assessment?
Difficulties in Modern Polling and Historical Examples of Inaccurate Projections
Obviously, turnout is all that does matter who actually votes. The polls are just pretty predictions and, you know, trying to get an estimate of how things are going to go before everything is actually counted, or you know, a month from now when California finally gets around to counting it. So, what do you make of what Frank Lunt, suggested about the importance of asking different types of questions?
Bob Good Well, polling is obviously very difficult to do because to your point, and you're leading about how you don't answer or you don't participate, who answers the phone anymore from a phone number that they don't know? How do they get anybody to answer the phone and participate? Nobody has landlines anymore. So you're calling people cell phones. And most of us are conditioned not to answer the phone, to take a call from somebody that we don't know or a number that we don't recognize. And then to your point, Republicans are particularly conservative. Republicans tend to be distrustful of the government, of the system, to be more skeptical, to be more cynical, if you will. where Democrats, seem left leaning, voters seem to be more trusting of the system, if you will. So you know, I tend to get text messages asking me to participate in polls and I don't want to click on links and I don't want to participate. I'm distrustful of that as well. So I don't participate in poll outreach when it comes to me, typically by text message. And I want to, is it legitimate? Is it real? Do I really want to click on this link? I don't know who's sending this to me, am I being targeted or what have you. But that said, it's really difficult to conduct accurate polling because you're trying to guess, okay, how many Republican leaning voters should I reach out to, how many Democrat leaning voters, how many independents, how many swing voters, centrists, moderates in the middle that go back and forth, how much do I sample and what's going to be the accurate reflection of who actually participates on election day. So it's really challenging to do. We know that some pollsters have an agenda, they have a bias. Of course they're human. They're just like you and I and have their opinions and their, and their biases or their prejudices, if you will, in terms of parties and candidates and so forth. but there have been classic examples. I'm a little older than you, Jenna, and I can remember 2004 in particular.
Critique of 2004 Exit Polls and Allegations of Election Engineering
2004 in particular when all the exit polling seemed to indicate throughout the day, The Election Day 2004, between Jon Kerry and Bush, w. Bush's first reelection campaign, all the exit polling indicated that Kerry supposedly was going to win. And there was so much sadness and gloom and doom. You could hear it in the voices of all the analysts and the pundits and so forth on the Republican, the conservative side. And then finally in the day when the results started to come in, Bush won, somewhat comfortably. And I can remember Dick Morris saying on one of the leading channels, this was fraud. This was election engineering. There's no way the exit polls could be this wrong by accident. They were trying to orchestrate an outcome in Jon Kerry's favor by. I can remember him saying that on national television the evening of Bush's reelection in 2004.
Jenna Ellis Wow. And, and isn't it amazing that you know, nobody was, indicting him or calling for lawfare at the time and all that? You know, I mean, they're allowed to do that. but then, you know, when, whenever Republicans are questioning the system, then you know, suddenly, you know, we're. We're insurrectionists and all of this. But, you know, but it begs the question then, because obviously polls can be, can be wildly off and they're only as good as, ultimately their methodology or possible indicators of predictions.
Elections Integrity Concerns and the Skewed Perception of Polls as Bandwagon Fallacies
But they're not a gold standard to say, okay, this is a surefire metric to determine the outcome. It all does depend on who actually shows up and obviously, whether or not the elections themselves are safe and secure. And we don't have people voting in elections who shouldn't. But, but also, you know, to, to this point, I mean, I. A Colorado area code phone number, my cell phone that I've had, you know, years and decades, right? And even though I've moved to Florida and so I still get a lot of the survey questions from, Colorado pollsters. And so if I wanted to give my opinion on that, I could, but that would then be inserting my opinion and honestly skewing a poll for an election that I'm no longer eligible to vote in because I'm in Florida and I'm not a Colorado registered voter anymore. even though at actually at my old address, mail in ballots still show up, which is a whole other problem. But, you know, but the point is we, when we're talking about the midterms and when we're talking about, the. Any election, people, even President Trump, I mean, everybody knows he watches the polls like a hawk and it almost Seems like polls are just these bandwagon fallacies that try to skew public perception in favor of what they want instead of necessarily being any sort of accurate predictor.
Polls Influencing Perception Versus Reflecting Reality in Elections
And do you find, you know, especially with your time in D.C. do you find that a lot of the polls are trying intentionally, perhaps to sway public perception more than actually get it, trying to get a grasp on what's actually going on?
Bob Good I, have no question that that does occur, that does happen and we've seen it. It's rarely where you see, gosh, the Republican strength was overestimated, it was too optimistic of polling in Republicans favor. That's not the way you see it. More often than not, it's Republicans who are underestimated or under accounted. The sample didn't include enough Republican leaning voters and so forth. So I think the polls do mean something, but they certainly don't mean everything. Legitimate, honest polling that's trying to be accurate and there are certainly those that are trying to do so without an agenda per se. It does mean something. It can, like I'll just give an example of where we are today. So in North Carolina, where the polls have consistently shown in the Senate race there that unfortunately the former Governor Cooper is, you know, 5 to 10 points ahead, or Ossoff in Georgia, 5 to 10 points ahead consistently, I think those probably mean something, unfortunately for conservatives like you and I. However, when you've got a poll for, let's say Michigan or for the Senate race there or the, or the main Senate race with Susan Collins, you know, those that are within 2 or 3 points, the polls are just tell you that it's close basically. So it could be a three or four point win for either side. They just can't be that precise. They can't get it down because they really don't know who's going to vote.
Analyzing Poll Inaccuracies and the Potential for a False Sense of Security
They don't know how the late breaking voters are going to swing or which way they're going to go, the direction they're going to go. And so they give you some indication they're valuable to some extent, but they're certainly far from accurate, if you will, or perfectly accurate as we've seen time and again.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, as we're heading into the midterms then, and we've seen, you know, where these polls were wildly inaccurate in 2016 and then even in 2024 where everybody said it was going to be so close between, you know, Trump and Kamala Harris and then, you know, he, he won an absolute landslide. I think some of those, those results have given Republicans maybe a false sense of security, like, oh, the polls are bad, but they're always bad and we're going winning anyway. I mean, I've heard from some commentators that, well, well, a lot of the. Even conservative polling, or polls that we would tend to cite, even real clear politics, and some of those say that, the Democrats are up by at least several points and likely will take the House back. Well, you know, that's just the poll and we can't, you know, that's always skewed. And so they almost have this false sense of security instead of pushing for the turnout. And so where do you advise that people need to be wise, when they're advocating for turnout and to not necessarily just ignore the polls, but to kind of take that with perhaps a giant grain of salt on either side.
The Critical Role of Turnout and Enthusiasm for Republican Base Motivation
Bob Good You said the key word there two or three times. Turnout, turnout, turnout, enthusiasm of the base getting the. And that's where I think, you know, President Trump, we'll see which way the impact, you know, 15, couple of weeks from now, we'll find out what the impact was of him making the rally or, to me, election about himself, him doing all the rallies and so forth, him traveling like he is and reminding voters of himself and asking folks to vote based on, as if he was on the ballot. but turnout, turnout, turnout is the key and, getting your base to turn out. And where I'm concerned, as a conservative, as a Republican, obviously voter, if you're a conservative, is, is the enthusiasm or the motivation of the base. The Democrats are motivated because they're out of power, they're motivated because they don'. So I think they're going to turn out in full force. And I think a lot of these early voting indications are showing that in terms of early voting is up in a lot of places, from other elections. And I'm not sure what's going to drive and motivate the Republican base to turn out. Ah, other than the fact that, hey, they're not as bad as the Democrats, the Democrats are worse.
Republican Enthusiasm Deficit Compared to Democratic Motivation in Elections
The Democrats. Every place where the Republicans have fallen short in the past two years, Democrats would have been worse. And everything good that Trump and the Republicans have done in Washington over the past two years, Democrats wouldn't have done any of that. But, is that sufficient to motivate Republicans to turn out? So you're exactly right. Turnout is the key. Ah. And we can't take anything for granted because I do think, that Democrats have an Enthusiasm advantage just because of the party out of power.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, yeah. Which, which is so frustrating, honestly. I mean, and I think personally that, you know, if. If Trump and especially, Congress had fulfilled a lot of the promises and what I think was a clear mandate in 2024, that we would have a lot more enthusiasm for the Republican Party from the base. I mean, going into right before COVID you know, when everything dramatically changed, of course, I mean, there were such enthusiasm for President Trump, and it was almost like there's no way he could lose because the economy was going strong. Everybody was so happy about this, you know, giant turnaround, and there was a revitalization among conservatives that were not just going to be, pushed out or, you know, kind of, pushed back and boarded up into our churches where we had to whisper our politics, you know, between, between, you know, closed doors and all this. and so there was that enthusiasm, and that enthusiasm was reignited in 24.
Dampening of Republican Enthusiasm and Messaging Challenges for Turnout
But there's been, honestly a dampening. And I know that some listeners, and I've heard from, you know, a lot of you, who said, well, I'm still enthusiastic, and, and that's great, and I'm glad that you are, and I think we need to be enthusiastic for the principles overall. But we can't just pretend that there isn't a lack of enthusiasm, generally speaking, particularly among young voters. And that's what the surveys are suggesting as well. And, and I had on a, pollster from Honest Polls, Mark Mitchell earlier in the week, you know, who was. Was, talking about how, the view of a lot of these voters when you're talking about turnout is not just about the messaging of, the gop, but that, you know, we're here in the last two weeks before midterms, less than two weeks. and the gop, in his opinion, really can't do anything necessarily in this last timeframe to affect turnout. And his opinion was they should have listened, you know, a year ago on, the Iran war, and, you know, they should have listened and done more things on domestic policy than carrying that as the main issue into the midterms. Do you think that this is kind of a foregone conclusion at this point, or is there something that in this last two weeks, if the White House gets its messaging together, could do? I mean, I think it was just a ridiculous distraction to appoint a new press secretary regardless.
Unforced Errors and Past Policy Fumbles Impacting Conservative Enthusiasm
I mean, it didn't even have to be as big of a disaster as, Katy, Zakaria. But it really Just was ultimately a distraction that Republicans didn't need.
Bob Good Yeah, I think that was, an unforced error of epic proportions. I don't understand what happened with her appointment. I don't understand what happened with seemingly her being thrown under the bus and being dismissed so quickly. You either drop the ball on selecting her and vetting her and preparing her, or she just was totally incapable. And so you miss, you know, where was your ability to assess that before you made this decision? And why did you bail so quickly? But so, yeah, I don't think there's a lot that Republicans can do in two weeks to effectuate the outcome of the election. And I think there's this risk of being desperate with these, you know, Hail Marys that are being thrown, particularly by the president with some of the things that he's doing. There are things, you know, the sort of the October surprise, if you will, in the sense that there's things beyond our control that could happen. Unexpected, uncontrollable things that can happen in the country that can change the trajectory of an election. But in terms of Republicans be able to orchestrate, I think that'll be difficult. I go back to something that you and I talked about going back two years ago. Republicans fumbled the ball with going big and bold and courageous in conservative policy pursuit of when they had full control of government. They didn't use, reconciliation to cut spending, to shrink government, to put the pressure on the moderates within the party. All the pressure was on the conservatives to conform and surrender and obey and submit. You targeted conservatives in the primaries. You targeted people like Ralph Norman and Chip Roy. You targeted people like Thomas Massie in the primaries.
Disillusionment Among Conservatives and Primary Targeting Concerns
You refilled the swamp with the worst kinds of Republicans, just like Darlene Graham or whomever it might be. And so I think conservatives are disillusioned. They're disappointed, in policy or lack thereof. they're disappointed in the way that conservatives have been targeted in primaries and so forth and threatened and intimidated and bullied into conformity and compliance in Congress. And so I think they're going to have a turnout problem.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. Well, let's take a break here. We're going to continue, to talk about the midterms and, potentially the strategy for conservatives moving forward if the midterms ultimately do not see, Republicans maintaining control of both chambers and, the White House. Obviously, Trump has two more years, but I think this is going to set up a really big, ah, fight starting November 4th. But I'm talking with former Congressman Bob Good, who also was unreasonably and ridiculously targeted. Targeted by President Trump. And I wish that you were still in Congress because you could, be making a difference there. But we're grateful that you're talking about these things and we will be right back.
Listener Support and Midterm Election Analysis: Turnout and Conservative Enthusiasm
Jenna Ellis Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. We please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.netgive. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis Well, I'm here with my special guest this morning, former Congressman Bob Good, from the great state of Virginia. We're talking about the midterms, the fact that turnout is the number one issue, obviously for an election. What may be suppressing conservative turnout and, what may be driving enthusiasm for Democrats. Ah, which is just baffling when you think about what socialism actually does. But, you know, when you actually get down to what people are concerned about, even here in my home state, Ababa, Florida, you know how Byron Donald's handle handled the primary by refusing to debate running just on Trump's endorsement, basically saying, you know, didn't matter, I'm coordinated, I'm going to be the next future governor. He really turned off a lot of conservatives who are now expressing that even in early voting, they're writing in someone else or they're even, turning to voting for the Democrat in some cases that I've seen online, just because they want to teach the Republicans a lesson and say, okay, better in their view, and I fully disagree with this, but I understand the perspective.
Conservative Frustration with GOP Leadership and Perceived Betrayal of Principles
They say better to have, you know, four years of a Democrat and kind of regather the GOP so that maybe we can oust some of these people who really aren't for what we're for as conservative policy anymore, then to just go along and enable the status quo and basically reward a Trump coronation. so, you know, that's, and that's just one instance here in Florida. You know, we, you talked before the break about, Trump, you know, actually making it a mission to oust, some of the people on his own team, you included, who are phenomenal conservatives instead of targeting the actual enemies. And I think that a lot of this as well is just so frustrating to people who have seen the lawfare against Trump supporters. They've seen the attacks from the four years we had under Biden against, so many conservatives, just for being pro life, for being pro conservative, for being pro Trump. And then you have. And I want to play this clip, from Senator, ah, Slotkin, who is a Democrat, who is literally saying the quiet part out loud and saying, and this is what they're planning, that if the Democrats attain power again, then they're going to do what they did during the four years of Biden by targeting Trump supporters, and conservatives with lawfare, but they're going to do it even more harshly so that nobody will want to work for Republicans again. And this is just insane. But listen to this. This is cut three.
Concerns Over Weaponization of Power and Lawfare Against Political Opponents
Jenna Ellis So that's what I'm saying. I want to look at these signature cases and not just focus on the president, but on the people who enabled him. I want young people coming out of school to say, should I go work for the Trump administration? Like that sounds fun. I might get an opportunity. Opportunity. I want them to be like, that might be buying myself a ton of problems that I don't want. And so let me avoid participating in that. I want that deterrence message.
Jenna Ellis I mean, that's insane.
Bob Good yes, it is. And to your point, they're saying the quiet part out loud. They're acknowledging, they're not even pretending anymore that how they want to weaponize power, for political reasons, to target political opponents, to go after those who disagree with them, to silence, opposition. They want to do what they did already during the Biden administration, where Biden's Department of Injustice under Merrick Garland, as we know, targeted pro life, peaceful pro life protesters in Pennsylvania and put people in jail. They targeted Catholics practicing their faith in Richmond, Virginia. And they said, no, it was just one rogue field office. And now investigations subsequently in the Trump administration have revealed that it was, it was pervasive throughout the entire FBI, during Biden's time. as we know, they targeted parents as showing up school board meetings because they were concerned about what was being taught to their kids and the indoctrination and the policies in their school systems. and they arrested parents for doing that. That is the mentality of the left. That's the mentality of the Democrat Party. and Slotkin is just saying it, she's acknowledging it. and that is a consequence of elections. Because while, you know, we get told every two years, every four years, hey, this is the most important election of our lifetime. And that is used by both sides to drive out base turnout by scaring Folks, this is the most.
Tribalism in Politics and the Escalating Use of Power Against Opponents
So in other words, you have to be tribal and you have to vote for your party no matter what, no matter how bad or how disappointing it might be with them, because this is the most important election ever, and the other party is even worse. And that's certainly true M. When you're talking about how terrible the Democrat Party is. But the administration, the executive branch, in the continued on both sides, unfortunately, of ignoring the Constitution, ignoring the limits of executive power, ruling by emergency, ruling by executive, decree, if you will, and a willingness to target and go after political opponents. The Democrats took it to another level under the Biden administration. They're saying right now, if they get power again, they'll do it to a whole other level once again. and, Slotkin is confirming that, of course, she's an ambitious person who has political ambitions of her own and talking about how she would use power, how she would wield power to go after her political opponents if she were entrusted with more power by the people of Michigan or the people of, this country if she runs for president.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. And, you know, so when we're talking about turnout, I mean, these issues, to me, as a conservative and also, you know, somebody who was targeted by lawfare from a lot of different directions and had to spend a lot of time, effort, money, you know, financial resources, all of this defending that these issues, to me are way bigger than any, problems that, or disagreements that we may have within conservatives or even disappointments of Trump. Like, are there things that I can rightly criticize? Absolutely.
Comparing Political Choices and the Consequences of Disengagement
But by comparison, I mean, the difference between what we have in Donald Trump versus what we would have had in Kamala Harris, like, there's no question, and I'm really glad that everyone turned out how they did in 2024. And, and so, again, I don't understand this whole mentality that, you know, we're going to teach Republicans a lesson by voting in the people that literally want to imprison us, want to destroy our livelihoods, want to target us, want to come after us and our families. I, mean, that's just beyond insane to me that when you have not only the track record of the Biden administration, but now you have people like Senator Slotkin and others, you know, who are, who are just saying the quiet part out loud, and advocacy groups that have, that have literally formed just in order to take the bar licenses away from anyone who dares represent Trump or Republicans, and they've specifically formed to target, you know, a lot of these, these lawsuits why on earth would anyone suggest that some other in house disagreement is more important and is worth sitting out the election or even way worse voting for these people when you have such a contrast? And I don't understand, Bob Good. How Republicans are not messaging this better.
Critique of Republican Policies as Socialist Populist and Impact on Base Enthusiasm
Bob Good Well, I can understand where it's coming from. In other words, I'm not arguing with your ultimate conclusion on what you think voters ought to do, but I can understand where it's coming from. If you believe that one party is just driving the bus off the cliff at a slower pace, than the other party, that the Democrats are driving the bus off the cliff at 100 miles an hour, Republicans are slowing it down to 90 miles an hour, when they're in control, but they're not turning the bus around. And I'll give you an example of that. Jenna, and you saw this a couple of weeks ago, JD Vanches asked to find socialism. Hey, can you define socialism? What is socialism? And he says, this is pretty close to a quote. He says, well, it's really hard to do. I think it's, you know, replacing American workers with foreign workers. And I think it's girls and women's sports. Well, I, first of all, I disagree with both of those policies. you know, that we ought not to replace American workers with foreign workers. We ought not to be allowing, boys or men to play girls or women's sports, of course, but that's not socialism. And I think that the reason why he was hesitant to define it is because he would have impugned the policies of the Trump White House. Trump advanced policies where we're taking, you know, government ownership strikes and private companies, where we're paying moms to stay home and take care of their kids, where we're promising $5,000 checks to everybody if we win the election, when we're spending more than Democrats were spending when they were in power, when we're targeting conservatives. you know, and I could go on and on, but, I think Republicans are pursuing socialist populist, like policies with a little as socialist, that that's what's hurting the enthusiasm for the base.
Need for Republican Party Change and Addressing Conservative Disappointment
And so, you know, I think that you need a dramatic change in the Republican Party, not more of the same and not to affirm, what's been going on and what's been happening, as if it's okay when you take conservatives votes for granted every four years we need you in the general, or every two years in the general, we don't want you in primary. But you got to Come home in general, because this is the most important election ever and the Democrats are worse than Republicans. That's not a real motivating, enthusiastic message to drive turnout on the Republican side.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, and that's, that is definitely fair. And I, and I do understand that sentiment. I mean, I understand why the people in Florida, for example, you know, going back to my, my hometown, you know, hypothetical or home state? Hypothetical. That. Well, it's not even hypothetical, it's reality. But your example, I should say that I understand why people who were dismissed completely in the primary as if they don't matter, now they're saying, well, you do matter, and now you have an obligation and a duty and responsibility. How dare you not vote for the person that brushed you off in the primary? And that's how it, it feels. And that's how it feels to a lot of people, overall, not just with the primaries, but with all of these policies that the things that we did turn out for in 2024 aren't being prioritized. And we're going, well, you know, what was, what was our vote used for then? Okay, yes, to stop Kamala Harris from getting in office, but what are we actually doing to advance the policies that we voted for?
Evaluating Election Outcomes and the Future of the Republican Party
And, and there are some, you know, that still say, oh yeah, I voted for this and I'm really happy on, you know, XYZ thing of Trump. And I think that there are some wins we can certainly point to, but overall, this hasn't been the enthusiastic second term that a lot of us were hoping for. I mean, you know, you and I both, and we got dinged, privately and professionally, you more than me for this one, for supporting Ron DeSantis in the, the primary in 2024. And I can't help but say that had he been nominated and elected, we would be in a very, very different situation in this country right now. Primarily because just, you know, take all of the hypothetical wins that I think would have been reality under his presidency, but he would have had another four years. we're rapidly heading into this lame duck territory with Trump that as soon as the midterms are over, and we're already seeing shades of this, as soon as the midterms are over, there is going to be an internal power struggle and an all out war between the old establishment GOP and the people who are just over the Trump era completely versus the MAGA Inc. Trump loyalists who want him and his endorsements to still reign supreme over the gop. And that is going to be an Absolutely nasty fight. And I'm not sure that that's going to be one that whoever the Republican nominee is, whether that's Vance or someone else in 2028, is ultimately going to prevail on the ticket. or the combination of factors will make it more likely that a Democrat wins in 28. What do you think?
Critique of Trump's Nomination Over DeSantis and Republican Party Strategy
Bob Good Well, I think you made some excellent points that I'd like to follow up and respond to. Number one, you're right. What. What a terrible mistake was made, in 2024 with the nomination of Trump over DeSantis. Instead of having two years of courageous conservative leadership, with looking at six years of an incumbent president continuing to lead his party, we've got what we have today. And I think the best chance Republicans have to lose in 28 is if whomever is nominated is seen as an extension or a perpetuation of the Trump White House. So I think you need a fresh face, like a DeSantis as our nominee in 2028 in order to win the White House and not turn it over to Democrats, as historically happens when the president can't or won't run again in terms of what we've done with candidates and parties. The best example I can give you, by the way, is South Carolina. You had a courageous conservative, Ralph Norman, who was positioned to win that republic, that runoff, to become the Senate nominee. And instead, you had the Trump machine smear him in the final days and target seniors with ads saying that Ralph Norman was going to take away Social Security to give us Darlene Graham, who. What we know about her, she supports her last name is Graham. We know that. We know she didn't seem to like Trump before. We know that she hasn't voted in Republican primaries and she supported pro choice candidates. so what do we know about her?
Turnout Challenges and the Debate Over Voting Based on Party Versus Principles
We don't know anything about her. But they are told, no matter what they did to Ralph Norman, you must vote for her because she's not a Democrat, and the Democrats will be worse. Now, I suspect she'll win in red state South Carolina, hopefully won't give up a Senate seat there. but that's what's happened over the past two years. And that's why I think that Republicans have a turnout issue here in this election, here in two weeks.
Jenna Ellis Yeah. So what's your personal perspective and advice for listeners who can see, you know, all sides of this, and, you know, we do need turnout, but there are frustrations there. You know, it is understandable where everybody's position is. I mean, is your perspective that People should vote anyway for the Republican, the conservative ticket, because it's, it's going to prevent the alternative or you know, is there a different moral contemplation in your view?
Bob Good Well, I'll take that last part that you touched on, the moral component of it.
Abandonment of Moral Issues by Republican Party and Individual Voter Responsibility
The Republican Party at large in my home state, in Virginia and certainly nationally as well, has abandoned the moral issues. The things that drove many of us, our conservative principles, our biblical worldview, was issues of life and morality and marriage and so forth. And the party has abandoned that in its efforts just to win, to have power for the purpose of having power, to use your power to retain power, not to advance a conservative agenda anymore. So there's a lot of disappointment and disillusion with the Republican Party generally. And I'm not one who has the view that, you know, I say I'm a constitutional biblical conservative who is loyal to policy and loyal to principle, not to party or team or personality. And if we will take any Republican just because they have an R after their name, so take Myshel Tafoya up in Minnesota, who's an openly pro choice Republican. That's a non negotiable issue for me, for example. but hey, if we'll take any Republican who's force fed to us, no matter their lack of principles and no matter how they win and how the primary is run in order to try to defeat or to destroy or to smear, the conservative, you know, with what happened with Thomas Massie in Kentucky, nobody even knows who Ed Gow Rhyen is or what he stands for or who he is or anything about his background. But you must vote for him now because he's not the Democrat, no matter what they did to Thomas Massey and no matter how that election was conducted or why he was, he was chosen just because of a loyalty or allegiance to a personality, to a person who's filling Congress with people who are part of the problem. So I think each individual person has to decide when that line has been crossed and when there's a Republican nominee who's not worthy of their support because of their policies or their positions or their lack of conservative principles or what the party did to the conservatives in order to choose that nominee. I think that everybody has to decide for themselves when they, that line is crossed and when it's went too far and when their vote is not just cannot be taken for granted just because somebody has an R after their name. Because we will continue to get what we've gotten if we continue to Obey and comply with the establishment party that takes conservatives for granted and frankly has contempt for conservatives, as has been demonstrated over the past two years.
Jenna Ellis You know, and I really appreciate that advice because it's not just this wholesale. you have to just vote Republican straight down ticket. It's, it's saying, you know, let's look at each individual candidate, make that moral assessment individually.
Informed Voting and Candidate Assessment Beyond Party Affiliation
And you know, people who are listening to this are coming from, you know, all. All different states across the country. There are different elections or different things on your ballot. Everyone should know what is on their individual ballot. You should know the candidates. hopefully everyone does already, before today. But, you know, you still have time and there are still some great voter guides, just like I. Voter guide from afa, action that can, give you a list of, you know, where the candidates stand on issues. and I think it, it is oversimplifying it to just say, you know, well, vote for a party because they, they historically tend to be better, you know, overall than, Than the Democrats. I'm still personally of the persuasion that I have to use my vote the best way possible. And there's never going to be a perfect candidate. Obviously, we can strive to get better candidates than others. I'm still willing to take the heat and endorse or support in my personal capacity, the best candidate in the primary. whether that's against the Trump endorsement or even, you know, against Trump himself. I mean, like I said, I stand behind the fact that I supported Governor DeSantis in 2024, and I'm going to do the same with the upcoming presidential election. to look at the candidates, look at where they stand.
Using Votes Wisely to Advance Values and Uphold Foundational Principles
And it's not just about personality. It's not about showmanship. It's not about who, MAGA Inc. Or the establishment GOP wants. It's ultimately who's going to do the best job for this country and to push the values that, that not only our founders understood, the rights that come from God our Creator, but, but also the morality that we need in our government in, 2026 today. And if we would all take that seriously, as you have rightly encouraged. Ah, Bob, good. I think that, this would be more than just a, A fight or, you know, kind of a personal. Well, I'm gonna, you know, stand out as a grudge or, you know, some of those other motivations, but actually look at the. Seriously as, as a, as a duty and responsibility to use our vote in the best way possible because this really is a privilege that we get to select and prefer our leaders and instead of just focusing on kind of, you know, the political theater of it all, really, this should be something where Christians engage in the, in the government and in the selection of who runs our government because we understand how critical it is for our well being and the future flourishing of our nation.
Election Projections and the Continued Importance of Voter Turnout
Bob Good Well said. and it's a privilege, it's an important responsibility. our vote, is very precious and it needs to be wielded and applied and utilized. Ah, with great discretion and discernment. And each of us has to decide how to vote each time, to advance what we think is best for our country.
Jenna Ellis Yeah, absolutely, 100%. Well, we've got to take a break here, but former Congressman Bob Good, I so appreciate your insights and your perspectives, but one last question for you before I take the break. So right now what's you know, we're a little under two weeks out from the midterms. What's your projection on where we stand on, on the federal level in terms of Republicans either gaining or keeping rather or losing control of the two chambers?
Bob Good I think Dems are going to pick up a minimum of one seat, North Carolina seat in the Senate likely to pick up maybe two or three seats. Worst case scenario they pick up six or seven seats. That would be the worst case scenario. hopefully that won't be realize and I think there's a good chance Republicans can Keep control certainly. J.D. vent breaking the tide in the House, it looks a little more precarious. There's so many more Republican seats that are, that are the ones that are in that toss up status if you will. I think the Dems are probably a minimum picking up five seats and barely taking control of the House. I think worst case scenario they'll pick up 25 seats if there was a really a blue wave in the worst kind of way. but I think you're probably more likely to be 10 to 15 seats picked up by Dems.
Jenna Ellis All right, well we'll see how it goes but again it all depends on turnout. So thanks so much again, Bob Goode. You can follow him on X. I'd encourage you to do that. Also listen to his podcast, which is phenomenal. And we will be right back with more.
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Understanding Government as a God-Ordained Institution from a Biblical Worldview
Welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis Well, we've been talking about voting or values, so I just want to conclude this program by giving an overview for those who maybe are new to the show or you know, you've consistently followed this but but you know, it's always good to hear this again of the biblical worldview of government because government is God's institution. It's not man's invention. So when we talk about institutions and you know, the collapse of like what's going on in France and and the disappointment of a lot of the institutions, we have to remember that man's agency of those institutions and perhaps undermining that or using that power and exercising it in an illegitimate manner does not mean that the institution itself is unnecessary or that is it is by definition evil. So for example, we can see lots of churches, right, who don't operate according to the principles and the requirements of scripture. they some even unfortunately preach heresy. Some are off in various ways. But that doesn't mean when you give an isolated example of a church that is offer is not actually a Bible teaching Christian church, but calls itself one, that somehow the institution of the church no longer is biblical or God given. And the same thing is true with the role of civil government.
Scriptural Basis for Civil Government and America's Founding Principles
Romans 13 tells us this. Other places in scripture as well, government is instituted by God. Scripture recognizes government as a legitimate institution with specific limited delegated authority from God himself. So government has a responsibility to restrain evil, punish wrongdoing and protect and promote what is good, allow for human flourishing, including the institution of the family which God also ordained. we also see in 1st Peter, in 1 Peter 2, that governing authorities have a responsibility to punish wrongdoing and commend those who do.
Jenna Ellis Right.
Jenna Ellis this means that Christians should evaluate government not simply by the promises or the broken promises or what government can provide or doesn't, but ultimately whether it is fulfilling its proper responsibilities according to Scripture. Now, right now in the United States, we could probably, look at every facet of government and say, well, there's a lot that it's doing or not doing, that is against the command of Scripture. Well, this is why it's so important to engage in voting, to select and prefer the leaders wherever possible and to the greatest extent that will provide solid leadership that is built on a Christian foundation. So we ask, you know, is, is America a Christian nation? Well, that doesn't mean, that question does not mean that every person, individual will be a Christian, obviously, or that the church will run the government like a theocracy. No, what it means is that America was in fact founded on a recognition of government being God's institution, ordained by him and delegated specific authority that would protect and preserve the rights that come from God our Creator. That's a very different view of government than almost any other government in world history, that has been founded. And our, and our founders at the, in contemplating the Declaration of Independence, in contemplating at the Constitutional Convention our Constitution in its original form after the Articles of Confederation, they ultimately asked that question, what does the best government type look like to achieve the legitimacy and the ends that Scripture requires? And that's the same thing that we need to ask and answer today.
Engaging in Government and Voting as a Moral Obligation and Privilege
What does a legitimate government look like? How can we, from a, a, longer perspective than each individual, every two year cycle of elections, we can't just say, okay, well, the immediacy of this election. Let's just, you know, vote how we can. And then we forget about it for another two years. We need to vote how we, the best way possible, participate in our government. Now, how we can to the best possible end that glorifies God the most. And then in the interim, we need to be seeking overall to reshape our government, call it back to its legitimate form and how the founders intended it, but also to continue to look upward and say what type of government and form of government, would best preserve and protect the rights that come from God our Creator. And as we move forward, we continue to shape our government in a way that ultimately will acknowledge that goal and fulfill that purpose and so we need to recognize government is not inherently evil. Can government be evil? Absolutely. but the institution itself is God ordained. And because of that, we have a moral obligation and responsibility to participate. Here in the United States, we have the distinct privilege of engaging in government by exercising our duty and responsibility to vote. So I say personally, get out and vote. Participate in the best way you can, but then don't shelve government for another two years.
Continued Engagement in Policy and Supporting Life-Saving Organizations
Participate in the policy. Participate on your local level, your state level, also on the national level. As always, you can reach me and my team, jennaafr.
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Jenna discusses the critical state of polling ahead of the midterms with former Congressman Bob Good. They dive into the challenges of accurate polling, the importance of voter turnout, and the skepticism surrounding current election predictions. With insights on the motivations behind voter engagement and the moral responsibility of participating in elections, this episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking to understand the political landscape as the midterms approach.
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