Sponsor Message and Biblical Worldview Foundation for Governance
Jenna Ellis: We would like to take a moment to thank our sponsor, PreBorn. When a mother meets her baby on ultrasound and hears their heartbeat, it's a divine connection. And the majority of the time, she will choose life. But she can't do it without our help. Preborn needs us, the pro life community, to come alongside her. One ultrasound is just $28, and to donate, dial £250 and say the keyword baby or visit preborn.com afr Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Rad.
Jenna Ellis: I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time.
Midterm Election Concerns and Polling on the Iran War's Impact
This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Jenna Ellis: Good morning. It is Wednesday, September 30th, and as we are rapidly approaching the midterms, there's a lot of focus on the polling, a lot of concerns that the GOP is going to lose either the House or the Senate majority or both. And our good friend Steve Dace, posted an interesting poll, for what it's worth, and a lot of these are, you know, interesting to pull, the people who are paying attention to politics across social media. This was yesterday, and he posted, is whatever we've been trying to do in Iran slash Hormuz this year worth risking losing the midterms to the Democrats? Out of 2,213 votes, the final results said no at 78% and yes at 22. so I think this is a really interesting question, though, because, however you answer, this is basically suggesting that the GOP is going to lose. So, Steve, welcome back to the program. It's been a minute since we've talked to you, and, I think you're probably just as frustrated with the GOP as I am, but I thought this was an interesting question because, I think it shows that most people who answer no aren't fans of the war in Iran and are wondering, what in the world are we doing? And for the few people who are saying yes, it's a concession, essentially, that, probably the GOP will lose.
College Football Shoutout and Discussion on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
Steve Deace: Well, good morning. Back to you, Jenna, and let me just give a quick shout out, by the way, to the head man over there, Tim Wildmon, who's just got to be giddy with the start for his Mississippi State Bulldogs. And that Quarterback there. I know you got a big game coming up Saturday, so just wanted to say good morning to him.
Jenna Ellis: All about college football from our group chat this weekend. And I didn't have a lot to contribute. So that shout out means more to him coming from you.
Steve Deace: I'm sure it does, because probably the rest of this talk, is not going to be inspiring. So I want to start with that. the reality is, this question came about because this is the way the President is framing this. I mean, he framed it this way. To Laura Ingraham over the weekend, she pointed out, listen, if you don't do this war, we're sitting here at $2.25 gas. We're probably cruising in the midterms with the negative the Democrats have. He says, well, we don't know that, you know. And he says, suppose Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Now listen, Iran has wanted a nuclear weapon since it came. Since this regime came to power in 1979. There has, there has barely been a day that I've been alive that they have not wanted a nuclear weapon. There has not been a day that you've been alive that they did not want one. So we can't govern at all on supposed.
Governing by Reality Not Speculation: Comparing Iran Threats to Domestic Issues
That's a little bit like Debbie Burks and Anthony Fauci running into your office with an Imperial College survey, that turned out to be a complete and total farce. Academic fraud and saying, hey, if you don't shut the country down, supposedly you could kill 2 million people. We can't govern on supposedly when we have realities that are very determinative and existential. the reality is the current state of the Democratic Party. The current state. And you would think the guy that, they shot in the face and tried to imprison for 90 years and tried to bankrupt, you'd think that nobody would be more aware of this than him. but, the reality is that as much as I detest Iran, and as much as I am confident that every time a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard dies, an angel gets his wings, all right? Everybody within the sound of my voice is way more threatened by what the Democrats will do right there down the street from you than what is happening over there with Iran, that's just the reality. Particularly because we just proved last June with Operation Midnight Hammer, if they want to get above ground with their desires, they want to, they want to make it, known to the world that they're acting on them. We can just show up in the middle of the night, vomit to smithereens we can do that over and over again.
Military Operations in Iran and Geopolitical Ramifications of Perceived Weakness
You know, you have to mow your lawn more than once a summer, Jenna. You have to mow it over and over again. You know, so we had to mow the lawns of Iran in the middle of the night. We go from Operation Midnight Hammer to Operation Lug Nut and Operation Crescent Wrench, and, you know, cool. You know, you gotta mow the lawn. It's lawn mowing season in Iran. Great. But this entire thing was predicated, on. They thought they were gonna topple this regime. It's pretty obvious that they thought this thing was teetering. It was on the heels of Maduro. They thought that a severe bombing run with the tens of thousands that were already out in the streets protesting, they thought the regime was teetering and they were going to get a regime change on the cheap. And when that didn't happen, now you're cornered, because now you can't leave because you look weak. And, not weak necessarily to that region only. But now you tell Putin, just go ahead and drop a nuke on Ukraine, we got nothing. You tell China, go ahead and take Taiwan, we got nothing. And so we're cornered, just like we were cornered during COVID And there's no good answers here. So, But we also can't just sit here and sell and just take an L in the midterms. And so the reason why I came out with the post I did last week, that went viral all over the media, that the Republican Party's own pollsters in my home state sat down with our state House delegation and told them this.
Republican Polls Show President's Unpopularity Due to Tariffs and Unwanted Wars
Okay.
Steve Deace: That the president's minus 15 favorable. Iowa is 1. he's been the most popular politician in my home state for a decade. He's at minus 15 favorable. Why? Well, this is the problem we have in the Corn Belt. That's why the vice president has to go to Kansas. It's why vivait is barely above water, or maybe slightly underwater, depending on where you look in Ohio. Because in these Corn belt states here in the Midwest, you're getting it on both ends. The tariffs are being returned, reciprocated. Your exports are getting tariffed back by countries angry at our tariffs. Now, in these states, though, it didn't really hurt the president because they love him. They appreciate the fact he fights hard for their values, and so they stayed loyal. But now, as the year has gone on with a war that nobody wanted, this is almost like Trump's, read my lips, no new taxes moment, no more stupid wars, and then he starts one Right. And so now these same people who knew they were going to get the tariffs, the president was honest about that. They understand the paradigm of what he's trying to do, and, and the paradigm shift in global trade, that has been a negative for us for decades. And so they stuck it out, they served with them. That's their guy. But then they got a war. They prompt, they were promised they weren't going to get. And so now they're paying the high fuel and diesel, prices. Now everybody wants to pun it off on Ukraine, and that's made it worse. Ukraine bombing the refineries there. But diesel was outrageous until that began, like, you know, three weeks ago. It's. It's made it worse, but it was already outrageous. That's just a spin. So now they're getting in on the back end with something they weren't. They were promised they weren't going to get.
Addressing Coalition Depression and Learning from Democratic Midterm Messaging Strategies
And now they're starting to feel betrayed and they're angry. And so the biggest problem we have right now is a coalition depression issue. And so we've got to get our coalition back united, energized, fired up. And so the reason I came out with that data is because with six weeks to go, when I came out with the last week, it's five weeks now. There's still time to change this. We don't have to just sit here and take an L. And so what I think we frankly should do is take a page out of what worked for Democrats in 2022. They were facing a negative environment as well. Not as negative as this one, but pretty negative. And remember that speech, Jenna, that, Biden came out and gave, where he slurred through it and shook his fist, like, trying for the will in front of the red background and called us all Nazis. And we all kind of laughed at the time and said, if that's all they got, they got nothing. Turned out that was a deft political move because it re. Energized their base. Hey, remember, we're up against literal Nazis here. And it was enough for them to get kind of a, moral victory, slash draw. They still lost the House, but the catastrophic, losses that were being forecast around the country never really happened.
Accentuating Positives: Leveraging Democratic Weaknesses Over Highlighting GOP Shortcomings
Gretchen, Whitmer outperformed her polling by about 9 points on election day. it's just one example there in Michigan. I think we need to do the same thing. Stop talking about the war. It's not sellable. Look at it this way. You're on a first date with a guy, he's got a very obvious balding, receding hairline, but he's shredded. Should that guy, A, do a bad toupee and comb over just to remind you of his receding hairline and baldness, or B, should he wear the tightest freaking dress shirt he possibly button down dress shirt he could? So all you're looking at are his biceps and his pecs. And the answer is, baby, okay, you do not, do not continue to show people your weaknesses, but accentuate your positives. Right? The biggest positive we have is who we're running against. And the Democrats are running open Marxists, open Islamists, not even hiding it. They're openly telling you where the party for foreigners, not for Americans. And to me, I think you take that, the message, that message the president gave at a State of the Union when he said just that eight months ago. I think you go back, rewrap that clips of them just telling you that this is true. Right? And you're drawing a contrast here, right? That hey, because if the question is, are you willing to sacrifice the midterms, for some nebulous war kind of sort of war in Iran that still to this day no one knows what victory looks like or how it's achieved, the answer is going to be a resounding no. If you ask the question, are you willing to sacrifice, temporarily high gas prices in order to let Democrats permanently wreck your way of life, the answer to that question might be yes.
Strategic Messaging for Midterms: Focusing on Voter Concerns Over Divisive Wars
Okay.
Steve Deace: And so that's, or that question might be no too. I mean, so that's the question we want to be asking. And if that, if that's the question on enough voters, minds in enough key states, we've got a chance for that kind of moral victory. Maybe you lose the House, but you hold the Senate and you don't have, you know, Democrat governors in Ohio and in Iowa, which have been Trump strongholds. All right, that's the best case scenario for us now. but it's going to require the president to do something he's never really done. Well, he has generational strengths when it comes to, you know, steadfastness against persecution, deal making. But in terms of accepting sunk costs and moving on, he's a little bit like Kevan Costner's character in Tin Cup. He just, he's convinced this next one is the one that's going to clear the drink. And we're here for a half an hour just kind of watching the ball go in the, in the, in the pond. Okay.
Steve Deace: And so he's just got to say, politically, this is a loss. Nobody cares about this. We can't back out now, though, because we look weak. I can't sell it, so I'm just going to sell what I can sell. And that's what we need to be doing as a party right now. Hm.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. The economic principle of sunken costs.
GOP Messaging Failures and the Urgency of a Cohesive Strategy for Midterms
I mean, just don't continue to pour more into it and to essentially gamble the midterms, away. And that's what he's doing. And, you know, it's interesting a lot there, and I fully agree with you, and I've had a number of people on this program over the last several weeks, because obviously we're talking primarily about the midterms and asking this same question of what is the GOP doing in terms of messaging? And the answer, of course, is the same, just for maybe a few different angles. But if, if people are. Are coming to this program just saying, well, you know, but socialism is so bad, and how could anybody possibly vote for Democrats over Republicans? I think they're losing the bigger picture of what's going on here and where the mindset of the bases and also young voters in particular. And so the question really becomes then, Steve, let's say that they take your advice, and I think that they should. And it's wild to me that the White House at least, you know, Trump will say whatever he'll say, but there are plenty of people in Washington around him that could message this a whole lot better and still get some results. Let's say that they take your advice and starting today, they put together a plan. I don't know if it's.
Jenna Ellis: If it's too late.
Jenna Ellis: I mean, if people. I mean, some of the early voting has already started. It's going to start in the next, you know, week or two in, in a lot of states, and we're seeing a lot of candidates. I mean, even here in my home state of Florida, I mean, there's such a lack of enthusiasm overall for the, for the national GOP, for even the state GOP. There's great love for what Governor DeSantis has. But even though he's come out and endorsed Byron Donald's, he's, still potentially a point or two down. I mean, he's within the margin of error, which is just crazy.
Jenna Ellis: And why?
Jenna Ellis: Because the GOP has failed to take voters seriously in terms of just basic respect and saying, you know what? I care about the problems that you're facing, and I hear you, and we're actually going to work for you instead of going and either coronating in our primaries or, you know, going, to this war in Iran and persisting on all of this when everybody's going, well, what about the home front? I mean, would it actually matter? Because I see almost it being too late in Florida for Governor DeSantis to endorse Byron after the primary. I mean, he's not going to get as much traction out of that as it would be for the White House to change its messaging at this point.
Five Weeks as an Eternity: Re-evaluating Midterm Prospects and Republican Senate Map
Steve Deace: Well, five weeks in America is an eternity. Okay? I mean, five weeks is an eternity. Is it too late for some things? Might be. But you know, just in general, not trying to Jesus juke you, I just. But in general, I just think as Christians asking too late questions when we're the resurrection people is. We need to be careful with that. Okay.
Steve Deace: Because five weeks is an eternity. It is an eternity. Do I think it's too late to come out of this with some kind of, you know, more solidified housing house majority? Yeah, it's probably too late for that. But. But this can. But some form. First of all, there's only about 15 to 20 districts that are really truly swing districts in the first place. All right? So, and the Senate map is still very much favorable towards Republicans. you look at a state like my former home state of Michigan.
Michigan's Political Landscape and Adapting to Challenging Election Environments
This has been, you know, Michigan has been uniquely competitive this entire cycle despite the meta environment because, Michiganders have lived under the likes of El Said and Gretchen Whitmer for the last 10 years and they've essentially made the state my, former home state. California with winner is essentially what they've made it. And so, yeah, the President's won it, I would argue three times in presidential elections. There's not a great shot for Mike Rogers there, but I would say it's at least 40%. And that number's kind of been unchanged regardless of the Iran war because, there is a level of disdain among Democrats there and there is more unity within the Republican Party in the conservative ranks in Michigan than there's been, for, since, you know, a decade long rift has occurred. That's kind of a window to the, to. What I'm thinking is how do we turn this environment to our advantage? Right. In the end, you can't change an environment in elections. just like you can't change your weather environment, you know, and so some winners just suck, okay? Some winners, it's just blizzard after blizzard after blizzard after blizzard. But life has to go on. You don't stop going to work, you know, stop sending the kids to school. You don't stop, you know, getting together as a family. You just figure out we're going to need different kind of tires, really need to drive trucks.
Holding the Senate and Energizing the Republican Coalition Amidst Voter Apathy
You know, maybe we do a little bit less. You figure out how to work within the environment that you have. And there, there are ways for us to work within the environment we have and not just sit here and roll over and take an L. now, you know, can we get a great win? Probably not. Could we do enough to at least hold on to the Senate so that the entirety of Trump's domestic, agenda the next two years isn't stillborn? the first Wednesday in November? Yeah. Can we do enough so that we don't have a Democrat governor in Ohio? we don't have a James Talarico wannabe as governor of Iowa? you don't have a Talarico as senator from a state like Texas. Can we do enough so that might happen? Yeah. Can you do enough so that you can, you probably can't salvage the North Carolina race. Democrat candidate there is too strong, but the Democrat candidate in Minnesota is weak. Could you do enough there? We could, you know, a win where Myshel Tafoya pulls an upset, sure. Are these going to be impressive voting margins? Are these going to be anything like what DeSantis did in 22 or my governor, Kim Reynolds did, or anything like what Trump did in 24? No. Okay. But at the end of the year, man, they don't tell you. They don't, they don't ask you how you did it and how and who. They ask you how many. A win is a win.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, 100%. I mean, it's the same thing as, you know, taking the bar exam. Nobody has ever asked you, or asked me, either, by what percentage did you pass? Or even, you know, for some people, how many times they took it? It just matters, you know, are you licensed, are you elected? I mean, that's all that matters. And I think you're right to point out a couple of specific races because those are winnable. And even in Florida, I think that, Byron Donalds as governor is totally winnable, but he needs to start showing up, he needs to start changing his messaging and he needs to actually coalesce the base. Because I think the biggest issue in a lot of these races is Republican turnout. Because if Republicans stay home or they, they, they vote, either they abstain or they vote Democrat in some cases, as they're threatening to at the top of the ticket and then vote are all the way down. that's going to be a real problem. And so where do we focus for turnout?
Steve Deace: We need. We have a cola. You're correct.
Addressing Coalition Depression: Focusing on Prosecutions and Hard Negative Messaging
Number one issue we have is a coalition depression problem. And so right now, the things that our coalition is depressed about, we didn't, we didn't follow through with Epstein prosecutions that, no, no Democrat from the Obama administration to this day has been prosecuted for anything. We got another grandstanding show with Jack Smith yesterday. It should have ended with him in handcuffs, but it didn't. He just walked out. And we'll do it again for more headlines on Fox News later. All right, so, Pete, there's just certain. So what we need to do is we gotta go hard negative. We have to. We don't really have an aspirational message right now. That's not to say there haven't been a lot of great accomplishments. There are, but you have to give people the accomplishments they want, not the ones you're willing to give them. And the accomplishments that people wanted. Mass deportations. There's been more than we would have gotten but not met the mass deportations. We thought, there have not been prosecutions. we started a stupid war and we haven't rebounded. The meta constructs of the economy up, high look good.
Steve Deace: But the president's base is paycheck to paycheck working people. And their process has not gotten better. So we need to sell hard negative. We're running against Marxists. They'll ruin the country. You can't let them win. We need more time. That's the message. We need to run on hard negative, unite our base around what they all know they're against.
Jenna Ellis: Well said. All right, well, Steve Dase, I hope that, Republicans can get it together.
Listener Support and Introduction to Controversy in Republican Messaging
We'll continue the messaging and, we'll be right back with more.
Jenna Ellis: Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.netgive. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis: Well, speaking of Republicans just not getting the messaging correct and stirring up controversy where they really didn't have to.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders' Controversial Welfare to Work Ad and Public Backlash
Sarah, Huckabee said Sanders, a governor of Arkansas, is under fire this week for an Ad that is is trying to launch a policy, the welfare to work requirement. She says if you're young, healthy and get government assistance, you should work, go to school or volunteer. Great message. Right? But completely obfuscated by the fact that in her ad she's using a young guy named Brad, in this ad, who is a caricature of someone who is just sitting around playing video games, throwing up, cheese balls in the air and you know, trying to catch him in his mouth. And he is a young white male. And so she's gotten a lot of responses to this and Oren McIntyre, responded and said, young white men as welfare queens, you're a coward and a joke. so let's listen though to the ad. And meanwhile, for those who are just listening to the program, who can't see the ad or haven't seen this yet, just where they are in the background is this, you know, is this young man just sitting on a couch, his hair, you know, totally in disarray and basically lounge joggers and essentially just saying, you know, that young white men are the problem that are on welfare. As this ad continues, this is cut to. Yeah, you want some of this? Come on, meet Brad. Brad has turned relaxing into a full time profession. But you, you actually work hard, you pay taxes to cover welfare for guys like Brad who just choose not to work. That's why I launched a welfare to work requirement. Almost there. Now more Arkansans are working than ever before.
Critique of Ad's Caricature and Misrepresentation of Welfare Demographics
Even Brad.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and it says at the end there with that kind of Mario voice or not voiceover, but sound over. you win. While he's sitting there adjusting his tie. So who advised Sarah that this was a good idea? Because what I responded is some young white men may still live on their parents welfare and in their parents basement, but very few live on government welfare.
Welfare Abuse Realities vs. Ad's Safe Proxy: Targeting Young White Men
Those are two completely different issues and don't make the young white male a voting demographic. The GOP really needs the enemy here. so let's welcome in Oren McIntyre, who's a host over at the Blaze. And Oren, you know, I think that Sarah Sanders is receiving some well deserved backlash over this ad.
Auron MacIntyre : Yeah, look, as you say, the program is great, like the message itself would be great, but we should all be able to do here is, you know, praise a good policy. But unfortunately they decided to use horrific messaging to send this out. You know, you have a young white guy playing video games, being lazy, sitting there eating snack food. And it's not that that in of itself doesn't exist somewhere. But the point is the ad is specifically about welfare. And when we look at the numbers about who uses welfare, that's very clear that young white men are not the key demographic. They're not the first people who are going to be using welfare. In fact, they're literally the least likely people to be on welfare. They are more likely to be tax contributors than any other demographic. However, this is the one that is selected to be portrayed as somebody who's lazy, not working, collecting your tax dollars while they're sitting at home. They. The reality is that actually it's far more likely to be a minority person, often a woman. And that's actually what it would look like if it was being portrayed, accurately. But of course Sarah Huckabee Sanders knows that would be considered racist or offensive. So we use a safe proxy. And who's the one group you're allowed to safely make fun of portray as a loser? Well, of course young white men, because nobody cares about that demographic. So no matter how inaccurate the portrayal is, is it's the safest thing to do. And this just displays cowardice. Ultimately, if you wanted to portray somebody in the scenario, portray them realistically. And if you don't, well then just don't have, you know, the visual of someone doing this.
Cowardice in Messaging: Using Safe Targets Instead of Accurate Portrayals
But the idea that you would just kind of reach for this low hanging fruit, the easiest group to attack when you know, demographically they're the very least likely people to be engaged in the exact behavior you're portraying, it's just insulting.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And that encapsulates I think the, the sentiment from the right, from you know, her own base, her own coalition and you know, fellow conservatives, the outrage against this ad that it was just cowardice and the symbolism was there so that she would not be called racist instead of actually using an example potentially from reality. And you know, it wasn't that long ago that there were, there was a whole host of, you know, Instagram and and Facebook videos that were going viral of actual people. And a lot of them, you know, younger black women who were openly posting about how they were using and abusing their SNAP benefits, their own welfare. And you know, they have these, perfect, you know, manicures, they have perfectly done hair, the you know, false eyelashes. I mean all these things that cost a lot of money obviously. And they're still going out there on welfare. I mean if, if she was serious about this, instead of making a caricature out of a young white male Like Brad, why not actually use in the introduction some of these actual real life videos that people were so upset about? Yeah.
The Underground Welfare Abuse Economy and Missed Opportunities for Accurate Messaging
Auron MacIntyre : In fact, there's even another level of this. So your listeners might not know, but there's an entire underground economy based on abusing welfare. So for inst, there are plenty of businesses owned by people who have access to, food stamps, or their employees have access to food stamps, or their family has access to food stamps. And like local gas stations will often use those SNAP benefits to go buy Walmart products and then restock their local business, their gas station or their corner store with the products that they bought with those welfare benefits. Or there's also a bunch of people who buy the ingredients online or buy cooking, ingredients with their welfare benefits and then they make what are called plates, basically like takeout food in their kitchen and then they sell it on social media. I mean, entrepreneurial at some level, but you're using my tax benefits in order to start your little business. You're basically laundering my, you know, my, my tax dollars, through your welfare benefits and then turning a profit with them. This all exists. And like you said, there's plenty of videos, there's viral videos online. This evidence is everywhere. So if you wanted real life evidence of how we get welfare abuse, it was everywhere. It was very easy to see. And most people would have probably recognized those viral videos and said, oh yeah, I don't like that. That would have been a much better way to capture people's attention, much more effective. But again, we have to avoid being offensive because we have this dynamic where it's always okay to portray a young white guy as the villain.
GOP Messaging Incompetence and the Business of Losing Political Campaigns
You have this with security commercials, right? It's like a running joke in the ADT commercial. It's always some really handsome 35 year old white guy who's trying to break in to the house, as if that's the demographic most likely to be committing, home intrusion. So we see this across the board. She's you know, not the only one guilty of that, but she is a Republican, so she should be aware of what's going on here.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, this is baffling to me on, on all the levels that we're discussing, but more broadly in the conversation about how the GOP is just really not savvy right now with their messaging. And you know, and Sarah, Huckabee Sanders of course was the, the former press secretary. I mean she was in my opinion the best of the Trump's administrations. You know, so far I thought she did a brilliant job. She's no stranger to comms, she doesn't have to rely on consultants, and yet she puts out this ad in the middle of, you know, a midterm fight that everybody is wondering, where in the world is the GOP on messaging and basically just proving that the GOP is out of touch with what, the voters and the sentiment really is on the ground. And, and so more broadly, it was really interesting to see Spencer Pratt, you know, who, of course, is the actor, you know, that ran in LA and had some really excellent, viral ads that propelled him to about 30% in a 15%, Republican district. And he posted this yesterday. Guys, I hate to break it to you, but most political advisors are so bafflingly incompetent it would make your head spin. All the talented communicators go to work in Hollywood or at, you know, these consulting firms. And these political bros never tap these agencies for help. I've connected several campaigns with literally the best marketing geniuses in the game. Got them discounted rates even, and they just never even bothered calling. It truly feels like a lot of consultants and candidates just want to lose. And he goes on to say, there are a bunch of candidates who love it when their party loses power.
The GOP's Lack of Vision: A Movement Focused on Money Over Governance
It takes all the heat off of them because then they can't be expected to pass legislation when they're in the minority. Plus, they can fundraise. Way better off the rage when the opposition is running roughshod over the country. Baffling to watch. Now, he didn't call out the GOP by name, but this is literally what a lot of us have been saying for a while, that the GOP doesn't want to govern. these consultants are totally incompetent. And somehow it feels like at least the GOP really doesn't want to stay in the majority. And maybe they actually want to lose.
Auron MacIntyre : You know, my friend, always says that the Democrats have a movement and the Republicans have a market. And it's very clear that a lot of Republicans and a lot of the people in, the business of consulting for the right wing, for conservatives, are really only here for the money. They're really only here for status or the prestige when it comes to actually having a movement, actually having a vision, actually having a desire to rule, to lead, to govern. It's just not there. You know, it's only. They only want to be a congressman so they can, you know, go home and, get a nice dinner and have people want to Shake their hand and talk to famous people. The consultants only want to be involved because like you said, they can maximize their profits coming or going. And there's no real consideration for what it would look like to actually be in charge, fighting for every vote, fighting for every dollar, fighting for every position. it just is, it's a disaster. It's people who are more interested in maintaining a career in a business than it is people who are looking to win elections and govern the United States states. And that's just the mark of a unserious movement. It's people who think that they can take advantage of a crowd of people who actually want to see change.
Trump's Appeal and the Desire for Action in a Changing Political Landscape
And you know, we've seen this with the conservative movement for decades. That's why people got so excited about Trump, because they thought he was shaking up that status quo. They thought he really wanted to win and he really wanted to take power and he really wanted to do things. You know, the poltergeist pollster Rich Barris has been going around and he's been saying that, you know, young people especially, they want someone who's ready to change things. And that's why we were seeing the kind of whipsaw between, you know, Trump support on one side and then, you know, like mom, Donnie support on the other. It wouldn't make any sense except you realize that these young people are so desperate, they just want to see someone take action. And it's very clear that the GOP is just not interested in taking action, real action. And that's a very bad position to be in when people are looking for a very serious change to the way things are going. You can't let the left have a monopoly on actually doing things.
Jenna Ellis: Absolutely.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, and to your point,
Jenna Ellis: this, this was the sentiment back in 2016 where, you know, the, the GOP had almost been lulled to sleep, especially after, you know, the eight years of Obama. And it was like Republicans and, you know, morality are never going to get a strong foothold in this country again. And you know, things are lost.
Trump's 2016 Campaign Strategy and the Rise of Consultants
And Trump 2016 was remarkably different because Trump didn't hire from within the standard political consultant base. He didn't go and, you know, ask the establishment GOP what they thought of him. I mean, they hated him. And that was in, in large part why, the original OG MAGA loved him. And he didn't hire those consultants who genuinely have zero marketable skill sets except for their own survival. I mean, that's, I worked around them in, in Washington when I Worked for, on, his campaign side, I saw, you know, a lot of these, which unfortunately once Trump won in 2016, they turned around and because they are, you know, leeches for survival, then they went in and infected, you know, a lot of his operations. And you know, yeah, Trump had some kind of wacky hires, like, you know, remember way back in the day, like Omarosa and you know, Anthony Scaramucci and all that. But overall, his OG MAGA campaign worked because of the outside Washington, truly talented people, I mean, people like Brad Parscale, Katrina Pearson and others. But OG MAGA was also different in that Trump, like you said, I mean, people felt like he actually wanted to win. Where this time around the sentiment and that kind of, you know, outside Washington, Trump 2024, especially on, you know, this guy who had literally, you know, been shot at, he, all of the lawfare that was against him, he had risen like a phoenix from the ashes. I mean, greatest political comeback. Everybody was ready for him to go in and burn it down. And you know, now we're just sitting here like, where did that guy go? And you know, do you think that that part of the problem here is the consultants that infected, his view and his desire, you know, honestly to build for a post elected office, you know, kind of legacy and he wants to run the gop? or is this more a problem, you know, perhaps of Trump himself?
Trump's Momentum Loss and Defensive Stance Amidst Controversies
Auron MacIntyre : You know, of course it's hard to tell, you know, not being in the room, not being in the White House, not being in the town and you know, kind of interacting and knowing, the day to day ins and outs. But from an outsider looking in, it seems like Trump really lost momentum, especially around kind of the Epstein debacle, the fact that they were so bad at rolling out the Epstein files. And Trump seemed to take some kind of personal offense to the idea that people would want him to follow through on that promise and worked very hard to avoid the release and kind of attacked everybody who was involved in it. I think that put Trump in a, on a weird defensive place with his base. And then obviously, you know, the war in Iran and you know, kind of, the fact that some of the, you know, the economic, progress has not kind of turned out as he hoped. It seemed like Trump started to go into a little bit of a bunker mentality where he was, you know, just as interested in defending himself from his own bases and his own former supporters as he was from the media. And that kind of put him on the back side foot. And I think really killed a lot of his momentum and then also changed a lot of kind of the approach, the messaging, for the worse.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. And you know, again, I really hope that the GOP can figure it out, can turn around their messaging and that, you know, people on the state level, like, you know, Sarah Sanders, I thought she was smarter than that. And I think that, you know, those types of things are just adding to the overall all kind of pile on. We need to be smarter, we need to be better, especially heading into kind of this last month. So Orin McIntyre, really appreciate it. You can follow him on X. We will be right back with more.
Preborn Sponsor Message: Supporting Mothers and Saving Babies Through Ultrasounds
Jenna Ellis: We're living in a defining moment in history. Today, a woman facing an unexpected pregnancy can order the abortion pill online, often before anyone has had the chance to tell her she is loved, that she's not alone, or that there is hope. That's why you are needed right now. You were made for this moment. At PreBorn Network clinics, mothers are welcomed with compassion, practical support and a free ultrasound. And when she sees her baby and hears that tiny heartbeat for the very first time, fear often gives way to hope. In fact, more than 80% of abortion vulnerable women choose life after seeing their baby on an ultrasound and at a PreBorn Network clinic. That one moment can save a baby's life and open a mother's heart to the hope of Jesus Christ. This is our moment to stand. For those who cannot speak for themselves, just $28 provides one life saving ultrasound. $140 helps rescue five babies. Please don't wait. Dial pound 250 and say the keyword baby, that's pound 250 baby or give [email protected] afr that's preborn.com afr Together we can save lives one heartbeat at a time. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Florida's Statewide Races and the Tightening Contest Amidst National GOP Woes
Jenna Ellis: Well, as we're Talking about the GOP's messaging, this really difficult environment heading into midterms, there are a lot of statewide offices that we need to be paying attention to that are probably not being helped by this, this national environment for the gop. And one of these that, that we've mentioned a couple times in the program is in my home state of Florida with the governor's election. And so this coming from the Orlando Sentinel, their headline is do Democrats have a chance in November in GOP dominated Florida. Now this question is, I mean you would think six months ago would be utterly preposterous because of the headway that Governor DeSantis has made the free state of Florida has been the beacon for, red states, and we have over 1 million more registered Republicans. And so the math just seems to simply not be there. But the article goes on to say, in a state that has become a Republican Bastion, where the GOP has been in the governor's mansion for nearly 30 years, holds a super majority in the legislature, and loves that President Donald Trump calls Florida home. Democrats are not used to optimism. But in 2026, amid a toxic national environment for the GOP, Republican campaigns are suddenly sounding the alarms. they go on to say his recent polls and analyses show that Florida statewide contests are tightening ahead of the November election. Most experts think still think that Florida turning blue next month is unlikely. But they do see a path where Democrat for Governor David Jolly wins. And acknowledge, and acknowledge plenty of signs the GOP may be in distress, especially as the Republican in the White House is increasingly unpopular. So where do things actually stand? Let's welcome in James Fishback, who is a former a Florida gubernatorial candidate who ran against Byron Donalds in the primary. Had plenty to say, against him then.
Florida Gubernatorial Race: Republican Primary Division and Voter Conversion to Democrats
And, James, you've actually done some interesting polling yourself on this issue. Where do you think that Florida stands?
James Fishback: Well, good morning, Jenna. Yes, it is in fact unthinkable that Florida may elect its first Democrat governor in three decades. And it comes down to a failure. I think of the Republican Party and the candidate in question being able to consolidate and bring Republicans together after a very bitter primary. I know I was in it, but here's the truth. I don't want to see a Democrat win. I want to see a good America first Republican win our state. But the lack of debate in the primary, I think left so many people bitter about this being a coronation as opposed to an election. And so my team decided to do our own polling with a pretty good set. And that shows the number of voters and how they voted in the primary. And we went to them and we texted 30,000 Florida Republican primary voters, 30,000 of them. And we asked them a very simple question. Who are you voting for in the general? Knowing who they voted for in the primary from a prior question. And what we found is that those who did not vote for Congressman Donalds, which was less than half of them. More than half of them, rather, those who did not vote for Congressman Donalds, 28% of them say they are voting for the Democrat. Jenna, you and I both know if it was 28% of the non Donald's primary voters who said they were not voting. That would be insane. But to have 28% of non Donald's Republican primary voters saying they are voting for the Democrat, that statistic alone could be the difference between David Jolly, the Democrat, being the governor. And so it just speaks to a lack of cohesion, a lack of consolidation. I don't see very little out. I don't see any outrage from the Republican Party of Florida to these other candidates supporters to say, hey, well, we know there wasn't a debate, but we'd like to host a town hall, we'd like to host a call with your supporters and these top of the ticket candidates. And we just haven't seen that. And I think it comes down to this really recent, clash about Byron. Donald's saying he wants to debate. David Jolley saying if David Jolly doesn't debate, he's a coward. Why doesn't David Jolly debate? What does he have to hide? with all due respect to Byron, that's rather rich coming from the guy who refused three separate debate offers. CBS affiliate Fox affiliate Patrick bet David's debate, which I did, along with Speaker Renner and Lieutenant Governor Collins. And it was a great conversation. Over 100,000 people tuned in. And so this is going to be a fascinating election in a couple of weeks.
Florida's Shifting Political Landscape: Data Centers as a Key Issue Driving Voters
It's unthinkable that a Democrat could win, but that's, that's becoming increasingly likely at this point.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and I fully agree with you that I don't want to see a Democrat in office in Florida. you know, I mean, I moved here because of Governor DeSantis leadership, because this is a solidly now red state with conservative priorities. And, it's fascinating in your poll and your conversations with Floridians that instead of just saying, you know, hey, we're going to sit out, we're going to leave the top of the ticket blank, or we're going to, you know, write in somebody and then vote, you know, are all the way down. They're actually converting to voting for the Democrat. What have you in your conversations. What has primarily driven that posture? Because to me, that's even more extreme than simply saying, you know, I can't hold my nose and vote for Byron. But to actually say that they're going to be pro Democrat, that's a huge step.
James Fishback: It's a huge step. And these are lifelong Republicans. And this is not merely anecdotal. I mean, it's certainly a lot of anecdotal stuff because I've had these conversations across the state, but that's why I wanted to put it to a poll and text 30,000 people and get their responses and consolidate them. The biggest issue is data centers and really in a bigger sense development, which in data centers is part of this over development, urban sprawl question that Floridians we've been grappling with for years now. They just think that Byron is too weak on data centers. He's going to roll over for the data center lobby. They've already given him $5 million from that Andreessen Horowitz super PAC out in California. Tech bro. Left wing billionaires. They want to pave over wetlands in Florida, build data centers. They want to build a data center next to an elementary school in Palm Beach County. They want to turn our state into data center hell. And voters that I've spoken to, lifelong Republicans are so concerned about that issue and do not think Byron Donalds is good on that issue. And of course they look at David Jolly who's been out there, who went up to Northern Virginia, who met with residents who are being impacted by data centers, whether it's noise pollution, whether it's actual pollution, whether it's their property values going down, whether it's all the promises of data center for the local community never coming to fruition. And so they view David Jolly as their champion in stopping the data center invasion. At a time when most Republicans in Florida have moved past the culture wars and are focusing on an existential question like will there be a data center two miles up the road for my single family residential community? And so I see a lot of single issue voters on the data center issue. And because David Jolly of all people is more aligned with Florida Republicans on that issue than Byron Donalds, that's why you're seeing upwards of 28% switching over to Jolly.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, that's a really fascinating statistic.
Florida Election Dynamics: Debates, Republican Division, and Uniting the Base
and the issues, and some of this too, I think personally just, you know, kind of seeing where Florida's at, having, you know, some obviously anecdotal conversations. But, I think there's not as much fear among some Florida voters for David Jolly, because he was a former Republican in Congress. And I see that as being part of potentially, a misnomer actually, because I think he is very liberal, very extreme on a lot of policies, not on the data centers, but on a lot of policies. And now that he's he's actually refusing to debate, it may be in his best interest because you have, then the, the Republicans who are, who were mad at Donald's for not debating in the primary. I mean, they're doing the job of messaging for him. I mean, he doesn't even have to say that against Byron. It's everybody else who is really frustrated that Byron didn't debate in the primaries that are now, you know, saying that messaging for him and getting really frustrated with the Florida gop. But what's also interesting as well is that I don't see Byron and this is what I hope he does over, you know, the next month. I don't see him going back to some of the loudest voices who warned against him in the primary other than Governor DeSantis, you know, who showed up at the leadership forum. But people like, people like me, frankly, people like, you know, Daniel Loesch, people who have, you know, the, these bigger platforms and saying, yes, I will come on and have a conversation. You can ask me the hard questions because I want to win over the people who didn't vote for me in the primaries. He's not doing that. And I, for the life of me, I cannot understand why.
James Fishback: I think it's pride. I think it's the same pride and arrogance that led him deduct those debates to deride his fellow opponents to say that we, we, we, we are not deserving of being on a stage with him. That he should not platform us because we hadn't made our campaigns what they were. Two candidates got double digit, three candidates got double digits in this race. Jake Collins, myself and Byron Donald. There should have been a debate at least between the three of us. And we know that Speaker Renner did incredibly well to boot.
Keeping Florida Conservative: The Need for Republican Unity and Engagement
But I'll, just give you one. And I've actually never talked about this publicly. I have spoken to David Jolly more than I've spoken to Byron Donald since the election. And not because I'm, politically one way or the other on that. But David Jolly called me last week and we had about a 30, 40 minute conversation. We had. I pushed back in many ways. We have some very stern disagreements, but I want to hear everybody out. And I've probably spoken to Byron for a total of 30 seconds since the election, which was on election night when I called to concede. And so if Byron Donalds was serious about bringing in all Republican voters, he'd be on this show right now. You were a firm critic of him. He would be talking to my voters, hosting a town hall with me, with Jay Collins, with Paul Renner, bringing together a broad coalition of Republicans who are still on the fence about his candidacy. That's how we keep Florida in good, conservative hands. But he has to want this. We can't want it for him.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And that's the message over all of the gop. They have to want it. We, we can't just be pushing them. I hope that they will get serious from Florida to, you know, everywhere else in this country. But James Fishback, really appreciate the work that you're doing to keep Florida free. And red, you can follow him on X. And as always, you can reach me and my team.
Jenna Ellis: Jennaafr.net.
Preborn Sponsor Message: Saving Lives and Supporting Young Moms
M PreBorn has rescued over 400,000 babies from abortion. And every day their network clinics rescue 200 babies lives. Will you join PreBorn in loving and supporting young moms in crisis? Save a life today. Go to preborn.com afr.
Sponsor Message and Biblical Worldview Foundation for Governance
Jenna Ellis: We would like to take a moment to thank our sponsor, PreBorn. When a mother meets her baby on ultrasound and hears their heartbeat, it's a divine connection. And the majority of the time, she will choose life. But she can't do it without our help. Preborn needs us, the pro life community, to come alongside her. One ultrasound is just $28, and to donate, dial £250 and say the keyword baby or visit preborn.com afr Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Rad.
Jenna Ellis: I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time.
Midterm Election Concerns and Polling on the Iran War's Impact
This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Jenna Ellis: Good morning. It is Wednesday, September 30th, and as we are rapidly approaching the midterms, there's a lot of focus on the polling, a lot of concerns that the GOP is going to lose either the House or the Senate majority or both. And our good friend Steve Dace, posted an interesting poll, for what it's worth, and a lot of these are, you know, interesting to pull, the people who are paying attention to politics across social media. This was yesterday, and he posted, is whatever we've been trying to do in Iran slash Hormuz this year worth risking losing the midterms to the Democrats? Out of 2,213 votes, the final results said no at 78% and yes at 22. so I think this is a really interesting question, though, because, however you answer, this is basically suggesting that the GOP is going to lose. So, Steve, welcome back to the program. It's been a minute since we've talked to you, and, I think you're probably just as frustrated with the GOP as I am, but I thought this was an interesting question because, I think it shows that most people who answer no aren't fans of the war in Iran and are wondering, what in the world are we doing? And for the few people who are saying yes, it's a concession, essentially, that, probably the GOP will lose.
College Football Shoutout and Discussion on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
Steve Deace: Well, good morning. Back to you, Jenna, and let me just give a quick shout out, by the way, to the head man over there, Tim Wildmon, who's just got to be giddy with the start for his Mississippi State Bulldogs. And that Quarterback there. I know you got a big game coming up Saturday, so just wanted to say good morning to him.
Jenna Ellis: All about college football from our group chat this weekend. And I didn't have a lot to contribute. So that shout out means more to him coming from you.
Steve Deace: I'm sure it does, because probably the rest of this talk, is not going to be inspiring. So I want to start with that. the reality is, this question came about because this is the way the President is framing this. I mean, he framed it this way. To Laura Ingraham over the weekend, she pointed out, listen, if you don't do this war, we're sitting here at $2.25 gas. We're probably cruising in the midterms with the negative the Democrats have. He says, well, we don't know that, you know. And he says, suppose Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Now listen, Iran has wanted a nuclear weapon since it came. Since this regime came to power in 1979. There has, there has barely been a day that I've been alive that they have not wanted a nuclear weapon. There has not been a day that you've been alive that they did not want one. So we can't govern at all on supposed.
Governing by Reality Not Speculation: Comparing Iran Threats to Domestic Issues
That's a little bit like Debbie Burks and Anthony Fauci running into your office with an Imperial College survey, that turned out to be a complete and total farce. Academic fraud and saying, hey, if you don't shut the country down, supposedly you could kill 2 million people. We can't govern on supposedly when we have realities that are very determinative and existential. the reality is the current state of the Democratic Party. The current state. And you would think the guy that, they shot in the face and tried to imprison for 90 years and tried to bankrupt, you'd think that nobody would be more aware of this than him. but, the reality is that as much as I detest Iran, and as much as I am confident that every time a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard dies, an angel gets his wings, all right? Everybody within the sound of my voice is way more threatened by what the Democrats will do right there down the street from you than what is happening over there with Iran, that's just the reality. Particularly because we just proved last June with Operation Midnight Hammer, if they want to get above ground with their desires, they want to, they want to make it, known to the world that they're acting on them. We can just show up in the middle of the night, vomit to smithereens we can do that over and over again.
Military Operations in Iran and Geopolitical Ramifications of Perceived Weakness
You know, you have to mow your lawn more than once a summer, Jenna. You have to mow it over and over again. You know, so we had to mow the lawns of Iran in the middle of the night. We go from Operation Midnight Hammer to Operation Lug Nut and Operation Crescent Wrench, and, you know, cool. You know, you gotta mow the lawn. It's lawn mowing season in Iran. Great. But this entire thing was predicated, on. They thought they were gonna topple this regime. It's pretty obvious that they thought this thing was teetering. It was on the heels of Maduro. They thought that a severe bombing run with the tens of thousands that were already out in the streets protesting, they thought the regime was teetering and they were going to get a regime change on the cheap. And when that didn't happen, now you're cornered, because now you can't leave because you look weak. And, not weak necessarily to that region only. But now you tell Putin, just go ahead and drop a nuke on Ukraine, we got nothing. You tell China, go ahead and take Taiwan, we got nothing. And so we're cornered, just like we were cornered during COVID And there's no good answers here. So, But we also can't just sit here and sell and just take an L in the midterms. And so the reason why I came out with the post I did last week, that went viral all over the media, that the Republican Party's own pollsters in my home state sat down with our state House delegation and told them this.
Republican Polls Show President's Unpopularity Due to Tariffs and Unwanted Wars
Okay.
Steve Deace: That the president's minus 15 favorable. Iowa is 1. he's been the most popular politician in my home state for a decade. He's at minus 15 favorable. Why? Well, this is the problem we have in the Corn Belt. That's why the vice president has to go to Kansas. It's why vivait is barely above water, or maybe slightly underwater, depending on where you look in Ohio. Because in these Corn belt states here in the Midwest, you're getting it on both ends. The tariffs are being returned, reciprocated. Your exports are getting tariffed back by countries angry at our tariffs. Now, in these states, though, it didn't really hurt the president because they love him. They appreciate the fact he fights hard for their values, and so they stayed loyal. But now, as the year has gone on with a war that nobody wanted, this is almost like Trump's, read my lips, no new taxes moment, no more stupid wars, and then he starts one Right. And so now these same people who knew they were going to get the tariffs, the president was honest about that. They understand the paradigm of what he's trying to do, and, and the paradigm shift in global trade, that has been a negative for us for decades. And so they stuck it out, they served with them. That's their guy. But then they got a war. They prompt, they were promised they weren't going to get. And so now they're paying the high fuel and diesel, prices. Now everybody wants to pun it off on Ukraine, and that's made it worse. Ukraine bombing the refineries there. But diesel was outrageous until that began, like, you know, three weeks ago. It's. It's made it worse, but it was already outrageous. That's just a spin. So now they're getting in on the back end with something they weren't. They were promised they weren't going to get.
Addressing Coalition Depression and Learning from Democratic Midterm Messaging Strategies
And now they're starting to feel betrayed and they're angry. And so the biggest problem we have right now is a coalition depression issue. And so we've got to get our coalition back united, energized, fired up. And so the reason I came out with that data is because with six weeks to go, when I came out with the last week, it's five weeks now. There's still time to change this. We don't have to just sit here and take an L. And so what I think we frankly should do is take a page out of what worked for Democrats in 2022. They were facing a negative environment as well. Not as negative as this one, but pretty negative. And remember that speech, Jenna, that, Biden came out and gave, where he slurred through it and shook his fist, like, trying for the will in front of the red background and called us all Nazis. And we all kind of laughed at the time and said, if that's all they got, they got nothing. Turned out that was a deft political move because it re. Energized their base. Hey, remember, we're up against literal Nazis here. And it was enough for them to get kind of a, moral victory, slash draw. They still lost the House, but the catastrophic, losses that were being forecast around the country never really happened.
Accentuating Positives: Leveraging Democratic Weaknesses Over Highlighting GOP Shortcomings
Gretchen, Whitmer outperformed her polling by about 9 points on election day. it's just one example there in Michigan. I think we need to do the same thing. Stop talking about the war. It's not sellable. Look at it this way. You're on a first date with a guy, he's got a very obvious balding, receding hairline, but he's shredded. Should that guy, A, do a bad toupee and comb over just to remind you of his receding hairline and baldness, or B, should he wear the tightest freaking dress shirt he possibly button down dress shirt he could? So all you're looking at are his biceps and his pecs. And the answer is, baby, okay, you do not, do not continue to show people your weaknesses, but accentuate your positives. Right? The biggest positive we have is who we're running against. And the Democrats are running open Marxists, open Islamists, not even hiding it. They're openly telling you where the party for foreigners, not for Americans. And to me, I think you take that, the message, that message the president gave at a State of the Union when he said just that eight months ago. I think you go back, rewrap that clips of them just telling you that this is true. Right? And you're drawing a contrast here, right? That hey, because if the question is, are you willing to sacrifice the midterms, for some nebulous war kind of sort of war in Iran that still to this day no one knows what victory looks like or how it's achieved, the answer is going to be a resounding no. If you ask the question, are you willing to sacrifice, temporarily high gas prices in order to let Democrats permanently wreck your way of life, the answer to that question might be yes.
Strategic Messaging for Midterms: Focusing on Voter Concerns Over Divisive Wars
Okay.
Steve Deace: And so that's, or that question might be no too. I mean, so that's the question we want to be asking. And if that, if that's the question on enough voters, minds in enough key states, we've got a chance for that kind of moral victory. Maybe you lose the House, but you hold the Senate and you don't have, you know, Democrat governors in Ohio and in Iowa, which have been Trump strongholds. All right, that's the best case scenario for us now. but it's going to require the president to do something he's never really done. Well, he has generational strengths when it comes to, you know, steadfastness against persecution, deal making. But in terms of accepting sunk costs and moving on, he's a little bit like Kevan Costner's character in Tin Cup. He just, he's convinced this next one is the one that's going to clear the drink. And we're here for a half an hour just kind of watching the ball go in the, in the, in the pond. Okay.
Steve Deace: And so he's just got to say, politically, this is a loss. Nobody cares about this. We can't back out now, though, because we look weak. I can't sell it, so I'm just going to sell what I can sell. And that's what we need to be doing as a party right now. Hm.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. The economic principle of sunken costs.
GOP Messaging Failures and the Urgency of a Cohesive Strategy for Midterms
I mean, just don't continue to pour more into it and to essentially gamble the midterms, away. And that's what he's doing. And, you know, it's interesting a lot there, and I fully agree with you, and I've had a number of people on this program over the last several weeks, because obviously we're talking primarily about the midterms and asking this same question of what is the GOP doing in terms of messaging? And the answer, of course, is the same, just for maybe a few different angles. But if, if people are. Are coming to this program just saying, well, you know, but socialism is so bad, and how could anybody possibly vote for Democrats over Republicans? I think they're losing the bigger picture of what's going on here and where the mindset of the bases and also young voters in particular. And so the question really becomes then, Steve, let's say that they take your advice, and I think that they should. And it's wild to me that the White House at least, you know, Trump will say whatever he'll say, but there are plenty of people in Washington around him that could message this a whole lot better and still get some results. Let's say that they take your advice and starting today, they put together a plan. I don't know if it's.
Jenna Ellis: If it's too late.
Jenna Ellis: I mean, if people. I mean, some of the early voting has already started. It's going to start in the next, you know, week or two in, in a lot of states, and we're seeing a lot of candidates. I mean, even here in my home state of Florida, I mean, there's such a lack of enthusiasm overall for the, for the national GOP, for even the state GOP. There's great love for what Governor DeSantis has. But even though he's come out and endorsed Byron Donald's, he's, still potentially a point or two down. I mean, he's within the margin of error, which is just crazy.
Jenna Ellis: And why?
Jenna Ellis: Because the GOP has failed to take voters seriously in terms of just basic respect and saying, you know what? I care about the problems that you're facing, and I hear you, and we're actually going to work for you instead of going and either coronating in our primaries or, you know, going, to this war in Iran and persisting on all of this when everybody's going, well, what about the home front? I mean, would it actually matter? Because I see almost it being too late in Florida for Governor DeSantis to endorse Byron after the primary. I mean, he's not going to get as much traction out of that as it would be for the White House to change its messaging at this point.
Five Weeks as an Eternity: Re-evaluating Midterm Prospects and Republican Senate Map
Steve Deace: Well, five weeks in America is an eternity. Okay? I mean, five weeks is an eternity. Is it too late for some things? Might be. But you know, just in general, not trying to Jesus juke you, I just. But in general, I just think as Christians asking too late questions when we're the resurrection people is. We need to be careful with that. Okay.
Steve Deace: Because five weeks is an eternity. It is an eternity. Do I think it's too late to come out of this with some kind of, you know, more solidified housing house majority? Yeah, it's probably too late for that. But. But this can. But some form. First of all, there's only about 15 to 20 districts that are really truly swing districts in the first place. All right? So, and the Senate map is still very much favorable towards Republicans. you look at a state like my former home state of Michigan.
Michigan's Political Landscape and Adapting to Challenging Election Environments
This has been, you know, Michigan has been uniquely competitive this entire cycle despite the meta environment because, Michiganders have lived under the likes of El Said and Gretchen Whitmer for the last 10 years and they've essentially made the state my, former home state. California with winner is essentially what they've made it. And so, yeah, the President's won it, I would argue three times in presidential elections. There's not a great shot for Mike Rogers there, but I would say it's at least 40%. And that number's kind of been unchanged regardless of the Iran war because, there is a level of disdain among Democrats there and there is more unity within the Republican Party in the conservative ranks in Michigan than there's been, for, since, you know, a decade long rift has occurred. That's kind of a window to the, to. What I'm thinking is how do we turn this environment to our advantage? Right. In the end, you can't change an environment in elections. just like you can't change your weather environment, you know, and so some winners just suck, okay? Some winners, it's just blizzard after blizzard after blizzard after blizzard. But life has to go on. You don't stop going to work, you know, stop sending the kids to school. You don't stop, you know, getting together as a family. You just figure out we're going to need different kind of tires, really need to drive trucks.
Holding the Senate and Energizing the Republican Coalition Amidst Voter Apathy
You know, maybe we do a little bit less. You figure out how to work within the environment that you have. And there, there are ways for us to work within the environment we have and not just sit here and roll over and take an L. now, you know, can we get a great win? Probably not. Could we do enough to at least hold on to the Senate so that the entirety of Trump's domestic, agenda the next two years isn't stillborn? the first Wednesday in November? Yeah. Can we do enough so that we don't have a Democrat governor in Ohio? we don't have a James Talarico wannabe as governor of Iowa? you don't have a Talarico as senator from a state like Texas. Can we do enough so that might happen? Yeah. Can you do enough so that you can, you probably can't salvage the North Carolina race. Democrat candidate there is too strong, but the Democrat candidate in Minnesota is weak. Could you do enough there? We could, you know, a win where Myshel Tafoya pulls an upset, sure. Are these going to be impressive voting margins? Are these going to be anything like what DeSantis did in 22 or my governor, Kim Reynolds did, or anything like what Trump did in 24? No. Okay. But at the end of the year, man, they don't tell you. They don't, they don't ask you how you did it and how and who. They ask you how many. A win is a win.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, 100%. I mean, it's the same thing as, you know, taking the bar exam. Nobody has ever asked you, or asked me, either, by what percentage did you pass? Or even, you know, for some people, how many times they took it? It just matters, you know, are you licensed, are you elected? I mean, that's all that matters. And I think you're right to point out a couple of specific races because those are winnable. And even in Florida, I think that, Byron Donalds as governor is totally winnable, but he needs to start showing up, he needs to start changing his messaging and he needs to actually coalesce the base. Because I think the biggest issue in a lot of these races is Republican turnout. Because if Republicans stay home or they, they, they vote, either they abstain or they vote Democrat in some cases, as they're threatening to at the top of the ticket and then vote are all the way down. that's going to be a real problem. And so where do we focus for turnout?
Steve Deace: We need. We have a cola. You're correct.
Addressing Coalition Depression: Focusing on Prosecutions and Hard Negative Messaging
Number one issue we have is a coalition depression problem. And so right now, the things that our coalition is depressed about, we didn't, we didn't follow through with Epstein prosecutions that, no, no Democrat from the Obama administration to this day has been prosecuted for anything. We got another grandstanding show with Jack Smith yesterday. It should have ended with him in handcuffs, but it didn't. He just walked out. And we'll do it again for more headlines on Fox News later. All right, so, Pete, there's just certain. So what we need to do is we gotta go hard negative. We have to. We don't really have an aspirational message right now. That's not to say there haven't been a lot of great accomplishments. There are, but you have to give people the accomplishments they want, not the ones you're willing to give them. And the accomplishments that people wanted. Mass deportations. There's been more than we would have gotten but not met the mass deportations. We thought, there have not been prosecutions. we started a stupid war and we haven't rebounded. The meta constructs of the economy up, high look good.
Steve Deace: But the president's base is paycheck to paycheck working people. And their process has not gotten better. So we need to sell hard negative. We're running against Marxists. They'll ruin the country. You can't let them win. We need more time. That's the message. We need to run on hard negative, unite our base around what they all know they're against.
Jenna Ellis: Well said. All right, well, Steve Dase, I hope that, Republicans can get it together.
Listener Support and Introduction to Controversy in Republican Messaging
We'll continue the messaging and, we'll be right back with more.
Jenna Ellis: Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.netforward/give. That's afr.netgive. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis: Well, speaking of Republicans just not getting the messaging correct and stirring up controversy where they really didn't have to.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders' Controversial Welfare to Work Ad and Public Backlash
Sarah, Huckabee said Sanders, a governor of Arkansas, is under fire this week for an Ad that is is trying to launch a policy, the welfare to work requirement. She says if you're young, healthy and get government assistance, you should work, go to school or volunteer. Great message. Right? But completely obfuscated by the fact that in her ad she's using a young guy named Brad, in this ad, who is a caricature of someone who is just sitting around playing video games, throwing up, cheese balls in the air and you know, trying to catch him in his mouth. And he is a young white male. And so she's gotten a lot of responses to this and Oren McIntyre, responded and said, young white men as welfare queens, you're a coward and a joke. so let's listen though to the ad. And meanwhile, for those who are just listening to the program, who can't see the ad or haven't seen this yet, just where they are in the background is this, you know, is this young man just sitting on a couch, his hair, you know, totally in disarray and basically lounge joggers and essentially just saying, you know, that young white men are the problem that are on welfare. As this ad continues, this is cut to. Yeah, you want some of this? Come on, meet Brad. Brad has turned relaxing into a full time profession. But you, you actually work hard, you pay taxes to cover welfare for guys like Brad who just choose not to work. That's why I launched a welfare to work requirement. Almost there. Now more Arkansans are working than ever before.
Critique of Ad's Caricature and Misrepresentation of Welfare Demographics
Even Brad.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and it says at the end there with that kind of Mario voice or not voiceover, but sound over. you win. While he's sitting there adjusting his tie. So who advised Sarah that this was a good idea? Because what I responded is some young white men may still live on their parents welfare and in their parents basement, but very few live on government welfare.
Welfare Abuse Realities vs. Ad's Safe Proxy: Targeting Young White Men
Those are two completely different issues and don't make the young white male a voting demographic. The GOP really needs the enemy here. so let's welcome in Oren McIntyre, who's a host over at the Blaze. And Oren, you know, I think that Sarah Sanders is receiving some well deserved backlash over this ad.
Auron MacIntyre : Yeah, look, as you say, the program is great, like the message itself would be great, but we should all be able to do here is, you know, praise a good policy. But unfortunately they decided to use horrific messaging to send this out. You know, you have a young white guy playing video games, being lazy, sitting there eating snack food. And it's not that that in of itself doesn't exist somewhere. But the point is the ad is specifically about welfare. And when we look at the numbers about who uses welfare, that's very clear that young white men are not the key demographic. They're not the first people who are going to be using welfare. In fact, they're literally the least likely people to be on welfare. They are more likely to be tax contributors than any other demographic. However, this is the one that is selected to be portrayed as somebody who's lazy, not working, collecting your tax dollars while they're sitting at home. They. The reality is that actually it's far more likely to be a minority person, often a woman. And that's actually what it would look like if it was being portrayed, accurately. But of course Sarah Huckabee Sanders knows that would be considered racist or offensive. So we use a safe proxy. And who's the one group you're allowed to safely make fun of portray as a loser? Well, of course young white men, because nobody cares about that demographic. So no matter how inaccurate the portrayal is, is it's the safest thing to do. And this just displays cowardice. Ultimately, if you wanted to portray somebody in the scenario, portray them realistically. And if you don't, well then just don't have, you know, the visual of someone doing this.
Cowardice in Messaging: Using Safe Targets Instead of Accurate Portrayals
But the idea that you would just kind of reach for this low hanging fruit, the easiest group to attack when you know, demographically they're the very least likely people to be engaged in the exact behavior you're portraying, it's just insulting.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And that encapsulates I think the, the sentiment from the right, from you know, her own base, her own coalition and you know, fellow conservatives, the outrage against this ad that it was just cowardice and the symbolism was there so that she would not be called racist instead of actually using an example potentially from reality. And you know, it wasn't that long ago that there were, there was a whole host of, you know, Instagram and and Facebook videos that were going viral of actual people. And a lot of them, you know, younger black women who were openly posting about how they were using and abusing their SNAP benefits, their own welfare. And you know, they have these, perfect, you know, manicures, they have perfectly done hair, the you know, false eyelashes. I mean all these things that cost a lot of money obviously. And they're still going out there on welfare. I mean if, if she was serious about this, instead of making a caricature out of a young white male Like Brad, why not actually use in the introduction some of these actual real life videos that people were so upset about? Yeah.
The Underground Welfare Abuse Economy and Missed Opportunities for Accurate Messaging
Auron MacIntyre : In fact, there's even another level of this. So your listeners might not know, but there's an entire underground economy based on abusing welfare. So for inst, there are plenty of businesses owned by people who have access to, food stamps, or their employees have access to food stamps, or their family has access to food stamps. And like local gas stations will often use those SNAP benefits to go buy Walmart products and then restock their local business, their gas station or their corner store with the products that they bought with those welfare benefits. Or there's also a bunch of people who buy the ingredients online or buy cooking, ingredients with their welfare benefits and then they make what are called plates, basically like takeout food in their kitchen and then they sell it on social media. I mean, entrepreneurial at some level, but you're using my tax benefits in order to start your little business. You're basically laundering my, you know, my, my tax dollars, through your welfare benefits and then turning a profit with them. This all exists. And like you said, there's plenty of videos, there's viral videos online. This evidence is everywhere. So if you wanted real life evidence of how we get welfare abuse, it was everywhere. It was very easy to see. And most people would have probably recognized those viral videos and said, oh yeah, I don't like that. That would have been a much better way to capture people's attention, much more effective. But again, we have to avoid being offensive because we have this dynamic where it's always okay to portray a young white guy as the villain.
GOP Messaging Incompetence and the Business of Losing Political Campaigns
You have this with security commercials, right? It's like a running joke in the ADT commercial. It's always some really handsome 35 year old white guy who's trying to break in to the house, as if that's the demographic most likely to be committing, home intrusion. So we see this across the board. She's you know, not the only one guilty of that, but she is a Republican, so she should be aware of what's going on here.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, this is baffling to me on, on all the levels that we're discussing, but more broadly in the conversation about how the GOP is just really not savvy right now with their messaging. And you know, and Sarah, Huckabee Sanders of course was the, the former press secretary. I mean she was in my opinion the best of the Trump's administrations. You know, so far I thought she did a brilliant job. She's no stranger to comms, she doesn't have to rely on consultants, and yet she puts out this ad in the middle of, you know, a midterm fight that everybody is wondering, where in the world is the GOP on messaging and basically just proving that the GOP is out of touch with what, the voters and the sentiment really is on the ground. And, and so more broadly, it was really interesting to see Spencer Pratt, you know, who, of course, is the actor, you know, that ran in LA and had some really excellent, viral ads that propelled him to about 30% in a 15%, Republican district. And he posted this yesterday. Guys, I hate to break it to you, but most political advisors are so bafflingly incompetent it would make your head spin. All the talented communicators go to work in Hollywood or at, you know, these consulting firms. And these political bros never tap these agencies for help. I've connected several campaigns with literally the best marketing geniuses in the game. Got them discounted rates even, and they just never even bothered calling. It truly feels like a lot of consultants and candidates just want to lose. And he goes on to say, there are a bunch of candidates who love it when their party loses power.
The GOP's Lack of Vision: A Movement Focused on Money Over Governance
It takes all the heat off of them because then they can't be expected to pass legislation when they're in the minority. Plus, they can fundraise. Way better off the rage when the opposition is running roughshod over the country. Baffling to watch. Now, he didn't call out the GOP by name, but this is literally what a lot of us have been saying for a while, that the GOP doesn't want to govern. these consultants are totally incompetent. And somehow it feels like at least the GOP really doesn't want to stay in the majority. And maybe they actually want to lose.
Auron MacIntyre : You know, my friend, always says that the Democrats have a movement and the Republicans have a market. And it's very clear that a lot of Republicans and a lot of the people in, the business of consulting for the right wing, for conservatives, are really only here for the money. They're really only here for status or the prestige when it comes to actually having a movement, actually having a vision, actually having a desire to rule, to lead, to govern. It's just not there. You know, it's only. They only want to be a congressman so they can, you know, go home and, get a nice dinner and have people want to Shake their hand and talk to famous people. The consultants only want to be involved because like you said, they can maximize their profits coming or going. And there's no real consideration for what it would look like to actually be in charge, fighting for every vote, fighting for every dollar, fighting for every position. it just is, it's a disaster. It's people who are more interested in maintaining a career in a business than it is people who are looking to win elections and govern the United States states. And that's just the mark of a unserious movement. It's people who think that they can take advantage of a crowd of people who actually want to see change.
Trump's Appeal and the Desire for Action in a Changing Political Landscape
And you know, we've seen this with the conservative movement for decades. That's why people got so excited about Trump, because they thought he was shaking up that status quo. They thought he really wanted to win and he really wanted to take power and he really wanted to do things. You know, the poltergeist pollster Rich Barris has been going around and he's been saying that, you know, young people especially, they want someone who's ready to change things. And that's why we were seeing the kind of whipsaw between, you know, Trump support on one side and then, you know, like mom, Donnie support on the other. It wouldn't make any sense except you realize that these young people are so desperate, they just want to see someone take action. And it's very clear that the GOP is just not interested in taking action, real action. And that's a very bad position to be in when people are looking for a very serious change to the way things are going. You can't let the left have a monopoly on actually doing things.
Jenna Ellis: Absolutely.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, and to your point,
Jenna Ellis: this, this was the sentiment back in 2016 where, you know, the, the GOP had almost been lulled to sleep, especially after, you know, the eight years of Obama. And it was like Republicans and, you know, morality are never going to get a strong foothold in this country again. And you know, things are lost.
Trump's 2016 Campaign Strategy and the Rise of Consultants
And Trump 2016 was remarkably different because Trump didn't hire from within the standard political consultant base. He didn't go and, you know, ask the establishment GOP what they thought of him. I mean, they hated him. And that was in, in large part why, the original OG MAGA loved him. And he didn't hire those consultants who genuinely have zero marketable skill sets except for their own survival. I mean, that's, I worked around them in, in Washington when I Worked for, on, his campaign side, I saw, you know, a lot of these, which unfortunately once Trump won in 2016, they turned around and because they are, you know, leeches for survival, then they went in and infected, you know, a lot of his operations. And you know, yeah, Trump had some kind of wacky hires, like, you know, remember way back in the day, like Omarosa and you know, Anthony Scaramucci and all that. But overall, his OG MAGA campaign worked because of the outside Washington, truly talented people, I mean, people like Brad Parscale, Katrina Pearson and others. But OG MAGA was also different in that Trump, like you said, I mean, people felt like he actually wanted to win. Where this time around the sentiment and that kind of, you know, outside Washington, Trump 2024, especially on, you know, this guy who had literally, you know, been shot at, he, all of the lawfare that was against him, he had risen like a phoenix from the ashes. I mean, greatest political comeback. Everybody was ready for him to go in and burn it down. And you know, now we're just sitting here like, where did that guy go? And you know, do you think that that part of the problem here is the consultants that infected, his view and his desire, you know, honestly to build for a post elected office, you know, kind of legacy and he wants to run the gop? or is this more a problem, you know, perhaps of Trump himself?
Trump's Momentum Loss and Defensive Stance Amidst Controversies
Auron MacIntyre : You know, of course it's hard to tell, you know, not being in the room, not being in the White House, not being in the town and you know, kind of interacting and knowing, the day to day ins and outs. But from an outsider looking in, it seems like Trump really lost momentum, especially around kind of the Epstein debacle, the fact that they were so bad at rolling out the Epstein files. And Trump seemed to take some kind of personal offense to the idea that people would want him to follow through on that promise and worked very hard to avoid the release and kind of attacked everybody who was involved in it. I think that put Trump in a, on a weird defensive place with his base. And then obviously, you know, the war in Iran and you know, kind of, the fact that some of the, you know, the economic, progress has not kind of turned out as he hoped. It seemed like Trump started to go into a little bit of a bunker mentality where he was, you know, just as interested in defending himself from his own bases and his own former supporters as he was from the media. And that kind of put him on the back side foot. And I think really killed a lot of his momentum and then also changed a lot of kind of the approach, the messaging, for the worse.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. And you know, again, I really hope that the GOP can figure it out, can turn around their messaging and that, you know, people on the state level, like, you know, Sarah Sanders, I thought she was smarter than that. And I think that, you know, those types of things are just adding to the overall all kind of pile on. We need to be smarter, we need to be better, especially heading into kind of this last month. So Orin McIntyre, really appreciate it. You can follow him on X. We will be right back with more.
Preborn Sponsor Message: Supporting Mothers and Saving Babies Through Ultrasounds
Jenna Ellis: We're living in a defining moment in history. Today, a woman facing an unexpected pregnancy can order the abortion pill online, often before anyone has had the chance to tell her she is loved, that she's not alone, or that there is hope. That's why you are needed right now. You were made for this moment. At PreBorn Network clinics, mothers are welcomed with compassion, practical support and a free ultrasound. And when she sees her baby and hears that tiny heartbeat for the very first time, fear often gives way to hope. In fact, more than 80% of abortion vulnerable women choose life after seeing their baby on an ultrasound and at a PreBorn Network clinic. That one moment can save a baby's life and open a mother's heart to the hope of Jesus Christ. This is our moment to stand. For those who cannot speak for themselves, just $28 provides one life saving ultrasound. $140 helps rescue five babies. Please don't wait. Dial pound 250 and say the keyword baby, that's pound 250 baby or give [email protected] afr that's preborn.com afr Together we can save lives one heartbeat at a time. welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio. Welcome back.
Florida's Statewide Races and the Tightening Contest Amidst National GOP Woes
Jenna Ellis: Well, as we're Talking about the GOP's messaging, this really difficult environment heading into midterms, there are a lot of statewide offices that we need to be paying attention to that are probably not being helped by this, this national environment for the gop. And one of these that, that we've mentioned a couple times in the program is in my home state of Florida with the governor's election. And so this coming from the Orlando Sentinel, their headline is do Democrats have a chance in November in GOP dominated Florida. Now this question is, I mean you would think six months ago would be utterly preposterous because of the headway that Governor DeSantis has made the free state of Florida has been the beacon for, red states, and we have over 1 million more registered Republicans. And so the math just seems to simply not be there. But the article goes on to say, in a state that has become a Republican Bastion, where the GOP has been in the governor's mansion for nearly 30 years, holds a super majority in the legislature, and loves that President Donald Trump calls Florida home. Democrats are not used to optimism. But in 2026, amid a toxic national environment for the GOP, Republican campaigns are suddenly sounding the alarms. they go on to say his recent polls and analyses show that Florida statewide contests are tightening ahead of the November election. Most experts think still think that Florida turning blue next month is unlikely. But they do see a path where Democrat for Governor David Jolly wins. And acknowledge, and acknowledge plenty of signs the GOP may be in distress, especially as the Republican in the White House is increasingly unpopular. So where do things actually stand? Let's welcome in James Fishback, who is a former a Florida gubernatorial candidate who ran against Byron Donalds in the primary. Had plenty to say, against him then.
Florida Gubernatorial Race: Republican Primary Division and Voter Conversion to Democrats
And, James, you've actually done some interesting polling yourself on this issue. Where do you think that Florida stands?
James Fishback: Well, good morning, Jenna. Yes, it is in fact unthinkable that Florida may elect its first Democrat governor in three decades. And it comes down to a failure. I think of the Republican Party and the candidate in question being able to consolidate and bring Republicans together after a very bitter primary. I know I was in it, but here's the truth. I don't want to see a Democrat win. I want to see a good America first Republican win our state. But the lack of debate in the primary, I think left so many people bitter about this being a coronation as opposed to an election. And so my team decided to do our own polling with a pretty good set. And that shows the number of voters and how they voted in the primary. And we went to them and we texted 30,000 Florida Republican primary voters, 30,000 of them. And we asked them a very simple question. Who are you voting for in the general? Knowing who they voted for in the primary from a prior question. And what we found is that those who did not vote for Congressman Donalds, which was less than half of them. More than half of them, rather, those who did not vote for Congressman Donalds, 28% of them say they are voting for the Democrat. Jenna, you and I both know if it was 28% of the non Donald's primary voters who said they were not voting. That would be insane. But to have 28% of non Donald's Republican primary voters saying they are voting for the Democrat, that statistic alone could be the difference between David Jolly, the Democrat, being the governor. And so it just speaks to a lack of cohesion, a lack of consolidation. I don't see very little out. I don't see any outrage from the Republican Party of Florida to these other candidates supporters to say, hey, well, we know there wasn't a debate, but we'd like to host a town hall, we'd like to host a call with your supporters and these top of the ticket candidates. And we just haven't seen that. And I think it comes down to this really recent, clash about Byron. Donald's saying he wants to debate. David Jolley saying if David Jolly doesn't debate, he's a coward. Why doesn't David Jolly debate? What does he have to hide? with all due respect to Byron, that's rather rich coming from the guy who refused three separate debate offers. CBS affiliate Fox affiliate Patrick bet David's debate, which I did, along with Speaker Renner and Lieutenant Governor Collins. And it was a great conversation. Over 100,000 people tuned in. And so this is going to be a fascinating election in a couple of weeks.
Florida's Shifting Political Landscape: Data Centers as a Key Issue Driving Voters
It's unthinkable that a Democrat could win, but that's, that's becoming increasingly likely at this point.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and I fully agree with you that I don't want to see a Democrat in office in Florida. you know, I mean, I moved here because of Governor DeSantis leadership, because this is a solidly now red state with conservative priorities. And, it's fascinating in your poll and your conversations with Floridians that instead of just saying, you know, hey, we're going to sit out, we're going to leave the top of the ticket blank, or we're going to, you know, write in somebody and then vote, you know, are all the way down. They're actually converting to voting for the Democrat. What have you in your conversations. What has primarily driven that posture? Because to me, that's even more extreme than simply saying, you know, I can't hold my nose and vote for Byron. But to actually say that they're going to be pro Democrat, that's a huge step.
James Fishback: It's a huge step. And these are lifelong Republicans. And this is not merely anecdotal. I mean, it's certainly a lot of anecdotal stuff because I've had these conversations across the state, but that's why I wanted to put it to a poll and text 30,000 people and get their responses and consolidate them. The biggest issue is data centers and really in a bigger sense development, which in data centers is part of this over development, urban sprawl question that Floridians we've been grappling with for years now. They just think that Byron is too weak on data centers. He's going to roll over for the data center lobby. They've already given him $5 million from that Andreessen Horowitz super PAC out in California. Tech bro. Left wing billionaires. They want to pave over wetlands in Florida, build data centers. They want to build a data center next to an elementary school in Palm Beach County. They want to turn our state into data center hell. And voters that I've spoken to, lifelong Republicans are so concerned about that issue and do not think Byron Donalds is good on that issue. And of course they look at David Jolly who's been out there, who went up to Northern Virginia, who met with residents who are being impacted by data centers, whether it's noise pollution, whether it's actual pollution, whether it's their property values going down, whether it's all the promises of data center for the local community never coming to fruition. And so they view David Jolly as their champion in stopping the data center invasion. At a time when most Republicans in Florida have moved past the culture wars and are focusing on an existential question like will there be a data center two miles up the road for my single family residential community? And so I see a lot of single issue voters on the data center issue. And because David Jolly of all people is more aligned with Florida Republicans on that issue than Byron Donalds, that's why you're seeing upwards of 28% switching over to Jolly.
Jenna Ellis: And you know, that's a really fascinating statistic.
Florida Election Dynamics: Debates, Republican Division, and Uniting the Base
and the issues, and some of this too, I think personally just, you know, kind of seeing where Florida's at, having, you know, some obviously anecdotal conversations. But, I think there's not as much fear among some Florida voters for David Jolly, because he was a former Republican in Congress. And I see that as being part of potentially, a misnomer actually, because I think he is very liberal, very extreme on a lot of policies, not on the data centers, but on a lot of policies. And now that he's he's actually refusing to debate, it may be in his best interest because you have, then the, the Republicans who are, who were mad at Donald's for not debating in the primary. I mean, they're doing the job of messaging for him. I mean, he doesn't even have to say that against Byron. It's everybody else who is really frustrated that Byron didn't debate in the primaries that are now, you know, saying that messaging for him and getting really frustrated with the Florida gop. But what's also interesting as well is that I don't see Byron and this is what I hope he does over, you know, the next month. I don't see him going back to some of the loudest voices who warned against him in the primary other than Governor DeSantis, you know, who showed up at the leadership forum. But people like, people like me, frankly, people like, you know, Daniel Loesch, people who have, you know, the, these bigger platforms and saying, yes, I will come on and have a conversation. You can ask me the hard questions because I want to win over the people who didn't vote for me in the primaries. He's not doing that. And I, for the life of me, I cannot understand why.
James Fishback: I think it's pride. I think it's the same pride and arrogance that led him deduct those debates to deride his fellow opponents to say that we, we, we, we are not deserving of being on a stage with him. That he should not platform us because we hadn't made our campaigns what they were. Two candidates got double digit, three candidates got double digits in this race. Jake Collins, myself and Byron Donald. There should have been a debate at least between the three of us. And we know that Speaker Renner did incredibly well to boot.
Keeping Florida Conservative: The Need for Republican Unity and Engagement
But I'll, just give you one. And I've actually never talked about this publicly. I have spoken to David Jolly more than I've spoken to Byron Donald since the election. And not because I'm, politically one way or the other on that. But David Jolly called me last week and we had about a 30, 40 minute conversation. We had. I pushed back in many ways. We have some very stern disagreements, but I want to hear everybody out. And I've probably spoken to Byron for a total of 30 seconds since the election, which was on election night when I called to concede. And so if Byron Donalds was serious about bringing in all Republican voters, he'd be on this show right now. You were a firm critic of him. He would be talking to my voters, hosting a town hall with me, with Jay Collins, with Paul Renner, bringing together a broad coalition of Republicans who are still on the fence about his candidacy. That's how we keep Florida in good, conservative hands. But he has to want this. We can't want it for him.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And that's the message over all of the gop. They have to want it. We, we can't just be pushing them. I hope that they will get serious from Florida to, you know, everywhere else in this country. But James Fishback, really appreciate the work that you're doing to keep Florida free. And red, you can follow him on X. And as always, you can reach me and my team.
Jenna Ellis: Jennaafr.net.
Preborn Sponsor Message: Saving Lives and Supporting Young Moms
M PreBorn has rescued over 400,000 babies from abortion. And every day their network clinics rescue 200 babies lives. Will you join PreBorn in loving and supporting young moms in crisis? Save a life today. Go to preborn.com afr.
Jenna Ellis discusses the pressing issues facing the GOP as the midterms approach, focusing on the potential impacts of polling and messaging strategies. Joined by Steven Deace, they analyze the public's sentiment regarding the GOP's direction, the war in Iran, and the importance of uniting the party to avoid losing ground. The conversation dives into the challenges of effective communication and the necessity for the party to adapt its approach to resonate with voters.
Live
Did you know American Family Radio is listener-supported? Your monthly financial support will allow us to continue upholding Godly values through our numerous channels, like American Family Radio, One Million Moms, The Stand magazine, and many more.
Become a Great Commission Partner TODAY to help AFR transform culture by rebuilding the family. When you donate today, you’ll get access to:
