Introduction to the Podcast and the Critical Examination of the Republican Party's Future
Foreign.
Jenna Ellis: Welcome to On Demand. This is our AFR exclusive podcast where we get to do a deeper dive into the issues you care about from the guests that you love to hear from. And today's topic, may not be one that is a favorite among m, a lot of our regular listeners, because we're going to do some critiquing and some hard, honest look at where the Republican Party, the MAGA movement and the future of America is. I think that this is a very important and also timely topic because we've got to confront the realities and the political realities of where we're at. And, this came, to me that this piece, a couple of days ago from Real Clear Politics, from Rich Barris, who's a pollster. You may be following him on social media. If you aren't, I would encourage you to do so. because I want to read through this piece. I very rarely take the time to actually read an entire piece on air. But this is just so good with so many pull quotes.
Analyzing Rich Barris's Commentary on Young Voters and the Misconceptions Held by Republicans
And I want you to get, you know, the entire argument before actually bring on Rich Barris and have this, further and extended conversation. I think this is one of the best commentaries, right now on where young voters are at, where, you know, the Republican Party is just saying socialism, bad, and, you know, Republicans are the champions of, you know, traditional American values. So of course you're going to vote for us. but the data actually suggests otherwise. And so this is titled Young Voters Did Not Elect Trump for this. So listen to this commentary by Rich Barris. He says everything Republicans thought they knew about younger voters who backed them less than two years ago is wrong. Conservative pundits and consultants have had an almost bipolar misunderstanding of these now disaffected Americans. When President Donald Trump made his historical, historic political comeback in 2024, a slew of right wing commentators repeated each other's claims that the zoomers were just, quote, unquote, more conservative than previous cohorts. That was news to us, given Big Data poll was met with fierce skepticism leading up to that election, explicitly because we led the industry in identifying trends indicating the President was making significant gains with younger non white voters.
The Shifting Sands of Young Voter Allegiance: From Trump's Support to Disillusionment
Some of these very same consultants argued that our trends showed little more than a polling mirage, the result of higher sampling errors for subgroups. Their slowness in coming to the realization that these trends were in fact very real has only been rivaled by more recent attempts to reconcile that rightward shift in 2024 with the events that have transpired since now, following the rise of the dsa, the Democratic Socialists of America, and declining support for Republicans, these voters, many of those same commentators are dismissing the pleas of Gen Z as the grievances of lazy socialists. Those dismissals are typically prefaced by a lecture on how to pull yourself up by the bootstraps, quit looking for handouts, learn how to cook at home, and stop buying $20 burritos. We can revisit the wisdom of that message at a later time. For now, let's just start out by pointing out that that neither of those two contradictory claims is true, nor does either of them sufficiently explain why these voters are abandoning the President and his party's candidates less than two years after supporting them.
Examining the Coalition Fracture: Declining Approval Ratings Among Young Voters and the Search for Answers
To hear them tell it, there's no coalition fracture in this story at all. But that too, is false. During the years in between President Trump's first and second non consecutive terms to include the relevant months leading up to the election in 2024, Big Data Poll asked voters about his retrospective approval rating. This gives us a, more apples to apples juxtaposition for the key demographic groups as opposed to the more commonly cited apples to oranges exercises that compare prior vote share to current approval ratings. The accuracy of that poll regarding the President's margin of victory should be enough to demonstrate that approval ratings are not always the best comparison to make to make to vote share. That being said, the President's job approval has declined since November 2024among all demographic groups shown here, and there's a link to that. Okay, so. However, the age group that experienced the largest net negative swing was now the 18 to 29 cohort. Zoomers, once almost identical to the national overall, have swung negative 32.9% in approval, against the president since the election. Millennial overlap in the 30 to 44 age bucket improved slightly in September at minus 27.1 after showing a net negative 33.5% swing the prior month. That this coalition fracture has happened and is continuing to happen is no longer up for debate. The only relevant questions for the President and Republicans to ask and answer are as follows. 1. What's driving these younger voters to abandon Republican candidates they supported on a limited basis in 2024 because of their support for President Trump? Second, what did they expect?
Understanding the 'America First' Appeal to Younger Voters and the Misinterpretation by Traditional Republicans
Or what did they want? And perhaps more importantly, why do they want it? As is often the case with political punditry, people are over complicating the answers to these questions. That's in large part because so few truly understood why various Demographics supported America first in 2024, including younger voters. Donald Trump was not reelected after dozens of felony indictments because he enjoyed improved margins among more conservative baby boomers and voters in the silent generation. The president was reelected fairly easily in a historically moderate electorate because of a significant right wing shift among voters below the age of 65 to include millennials and Gen Z. The Pew Research Voter Validated Post Election survey showed voters 65 years or older who overlap. These dwindling cohorts supported the president by a slightly smaller margin in 2024 than in 2023 points versus four points. Pew's findings were very much in line with our final national poll conducted from October 30 to November 3, 2024. Roughly 2 in 10, or 22.3% of voters aged 18 to 29 identified as Conservative, nearly identical to the share that identified as liberal 23 point percent. Only 29, 26.7 of voters ages 30 to 44 identified as conservative, suggesting future electorates could very well be even more moderate. Millennials born in the 1980s represented the largest group of defectors from 2020 to 2024, while turnout patterns largely drove swings among those born in the 1900s and or the 1990s. Let's not date ourselves too far the 1990s and 2000s. These younger Americans did not vote for Donald Trump to go along, to get along, or to return to the same brand of Republican politics they associate with starting foolish wars and destroying the economy, just as many of them were trying to get started in life. To them, that was the Republican Party, made unalive by Bushism before President Trump came along and raised it from the dead like Jesus raised Nazareth raised Lazarus from the tomb.
Young Voters' Radical Vision: Rejecting Institutions and Seeking Systemic Change Through Donald Trump
They care nothing for ideological litmus tests and loyalty to their dogmas, nor do they value leaders who take principled losing stances that never improve their lives. These young Americans saw Donald Trump and J.D. vance as their last chance to correct the listing of a sinking ship, to right the wrongs done by a system that failed them repeatedly. They called themselves moderate only because they reject labels. But make no mistake, there is little moderate about the view of these younger generations. They are radical, reactionary and, dare I say, revolutionary. They believe institutions revered by both sides are hollow and serve only to perpetuate a system that is rigged by an old order that feeds itself first and calls it governance. While they and their fellow citizens get shafted, they elected President Trump and Vice President Vance to burn it down. They did not get the retribution they were promised, and Republicans were suddenly baffled because these voters had the audacity to expect what they were promised. Put plainly, President Trump and right wing coalition candidates who rode his coattails were elected in 2024 by a younger, more diverse coalition than previous Republican coalitions. Yet the Republican majorities governed as if they were elected by a shrinking majority of boomers glued to Fox News. As a result, the Republican coalition is now shrinking, along with a share of voters who identify with a very brand that made it being a Republican cool again. Since 2024, the percentage of voters who identify as America first or MAGA has declined. Most significantly for a younger and non white voter. Older white voters are the only demographic to report increased identification.
Republican Governance Blunders and the Shifting Demographics: A Catastrophic Combination for the Party
That's remarkable, given that they are precisely the voters who did not identify with the movement in 2024. Older white voters do not want to upend a system that has been designed to benefit them at the peak of their golden years. But this rug pull has wreaked havoc on the President's approval rating among voters they absolutely need to win elections. This combination of, ignorance of their own coalition and the regression back to the priorities of the pre Trump GOP has proven catastrophic. It put the viability of the Republican Party in doubt and handed socialists a golden opportunity. The chart simply tracks the President's second term approval rating by key events, with events in blue showing potential to improve his ratings and events in red proving to have had a negative impact. And that chart is linked in this article. We can clearly see the President's numbers, took a wrong turn when the administration pivoted away from what was a popular domestic agenda to being consumed by foreign policy and war. The generic ballot tracker provides further confirmation. Again, a hyperlink in the article. Republicans lost their lead for the US House almost immediately after after Operation Midnight Hammer. Here's the unfiltered reality Republicans now need to face. It was always either MAGA or Mamdani. Neither party has the voting coalition in the electoral chamber they would need to successfully turn back the clock. The oldest boomers, boomer one turned 80 in 2026.
The Demographic Shift: Millennials and Gen Z Replacing Older Voters and the Republican Challenge
Over the next few cycles, we will begin to see them rapidly replaced by younger voting cohorts. In 2017, millennials became the largest cohort in the voting eligible population. While Boomer two are a more reliable voting bloc than either Gen Z or Millennials, they are also a more Democratic friendly bloc than their older Vietnam War serving counterparts. So Jones Boomers or Boomers too, filled the ranks of the professional managerial class who for more than four decades served the political order young Americans wanted Trump to. As they became a larger share of voters 65 and older. The senior vote will continue to get more competitive without those less reliable, now disaffected younger voters who helped propel them to victory in 2024. Republicans will find it increasingly difficult to win national elections. It's really that simple. If Republicans do not re embrace the platform and the agenda that put voters first, instead of returning to the Grand Old Party that prioritizes perks for special interests and wars for foreign lobbies, younger voters will find another instrument of change. They will find someone else to be their champion.
Republicans' Doomed Conservatism and the Need to Confront Reality: A Discussion with Rich Barris
Republicans are trying to conserve an order that is already doomed. With or without them, these younger Americans are going to burn it down. If Republicans insist on remaining on the wrong side of this thing, they'll burn down what remains of Trump's coalition down right along with it. All right, so Rich Barris, this article in Real Clear Politics, so interesting, so fascinating. I've heard so many conservative, commentators say that this was the best commentary so far that they have seen on the midterms. And one of the most fascinating poll quotes that I took from this was this, they, the young voters elected President Trump and Vice President Vance to burn it down. They did not get the retribution they were promised. And Republicans were suddenly baffled because these voters had the audacity to expect what they promised. I mean, I think that's a fair commentary.
Rich Baris: First of all, thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. And I, I, I find myself a little bit stunned, Jenna, that the people are struggling to have, to grasp why it is that they're having trouble with the strugg voters now. And I think we can trace some of this problem to the, to the beginning when Republicans, and of course the president did so much better with younger voters and younger non white voters, which is also very key. I think they just didn't understand why these voters voted for them in the first place, which is incredible for a presidential campaign especially, but it's just incredible. You know, normally when parties lose, they'll do an autopsy.
The Republican Party's Failure to Understand Its Coalition and the Consequences of Governing for the Wrong Demographic
the Republican Party just move forward and you don't do an autopsy when you win, of course, but you should have some grasp of the, of the voters in your coalition, what they want, and especially if you build one like President Trump did, where you can have these different demographics that have very different interests than other demographics in your coalition. And Republicans are so used to winning off of an older, certainly whiter vote that they just didn't see it and they move forward. They governed for that one group and they left these other voters hanging out there, you know, with all of these promises. And the most astonishing thing about it is this campaign and this message wasn't really for the traditional Republican voting bloc. It wasn't. And that's why he won. And they didn't know that, didn't understand it. It's a little bit, it's kind of, it's like irony is not even the right word.
Jenna Ellis: yeah. And I mean, I have to believe that they did know that and that they understand it, but just for some reason, and that's the sticking point for me, some reason there wasn't follow through.
The Disconnect Between Promises and Actions: Why Trump's Coalition Felt Betrayed and the Need for Executive Action
And I get that, you know, that President Trump m. Doesn't control the Senate. I mean, you know, Leader Thune is frustrating. You know, we get all of that. And so maybe the SAVE act isn't going to be pushed through, but for the province of just the executive. I mean, why aren't we seeing, as you mentioned in this piece, why aren't we seeing more arrests and you know, the kind of these parades of firings from the FBI? I mean, we should be seeing, you know, at least 10 people with like, yeah, like a webcam, you know, right on the building of the, the FBI and saying, you know, look at the, these people that we fired, we're parading them out, we're draining the swamp. We're, doing all of the things, that, you know, that Doge promised. And at least where there is the power of the executive, if Trump was at least following through on the things he does have power and control over, then we could rightly say, okay, it's just the establishment Republicans then. And so we want to vote for everybody that Trump is endorsing because we want to shape up the Congress as well. I mean, that to me would have been the logical progression after 2024.
Distinguishing Between Clueless Politicians and Strategic Miscalculations in the Trump Administration
Rich Baris: Yeah. And I think you made a good. I think you drew a good distinction. And the correct one, I think you're right, which is that, look, I mean, anyone who knows any of us, who know some of the Republicans in Congress, whether it's the Senate or the House, they are clueless. A lot of them just are completely. But the President and his team, they're not. They did know, at least a good deal of this. And I hate to say it, but I think that the answer to our question is just that this administration is different than the first. And there have been a lot of powerful lobbies that know a lot of people. And when, when it became time to choose. I mean, I'm really, I wish I had a better answer than this, but I really do believe this. When it became time to choose, what do we do with Big Pharma? What do we do with Fauci? What do we do with the FBI? There were people who just wanted one go along to get along, and then two others that just had different interests.
The Ultimate Rug Pull: Voters Expected Retribution, But Received Lobbyist-Influenced Inaction
Janet. Like, I'm not going to go after, Pfizer for lying through warp speed. I'm not going to do this because some of some people have connections to various lobbies. And that's really unfortunate because that's the ultimate rug pull, because these voters thought they were getting more of Donald. And again, I think this is important to note real quick in going into 24, and it's probably a year and a half of polling before the election that Donald Trump and our polling was always winning. This was never really a close election. It wasn't even a hard election to poll. Before they pulled the switcheroo with Biden, he was drumming him. And, yeah, Harris got a little bit of a bump for a little while after they did that. But this was really Donald Trump's election to lose.
Pollster's Perspective: Why Voters Felt Lied to and Desired a Different Trump Than the One They Received
And as a pollster, and I still interview people myself, which a lot of pollsters don't do, of course, you can't do it with everybody, but you do try to sit down and speak to people that you think are key and communicate with American voters. And it was a very simple AP test. They felt that the country was lied to. Joe Biden was senile. All of the stuff with the Russia hoax was not real. Donald Trump was doing a good job, especially on the economy. We hadn't gotten into any new wars, and they wanted that Trump back. And it was so key to give them that Trump back. And they didn't get that guy. Be honest. They got something very different, this administration and that. And it took them by surprise. It's, you know, it's. Speaking of a switcheroo, I mean, we pulled a switcheroo on them.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
Trump 2.0 vs. Trump 1.0: A Surprising Shift and the Constitutional Boundaries of Executive Power
I mean, you know, I worked for Trump, during his first admin, and I was surprised at how different Trump 2.0 is. I mean, there are some good things, I think. You know, there's not a lot of the kind of, you know, clownishness, frankly, that, you know, was in kind of the first admin. there are a few good things we can point to, but overall, you know, my take on it, from watching the first admin from the inside and then seeing what was promised in the second, I was actually concerned that the retribution would go too hard and too far outside the margins of what the executive can actually constitutionally do. I mean, like, my whole caution was, you know, hey, remember that you do have constitutional boundaries. And, I mean, that. That was what I thought we were going to have to rein in. especially because in his first administration, it seemed like he was distracted by, you know, the Russia collusion hoax and then the first impeachment, and then, you know, the whole Covid disaster. And it was like he was trying to focus on the economy and draining the swamp and doing all of the things that he promised. And he just got heavily waylaid by all of these, these, Democratic, you know, guns that they were throwing at him, that we thought that if he got a second chance, he would come in knowing a lot more, saying, okay, I'm not going to be blindsided as the outsider to this crazy machine that is Washington.
Disappointment in Trump's Second Term: The Fighter's Ebb and the Gatekeeping of Washington D.C.
He'd know where all the levers are that he can pull and actually get things done. And I think that overall, we can fairly say we've been a little disappointed in it. And I think that for the vast majority of these voters that you're talking about, they're disappointed as well. And I just. I really don't know what to attribute that to, because Trump is a fighter. And it would seem to me that, you know, this kind of 2.0 that we're getting is. It doesn't line up with what we've historically seen from, you know, the champion, the guy who wants to be the man in the ring.
Rich Baris: Yeah. And for the first three to five months, it was going well, because I think, you know, you're right. I mean, he just. He was an outsider, and he. When the first time around, he really didn't know, and a lot of people around him didn't know how the government works, how to take control of it as best you can anyway, than any executive can take control of this giant bureaucracy at this point. and it looked like in the beginning that some of what looked to be gatekeeping was really just, you know, what I learned my lesson. Experience. And we're going to keep the leaks to a minimum.
The First Five Months of Trump's Second Term: Ecstatic Voters and the Devolving Gatekeeping Problem
We're not going to let the administrative state run circles around us. after about five months or so, that just seemed to devolve into gatekeeping for different reasons. but. But if you look back in those first three to five months, you'll see the voters that writing about in this column, they were ecstatic. They loved it. They loved Doge. I mean, his approval during the height of the Doge, era. Let's call it, his approval rating about three months in with voters who were under 40 years old was still above 60%. And consider that now with where he is 18 to 29, he was still at 58%. I'm looking at it right now just as a reference point. and now that has collapsed into 20s and 30s, and, it's an enormous swing. And at this point, we're obviously getting very close into the midterms. These voters, they didn't care. And I think this is crucial. You know, you and I care about those constitutional boundaries that you were talking about.
Young Voters' Disregard for Institutions and Their Desire for Action Over Constitutional Reverence
And one of the polls that jump out at me that we ran, we did for the, you know, a lot of, A lot of the stuff that's in the book, we, we didn't talk about publicly outside of just maybe I'm in an interview and I'll say it, but we didn't report it and put it out on the website. But when the judge, for instance, ordered Trump to turn the plane around, these younger voters, they wanted what they wanted done. And their response to that was, he's the president. Don't turn that plane around. Don't listen to the judge. Just keep going. So Republicans are going to have to come to grips really soon with the fact that, you know, these younger generations, for whatever reason, I think we can talk about what reason. They're not at all, they have no reverence for these institutions that people talk about and care about. It's just. They just don't.
The Generational Divide: Young Voters' Urgency vs. Baby Boomers' Stability and Unmet Basic Needs
They're a different breed. They want action because they feel that we're in such a dire situation, and really, they're in such a dire situation, you know, the baby boomers. And it's no, you know, it's no attack on any generation. It's just a fact. You know, they're, they're getting older in age, and so their interest in, like, shaking up those institutions and really, you know, burning it down, burning the system down and, you know, revamping, starting, not from scratch, but obviously, from a place where they feel they have the same opportunity that prior generations have. That's not a very enticing proposition for people who are in the twilight of their life or in their golden years. They don't want the boat rock, Jenna. They don't want institutions shaken up. So we have these two groups who voted for the Republican coalition in 24 just diametrically opposed to what they want. And that's unfortunate because we have, we need to almost go through an education moment for some of these, younger voters and they're so angry at this point we would never be able to do it. But we need to explain or re explain to certain Americans why these institutions are important. And right now we'll never be able to do that because they feel their basic needs are not being met. And when you, when your basic needs, it's basic Abraham Maslow and you're, you know, you're low rung, your basic needs aren't being met. You care nothing about self actualization or anything theoretical. You're just trying to meet those needs.
The 'Burn It Down' Mentality: Young Americans' Desire for a System Reset and Institutional Failure
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, I mean this is what we've seen in historic, you know, world revolutions. And you know we've seen when societies or governments or other institutions fail, it's because you know, people feel that their basic needs aren't being met. And the book by the way is Burn it down, by Rich Barris. And it, you can get that wherever books are sold from Simon and Schuster, but Burn it down. What the polls say young Americans really want. And I've seen this from a lot of the young political commentators as well and then even some of the, you know, the more in my generation of millennial, conservatives basically saying, you know, our institutions have failed and there's no rescuing them. We need to just start over completely basically. And there is a real problem I think, just not only practically but also philosophically with that and constitutionally as well. But you know, when you have this divide now between what Trump is actually doing versus what the voters believe they elected him to do, I don't think that Trump is oblivious to this, but do you think that part of this potentially is securing his place within the Republican Party and kind of the MAGA Inc. movement that I see as basically the 2028 and beyond Trump Org, because he's never going to go back to, you know, what he used to be and being embraced by the liberal left and all of this, I mean that ship has sailed a long time ago. So you know, for his future it's almost like he's becoming part of the swamp because he hasn't been able to join it to secure his place and ah, after he doesn't have another election left.
Trump's Strategic Calculation: Securing His Place Within MAGA Inc. and the Loss of His Outsider Appeal
Rich Baris: Yeah, I do think that's, I do think that's part of the calculation and has been from the beginning. And you know that first time he goes in and he is that outsider and he is that anti establishment and he meets a lot of resistance from it. And then by the way, we did have a four year in between Period, where he was persecuted. And that's got to have some kind of an effect on someone's psyche. I mean, you could be an extremely strong leader, an extremely strong figure. And it's still going to bother you if you walk up and find that, you know, the doors of Trump Tower chained, and you have to think, you know what? I gotta find my place in this thing. So I think that is absolutely correct. And I don't want to jump in the man's head or try to, but you can almost not do that. Right. You have to. I just think that it was a miscalculation because, unfortunately, his strength always came from him not being a part of that establishment. He was that outsider role, that underdog role is what gave him that people's champion role. And when you strip that from him, you take away what's so appealing from so many people about Donald Trump. And I just.
The Retreat to Principles: A Shrinking Hardcore Base and the Consequences of Embracing the Establishment
I don't know how nobody could have seen that. Right. I get it. And you're out after two terms, and. And you wanna do what other presidents do. Right. They go on to build their libraries, and they have their role as the elder statesman in the party, but Trump's never been the Republican Barack Obama. And Barack Obama's always going to be somebody who then later was revered and then became part of, if not the leader of that establishment. they were never gonna accept Trump as that. And I think he made an error here. I think he made a huge error because his real chain mail, his real suit of armor has always been his pop with the Republican voter. And even that now is in question. And I know a lot of people, obviously still out there support Donald Trump, and they don't want to hear this, but it is truth. I mean, it's becoming now a shrinking share, which we talk about, I talk about in the op ed, as a result of this. They're going through this purification through subtraction. I don't want to say evolution. It's not because evolution typically means going forward. It's more like a regression. They're going backward, and it's like they're closing the ranks and the Big Ten is gone. And now. Now it's just, okay, we're a dwindling number of supporters. Yes, we're the most hardcore of those supporters. But, Jenna, they're not enough. I mean, that's what it comes down to. They're not enough.
The Miscalculation of Endorsing Establishment Incumbents and Trump's Shift from Outsider to Insider
They're not even enough to protect him later in life. If Democrats attempt to do what they did between 2021 and 2024, you need the people on your side, to be able to beat back that kind of resistance. And if you become part of the establishment, you lose it.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I completely agree with you that it was a miscalculation. And Trump's strength has always been that he's the outsider and he's the one who's warring against, you know, the deep state and almost the Republicans and Democrats together, you know, and when he goes out and endorses, you know, the, the establishment incumbents, like previously, Lindsey Graham, before, his untimely passing it, but then his, his sister, you know, who. Everybody's going, why are you doing this? And, you know, we could have a host of other names that he has endorsed that everybody's saying, but these are the guys that we want out of Congress. You know, what are you doing? It seems that, you know, Trump, initially, in 2015, he came in and actually ran for president because he genuinely cared about correcting a lot of the wrongs that had been perpetuated by both parties. But even the establishment Republicans, I mean, he didn't come in, as you know, I may, I'm, a part of the Republican team. He totally was an outsider. He was willing to speak truth to power on both sides. But then he came in and almost seemed like he wanted to join that team where if he had come in even in a second term and said, okay, I'm going to destroy as much of this as possible.
The Power of Resistance: How Trump Could Have Become a Voice for Change and the Demographic Shift in Electorates
I'm not going to yield to, you know, anything that the Senate wants. I'm just going to go, you know, full steam ahead. Then after he leaves office, he would have become this voice of the resistance that I think more people would have followed and actually would have solidified an even better position than being, you know, kind of this, you know, a marriage, I mean, nobody listens to Bush anymore. Nobody cares. Right. You know, he would have actually been more relevant in that posture than trying to be sort of the Chancellor of, you know, GOP Inc.
Rich Baris: I could not agree more. And as just putting my pollster hat on. As a pollster and an election analyst, I look at who is coming into this electorate and who, you know, for lack of better terms, being phased out. I mean, that's life. I'm not trying to, you know, sound, macabre or anything. It's just that, you know, coalition change because time moves on and people die. And these newer generations that are going to start replacing older voters at, at rates we just haven't seen, because baby boomers, they've Been the center of the universe for four years. The silent gen is already, we're talking low single digits in the electorate. Millennials Already, as of 2017, they're the largest share of the voting eligible population.
The Millennial Electorate's Potential and Trump's Missed Opportunity by Aligning with Yesterday's Party
They just don't vote. And millennials, you should do something about that, because you could make an incredible amount of positive change if you would just vote. If you would vote at comparable rates like older voters, you could do the equivalent of political damage, to the system. but because they're not, people haven't been taking them as seriously. But for me, that's all I do. And I look forward and I think, okay, what is the electorate going to look like in five years? Right. Which is a point in time when we're talking about right now where Trump would be as he exits the White House and he would be the elder seat statesman of the movement. It would have strengthened him, Jenna. He would have strengthened him. He would have had more voters and more people coming into the electorate. Gen Z, two to one over, over, over baby boomers every year. So his. His support and his legend would have grown. And instead, he took the side of yesterday.
The Doomed Future of Yesterday's Republican Party and Trump's Lost Chance for Long-Term Movement Success
I don't know how else to put it. He took the side of the Republican Party of yesterday that even am. If America first or the more insurgent wing of the party goes on to lose a couple cycles of primaries in a row, that side of yesterday is still doomed because ultimately, they don't have a constituency, they don't have a coalition to build in the future. And if you were really thinking about this in the long term, if you were Trump, you would have said, you know what, it's going to be a rocky few years, but four years from now, six years from now, things are going to go well for me, they're going to be going well for the family, and they're going to be going well for the movement. And no, I guess nobody told him that. I. I'm not sure anybody even thinks like that over there, but that's why it is. It's a. It was a miscalculation, unfortunately for him.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And, you know, one of the things that I respected the most about him when I worked for him was he just, at least in that, in that time period, you know, and I'm thinking back, like, you know, late 2018, 2019, he was ready to fight and just didn't care. I mean, it was almost like, okay, we got to remind you of the margins of the Constitution, because he would want to get things done. And then, you Know, some of his lawyers were like, well, we can't do that. And he's like, well, I don't care. Get it done. You know, and that was the kind of attitude, though, that.
The Search for a Champion: Evaluating Potential Leaders for the 'Burn It Down' Voters
That people wanted to see because we were tired of, you know, the lame Republicans that just, you know, wanted to go along, to get along and didn't really do much and, you know, kind of what we're experiencing right now. So, you know, with. With all of this said Rich, who then becomes the champion of these voters. And, you know, we look at a figure like J.D. vance, where I think there's still this perception that, okay, maybe he's the one because he's younger and he's, you know, kind of got that grit. maybe he's the one to get this done. we look at, you know, the Rubio type of figure or even, you know, the Ron DeSantis, where, you know, I love Governor DeSantis. I mean, I moved to Florida because of him. I was very disappointed, like so many other people, in how, you know, he ran his presidential campaign. I, think hiring all of the Ted Cruz, you know, former losers to Trump, was a huge miscalculation. I think he has the potential to be that kind of great president because he just doesn't care about the media. He doesn't care about being liked. He just cares about wanting to get things done. I don't know, though, that he'll have the same gravitas that he did in 2024, which, you know, maybe looking back, it wasn't a great idea to run against Trump for, you know, all of the reasons that ultimately became evident. But, with all of this, I don't think the sentiment from these voters of burn it down is going away anytime soon.
DeSantis's Potential and Vance's Challenge: Navigating the Political Landscape and the Desire for Change
So who do they select at this juncture to be their next champion?
Rich Baris: Well, this is my concern because, you know, thinking about Governor DeSantis, it's interesting. I've been. Because I have been watching him very closely, and he does seem to get the entire thesis of the book. It's like, I can see the actions he's making. I see the statements he makes publicly, the tweets he fires off, and I can tell that he gets it. He does. And he's even trying to, if not give them a voice, maybe even trying to position himself. But I do agree with everything you said about whether or not that's possible. It is potential. It could potentially be the case that things. And I hate to tell people this, but things are so bad at the end of this term, that he does have an opportunity again to say, you know what I've learned. Let's try this again. because, look, this is J.D. vance's problem. And, look, I personally love the Vice President. I think his heart is in the right place. He's a millennial, and his story, is very. It's unique. So he's this Midwest millennial who grew up in the environment.
J.D. Vance's Unique Position and the Jury Still Out on His Future Political Impact
that was the product of all of these problems that these people are talking about. So he's unique in that. In that he's got that lived experience, which is why he communicates so well about it and to people. I worry, however, that, you know, he's. He's always going to be Trump's number two. And I talk to people about this all the time. They're mad he didn't do more to start the war. They're mad he didn't. And that's not fair. You know, working in government, that's just not. That's not a fair criticism. But sometimes Americans are unfair, and it's a. You just get a bad. You just get a bad rap. So, I mean, we'll see. I think the jury is still out on that. as far as Rubio, I think he's probably. He's just too hawkish on foreign policy, and he's just got a different, you know, he's from a. He's cut from a different cloth. So I think we're.
The Danger of Left-Wing Populism and the Rise of the DSA as a Potential Alternative for Disenfranchised Voters
This is why I'm concerned, and this is why I wrote the book, hoping that at this point we could still have time to course correct and kind of save this thing. Because my big concern is that they won't. You know, they. First, the, instincts of a lot of these young, younger voters was not to go vote for a socialist. It was to give the ball to the populist right and see if they'll run it down the field. And because they didn't. My real concern and fear, honestly, I am a father, I have three kids, is that they're going to pick these socialists, and not because they are socialists, but out of just desperation. And you and I both know that this is always the false promise. Left wing populism is a false promise, and it always devolves into some crazy, often violent form of Marxism. And people like RJ Rommel write entire books about it and give it a name. Democide. Right. I mean, this gets way out of hand and it's very dangerous. But they don't know that. And unfortunately, all they know is that El Sayed is speaking about the issues they care about, and others. I mean, the rise of the DSA is a real thing. I think it's almost certainly going to defeat the Democratic establishment. The only question is whether or not, like, when it does, how establishment will it become like we're seeing with MAGA now? Then will it do what MAGA did and turn into what it defeated, or will it stay more true to itself? Because if it does, we're in a lot of trouble, Jenna.
The Unfortunate Forecast: The Rise of the DSA and the Potential for a New Political Landscape
I mean, that's, that's just, you know, the unfortunate forecast. We need other people to step up, come from, you know, come from a different area or, if this thing can be salvaged. I do think the vice president is probably still is at this moment, the strongest one we poll. But, you know, sometimes the sins of one administration take its toll on the number two. And that's why often vice presidents don't make great candidates for president. Joe Biden did it, but he did it all those years later. Right. And he had a bit of a comeback moment. but I don't want to doom too much on people here because, look, Barack Obama came out of nowhere. He came out of left field. Democrats weren't even thinking about him. They were set to nominate Hillary. And he rose up seemingly out of nowhere and was one of the most incredible candidates. Whether you agree with his government or not, he was an incredible candidate. That certainly can happen now.
The Ideal Leader and Trump's Impact on Making Politics About Popularity and Loyalty
There are always those dark horses. But as of right now, what we see is that there's just some people of the choices they've made in the past are going to make it hard in the future for them to move forward.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah. And I agree, with that analysis as well. And you know, in, in my view, in a perfect world, as far as my vote is concerned, I would love to see Governor DeSantis, you know, get into the White House. I think he would be the best leader because as you rightly said, you know, he gets this. And, and I think what he's done in Florida, if we can do that on a federal level, that that's exactly what all of the voters across the population actually want. And it's really frustrating when, you know, the personalities, the campaigns, all of that kind of get in the way. and Trump certainly hasn't helped that to a large extent. I mean, he's made this more about popularity and loyalty than even politics, has been for a long time.
The Republican Misunderstanding of Young Voters and the Appeal of DSA Candidates' Rhetoric
I mean, I think he's just reinforced that and maybe concentrated that inside of, you know, the MAGA voter, but you mentioned a really important point, Rich, that, you know, these voters are potentially going to the DSA candidates, not because they're actually socialists, but because they feel like there's just no other option. And, well, let's give this a chance because, you know, at least the rhetoric and the campaigns are what I want to hear. the Republicans really don't seem to get that. I mean, they, they think that somehow, you know, capitalism and taxation is theft and, you know, some of these kind of, you know, phrases that, like, true, but maybe that worked 10, 20 years ago, is going to work on this younger generation. And they really, I think, don't get that the younger generation of voters are actually, genuinely considering this and that they have to do more. the Republicans have to do more than just, well, socialism is evil and blah, blah, blah. How dare evil you. that's not going to work. And, and how concerned are you looking at the polls right now that some of these candidates actually are going to get elected and potentially, you know, change the environment for potentially, you know, decades to come?
Rich Baris: that's my primary concern right now.
Republicans' Failure to Connect with Voters' Needs and the Evolving Political Landscape
And you're right, Republicans don't get it. I mean, this has been one of my great failures over the last year, year and a half. I try to sit down and talk to people that, you know, look, hurling this term at people, just doesn't scare them as much as the idea that they may not be able to make their rent or their mortgage payment this month or be able to put groceries in the refrigerator. And just recently going up and talking to some people about what their midterm, what the pivoting into Labor Day, what their message would be this fall, that. That was it. Well, we're going to make this a referendum on the parties and we're going to use, we're going to scare everybody with socialism. And I tried to explain, well, which one is more scary, you know, the prospect of somebody who's talking about the issues you care about getting into office or not being able to get back to school clothes for your kids. I mean, this is crazy. It's just not that way anymore. And by the way, fascism is a much more scary term. And that still didn't work on Donald Trump when Democrats tried to use it, looking at just somebody like Mamdani, for instance, in NewSong York City, there were about, of the people who voted in that election, about a quarter of them, approved of the jobs that Donald Trump was doing as president. It's obviously a liberal area, but Trump still did very well, in the five boroughs, in 24 for a Republican, one in five, about of those voters actually voted for Mamdani. And we chased a bunch of them down. And Janet, that's all this came down to. It just throwing terms Islamist, socialist. All that just went in one ear and out the other. All they heard was, he's going to help me make my rent, he's going to help me get groceries under control, he's going to help me do this. You know, I mean, he spoke about the issues that they cared about at the time. And Republicans are trying to divert people's attention away from those issues instead of speaking to them. And just to go Back to Governor DeSantis real quick, I just want to point out, because I think he deserves credit for this.
DeSantis's Early Recognition of Voter Needs and the Need for Republicans to Adapt to a New Political Reality
This was even as far back as the NewSong York, you know, the election for the mayoral election in NewSong York City. Even back then, Governor DeSantis was saying things publicly like, we can't just do this. We have to meet people's needs. We have to make people's lives better. They will change, they will turn. And for, all of the criticisms, people would respond, well, that's not a lot of people. In the world of political coalition building, one in five is the equivalent of the tectonic plate shifting beneath your feet. I mean, it's a huge deal, it's a huge shift. It's how Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016. so Republicans are going to have to get this through their head. It's just a different world. It's not going to work. Because when these guys get into office, and I do think, unfortunately, we're going to see a bunch of them get into office in the fall. When they get in, their decision is going to be, how much do they want to challenge the Democratic establishment. I've been impressed with how disciplined they have been. Even though they really have very little political experience and they have very little infrastructure, they have been able to kind of turn down the crazy. Jenna. Right? I mean, you remember the first administration. It was Democrats were out of control.
The Discipline of DSA Candidates and the Republican Failure to Grasp the Shifting Political Tides
Their number one enemy was really was themselves. They were beating themselves, and Trump was fighting back. And they would just throw everything they could against the wall to see what would stick. And it wasn't coherent. It was completely outlandish. You would have have, you know, chairman of committees, making up testimony or rewriting transcripts for the Zelensky, phone call to be able to impeach Donald Trump. They are not doing that this time. Even what Republicans are trying to frame as crazy candidates are still being incredibly disciplined. I think he's a clown. El sayed. But that's a. That is an appealing candidate. He's doing a good job, constantly refocusing their attacks on the issues that voters care about. So going into. Look, I think at this point it's probably, I don't want to say a foregone conclusion, but I do think it's highly likely a lot of these voters, a lot of these, candidates are going to get in and Republicans better just get it through their heads now that this wasn't going to work, didn't work.
The Credibility Problem: Republicans' Broken Promises and the Voters' Hesitation to Trust Them
Now what are we going to do when they're in? How do we oppose them when they're in? And the answer, the correct answer is you have to do what they're doing, which is talking about the issues and just telling people that this is not going to make your life better. We've actually seen this before. It's not novel. They don't have new ideas. Our ideas will make your life better. And that's going to be a tough. It's going to be tough, and it's going to take time to, you know, reconvene or earn the trust back of these voters, because that's really the core of their problem right now. They have a credibility issue with these voters. They said they would do all these things. So when Donald, for instance, when Donald Trump comes out at the midterms and tries to match them, you know, socialism for socialism, well, I'm gonna write you $5,000 checks if you vote for us. We actually did a focus group on the convention because it was an interesting event. Nobody's ever done a midterm convention before. Immediately. The initial response was, one, didn't you promise this to us already and we didn't get it right? And then two, it was, oh, no, you know, elections are a transaction. You're telling us you'll give us that money after we vote for you. How about you give it to us now and we'll consider voting for you again in November so that tell they have a credibility problem. And for whatever reason, they would rather give these other guys a chance than have to deal with someone they're not sure is telling them the truth anymore.
The Shift from Principle to Practicality: Younger Voters Rejecting Labels and Seeking Tangible Solutions
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. Which, you know, which is unfortunately a logical conclusion of a voter if you are wanting a practical outcome instead of potentially a principled one. And that's where, you know, I've seen a lot of conservative pushback, where I, mean, even Josh Hammer, years ago, from Newsweek, wrote that article, you know, principled loserdom where, even, you know, as, as a millennial, you know, like my age, was writing about this problem saying, you know, the practical realities just aren't being met and so what are we doing, you know, voting on our principles instead of. And I don't think he's pushing, you know, for the DSA at all. But that kind of mentality, when it is unmoored in some of these younger voters from the traditional conservative principles polls, then they're okay with saying, you know what, I'm going to give somebody else a chance and not just voting all the way down ticket for Republicans because they've always done that. They're okay actually entertaining, a different vote, which is, which should really concern Republicans. And yet we're hearing the same kind of messaging we did, you know, all the way back in, you know, 2018, 2019. Oh, Democrats are in disarray, you know, and it's like, no, they're actually not. And to your point, they are a lot more disciplined. These DSA candidates have figured out how to appeal to younger voters on, you know, TikTok and social media.
DSA Candidates' Social Media Savvy and the Republican Party's Inability to Connect with Younger Voters
And while it looks a little, you know, screwy to somebody like me, who that doesn't appeal to, it actually does to the younger voters. And meanwhile, you just have, you know, kind of these stiff Republican suits that are out just doing the Fox News parade that none of the younger voters are paying attention to. And so, you know, when you talk about, and this book is so fascinating. Burn it down. this is the book that, you know, all the, all of my listeners, you need to read. burn it down. What the polls are saying young Americans really want. how concerned are you as well that this literally will come to a point? I mean like what we've seen in historical revolutions, I mean, you know, like the French Revolution that was just like, we're done. And here's where, you know, the population is rising up. How concerned are we at this point that there is a true possibility for a new sort of revolution, that really is going to undermine the Constitution. I mean, kind of, you know, in a sense what the, the Thomas Massey's and the Tucker Carlsen's and the Marjorie Taylor Greens are saying where, like, you know, what, we've tried the Trump thing, we're done with that party, we're done with both parties and we want to do something so completely different, that, that may be the future of where the, the MAGA movement is headed. And I'd be very concerned about that. I'm not a fan of, of Tucker's whole positioning.
Rich Baris: Yeah, I mean, I, I very.
Historical Precedents for Societal Devolutions and America's Complacency Regarding Its Own Vulnerability
And again, the, first couple of chapters of the book are trying to get people to understand each other's point of view. But then later on there's this complacency in America. The later chapters, especially from 6 on, really discussed all of those historical. We use various test cases that you were to refer to what you were just talking about, which is like, look, this has happened before. There's actually a very real template, for how societies can devolve like this. And it looks very similar to what we're all staring at right now. So we'll go through several historical, you know, case studies to show people this can happen. Because I think in America, this is a bit unique to America. We have this complacency and we have this almost false sense of security that these things can't happen here. Sure. They happened in France. That was the French. You know, they're just a little bit crazier than us. Or it happened in this case study. And we look at a figure like Franco because actually he's kind of revered by some of these younger voters. He got things and he got things done. and I think what the point of this is is to try to pierce people's biases a little bit. Like, look, America is exceptional, but it's not exempt from the rules of nature and it's not exempt from history. Right. I mean, we are a fantastic, just an incredibly unique country. And we did things, we just bucked history, like, you know, constantly throughout our history. Our own short. But it is a short history, Jenna. It's not like we've been around like Rome for a thousand years. This could go sideways and it can go sideways very quickly.
The Shifting Electorate: Third-Party Potential and the Decline of Traditional Party Loyalties
And looking at the polls, and I think this is why people are. Tucker and others are probably going to see a lot of success in the post Trump era with this. Looking at the polling, we're not one of those polls that ever found huge third party vote shares. Every time there's a presidential election. In 2016, we saw Johnson, right? Gary Johnson had it and he did all right, you know, maybe 3 to 5% he would poll somewhere in that neighborhood, which is high for a third party. Maybe Joe Stein would get two. even in 2020, it dropped again and we could see people just were ready to vote for a two party vote share again. That was it. By 24, we had Kennedy running. Then Kennedy getting with Trump was obviously a pivotal moment in the campaign because it gave Trump another about 4% and made some of these Very difficult battleground states, easier to win. And, if you look at the history of these battleground states, they do throw a lot of their vote share to third parties. Even Florida has done that over the years quite a bit. When Governor DeSantis was first elected, there were a number. I believe there were seven candidates on that ballot at the time. And third parties did win enough to the point where neither party got over 50%, even the winner, ultimately, Governor DeSantis. This is different. What I'm seeing now is different. And I think it reminds me. I'm just going to say it, you know, it reminds me of 1992. Even though I was around that wasn't a pollster. But the vote share levels for third party candidates are very high. If you were to take somebody, we did everybody. We've done Tucker, we've done Joe Kemp, we've done Thomas Massett. we've had fun.
The Terrifying Prospect of a Divided Right and the Betrayal of Core Campaign Promises
We even did JD as an independent against various traditional Republicans in case they were the nominee. And JD Ran as an independent. And I was doing that just to see, you know, how different would that be from some of the other candidates. We're at a point now where J.D. vance, if he ran as an independent, would actually get a higher vote share than every Republican ticket that we tested. Which tells you there is a huge chunk of the right wing coalition that doesn't want to do this anymore. And that's terrifying. It really is. The last time M. I brought up 92, because I think there's something in common there. George Herbert Walker Bush had a major campaign promise. Betrayal, Read my lips. No new taxes. And instead he raised taxes and he started a war. And that war, even was a popular war for the short duration it carried out. This is a campaign, and I hate using the B word, but it is what it is.
The Long Road to Reconciliation: Dealing with Broken Promises and the Threat of Third-Party Candidates
I mean, this is a broken promise. This is a betrayal at a level that, you know, I'm a millennial. we're similar ages. We've never seen this in our adult life before. You know, even Barack Obama, you could say he was an incredible letdown. But this was a central 10 year campaign promise and he broke it. And unfortunately there's just. We're going to have to deal with this and mend these fences before 28, because I do think a third party threat is real. And I. We're going to have to make nice with that side that's upset because if they run someone, sure they're not going to win. But I can see Thomas Massie getting 15% of the vote that's it. That's the ball game. Some of these other candidates, depending on the tickets, Jenna, they can get up to 20%. That is not good. And we can't win like that. We simply can't. There's the numbers aren't there. We can't win like that. And they'll have a seat at the table once that happens. And how long before we iron it out and everybody understands and is happy with their roles together in a coalition? It could take years. And after 1992, it took almost 10 years for George W. Bush, his father, to put the Ross Perot coalition back into the Republican coalition. That's fine. Bill Clinton was president for eight years and America was still strong. We didn't have a great debt.
The Evolving Democratic Party and the Diminished Potential for a Centrist Figurehead
Right. We ended up actually with a peace dividend. We don't have that luxury this time, unfortunately. We just don't. We're over 40 trillion in debt. The economy has structural problems. Times we can't afford to be 10 years in the wilderness while we figure this out.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, well, I mean, the Democrat Party is not the party of, you know, the Clinton era or prior. Barack Obama changed all of that. And so it's not going to be just this. Well, we have the luxury to potentially, you know, run a spoiler like a Ross Pro. See if we can potentially get the, the algorithm to where all of the disaffected voters on both sides will somehow coalesce to one candidate. I think we're too far apart for that, for, you know, anybody to, to get more than that, you know, 15 or 20% like you were saying. but we're not going to end up with somebody like a, Bill Clinton. I mean, and not that I was a huge advocate for his presidency, but comparatively to the Kamala Harris's, you know, even, even Hillary and what she ran on, you know, was wildly more to the left than the, Clinton administration.
RFK Jr. and the Potential for a Wild Card Candidate to Appeal to Disaffected Voters
I mean, you know, he was still, you know, the whole, he wasn't just pro abortion on demand. I mean, you know, still kind of was confined to some of the, conservative tradition, even as a Democrat. so, you know, so where, where would we potentially get the most value if someone ran third party? I mean, I thought potentially that somebody like an RFK junior who had a lot of credibility with the old Democrat Party, but also had some of that crossover with the disaffected Americans, especially those, you know, who don't believe in the institutions, they don't trust the legitimacy of government, especially coming out of Cove you know, all of His Maha movement really struck at a core, ah, population of voters. is there potentially some scenario where we could get sort of this wild card candidate that could draw enough from both parties that it would be at least significant enough to maybe not win in 2028, but at least have that potential threat down the road that could make a third party option viable that at least in a way would appease these voters who are done with both of the parties and the entire establishment.
The Appeal of Independent Candidates and the Challenge of Appeasing Disaffected Voters from Both Sides
Rich Baris: Yeah, I do. And I actually think you brought up one of them. That's the obvious right now because we have, we just did it, we just didn't release it yet. But somebody like Kennedy is drawing from both sides, which is, it's interesting to me because we've seen it with, and forgive me, I'm going to go down in the weeds a little bit here, but we've seen it with some of these other candidates, which shocked me. Even when we tried polling Tucker, it looked like he took roughly even shares from both. But the problem is that huge number of undecideds this early and when we lean the undecideds, meaning we force them to make a decision, you could see that the Democrats who were still, you know, or left leaning voters that didn't pick someone immediately, they all just of course went to the Democratic candidate with somebody like a Tucker and a Massey from, for instance, they're drawing, and especially independents who lean to the right, they're drawing them away from the Republican ticket, which really again does nothing because it's not adding to the conversation, it just ends up in a Republican defeat and then that's it. And Democrats go on to be emboldened. And unfortunately in that scenario, I think you see the DFA get emboldened and I think they think that they'll have one of the free reign and run of the mill to not be a Bill Clinton Democrat. And they'll take it as a false affirmation, but they'll take it as an affirmation nonetheless that people are endorsing their politics, they're endorsing their policies and things will go really badly. But somebody like a Kennedy still does take, especially when we, those leaners that I'm thinking about, he still does pull almost equal shares from them and I think he has bona fides from the right at this point because he done very good work at human services.
Weakening the Parties: Voters' Intentions and the Rise of Independent Identification Among Younger Generations
So, whether or not he can, you know, he will want to do that or he can even still do it when we get to 28, I guess is another story. But right now it is limited. What we hear though. And I think I just want to make this point, what we hear from people. And this scares me a little bit. But it is, what it is, is that they feel that they have not really punished the party, but that they would vote for a third party just to weaken it so that they can do something with it at a later time. And I get that. I understand that argument completely. I actually do think the Ross Pro coalition made the Republican Party better down the road. The problem is what I said before, which is that we don't really have time for those experiments. We just don't. So it's either got to be a candidate like you're talking about who can really be a threat to both sides. And you know, we see a lot, we hear stories about this all the time that, you know, their Americans are increasingly identifying as independent. Even in the article I wrote on rugged politics, I make this point that, especially the younger generation, they don't really identify as either conservative or liberal like prior generations do. The huge chunk call themselves moderate, even though they don't really have moderate views. They're rejecting both labels. So the question will be, can somebody rise at a time when more of these voters become a larger share of the electorate? Because that's when the real opportunity for a game changer will come. That's when it'll be presented. Two years from now is still probably a little too early.
The Generational Divide in Third-Party Voting and the Need for Broader Appeal Beyond Millennials and Gen Z
You're just going to have still too many baby boomers and even older Gen X who will just will not vote third party. All of the third party vote share. I don't want to say all of it because that's not how statistics works. But I'm generalizing because that's what people, people like me do. But it really does come from the millennial and Gen Z cohorts of the electorate. That's where the third party vote share comes from. So until we see somebody who can take from older generations as well, you're better off waiting. Otherwise you're really just going to play the role of spoiler.
Jenna Ellis: Well, Rich Barris, this has been such a fascinating conversation and I think, for the people who kind of want to bury their head in the sand and say, well, you know, Republicans are the party of principle and so, you know, they're just gonna keep winning and we just have to kind of ram this through and say socialism bad and Democrats bad. So, you know, vote down, ticket, whatever, this isn't gonna work.
Waking Up to Reality: The Urgent Need for Republicans to Appeal to Younger Voters' Concerns
I mean, this is a very timely message because, we need to wake up to the realities of what younger voters are looking at. as, you know, the. The younger generations become the largest, voting block and demographic. we're going to have to appeal to them in a, A better way than, I think, the messaging of the current Republican Party. whether that comes from, you know, another outsider, whether that's reform within the party after potentially a really bad midterm. You know, whatever it takes. it's going to be really interesting to see where this all goes from here and after the midterms. But the book is Burn it, what the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want Again, by Rich Barris. And, you really need to read this. And I would encourage you to think about this holistically, not as just, you know, know, a pro or anti Trump thing, pro or anti Republican. I mean, this is ultimately for protecting the future of America and, saving America from the. The leftist, you know, ideology and socialism being just a totally different view of the legitimacy of government, a totally different view of reality. And so this isn't just about whether you have been or are currently, you know, pro Trump or not.
Rich Baris: Not.
Jenna Ellis: he's not going to be on the ballot in 2028.
Confronting Harsh Truths: Protecting America's Future and the Legitimacy of Government
And some of these things that maybe are harsh truths are still truths that we've got to confront. So, Rich, I really appreciate so much the extended conversation, and anything else that you want to say about the book.
Rich Baris: you know, I would just. You really nailed it. Like, doesn't give me great joy to point out a lot of these things, Jenna, but, you know, this is a politic. It's a numbers game. Politics is a game of addition, not subtraction. And we're going to find ourselves sooner than people realize in a very difficult position and increasingly have a more difficult time winning national elections if we don't confront what you just said. And that's the entire point of the book. And, you know, have a little bit of empathy for some of your fellow Americans. Some of what I've heard recently is a little bit shocking to me, but they're going to make you have empathy, is my point. They're going to make you confront reality because. Because they're coming. And we call it the revenge of the Millennials. But wait until Gen Z gets here. It's going to be a brave new world. We have to deal with this now. And, you know, it is about, like you said, this is about the future of the country. And it's not really about a man. It's not really about a movement, and it's about the survival of our way of life.
The Politics of Numbers and Empathy: Facing Reality and Ensuring the Survival of Our Way of Life
And we have to confront it now, before it's too late.
Jenna Ellis: Absolutely.
Rich Baris: Stopwatch on it.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. Well, we'll continue to confront it and, continue to push hard, for all of the, these, these principles and the propositions and, and the reality. So, Rich Bears, really appreciate you joining again. The book is Burn it down from Simon and Schuster, get it wherever books are sold. And as always, for these conversations, if you have a topic or guest you'd love, for us to talk about or hear from, you can always reach me and my team, Jenna, afr.net and I will see you next week on Demand.
Rich Baris: Sat.
Introduction to the Podcast and the Critical Examination of the Republican Party's Future
Foreign.
Jenna Ellis: Welcome to On Demand. This is our AFR exclusive podcast where we get to do a deeper dive into the issues you care about from the guests that you love to hear from. And today's topic, may not be one that is a favorite among m, a lot of our regular listeners, because we're going to do some critiquing and some hard, honest look at where the Republican Party, the MAGA movement and the future of America is. I think that this is a very important and also timely topic because we've got to confront the realities and the political realities of where we're at. And, this came, to me that this piece, a couple of days ago from Real Clear Politics, from Rich Barris, who's a pollster. You may be following him on social media. If you aren't, I would encourage you to do so. because I want to read through this piece. I very rarely take the time to actually read an entire piece on air. But this is just so good with so many pull quotes.
Analyzing Rich Barris's Commentary on Young Voters and the Misconceptions Held by Republicans
And I want you to get, you know, the entire argument before actually bring on Rich Barris and have this, further and extended conversation. I think this is one of the best commentaries, right now on where young voters are at, where, you know, the Republican Party is just saying socialism, bad, and, you know, Republicans are the champions of, you know, traditional American values. So of course you're going to vote for us. but the data actually suggests otherwise. And so this is titled Young Voters Did Not Elect Trump for this. So listen to this commentary by Rich Barris. He says everything Republicans thought they knew about younger voters who backed them less than two years ago is wrong. Conservative pundits and consultants have had an almost bipolar misunderstanding of these now disaffected Americans. When President Donald Trump made his historical, historic political comeback in 2024, a slew of right wing commentators repeated each other's claims that the zoomers were just, quote, unquote, more conservative than previous cohorts. That was news to us, given Big Data poll was met with fierce skepticism leading up to that election, explicitly because we led the industry in identifying trends indicating the President was making significant gains with younger non white voters.
The Shifting Sands of Young Voter Allegiance: From Trump's Support to Disillusionment
Some of these very same consultants argued that our trends showed little more than a polling mirage, the result of higher sampling errors for subgroups. Their slowness in coming to the realization that these trends were in fact very real has only been rivaled by more recent attempts to reconcile that rightward shift in 2024 with the events that have transpired since now, following the rise of the dsa, the Democratic Socialists of America, and declining support for Republicans, these voters, many of those same commentators are dismissing the pleas of Gen Z as the grievances of lazy socialists. Those dismissals are typically prefaced by a lecture on how to pull yourself up by the bootstraps, quit looking for handouts, learn how to cook at home, and stop buying $20 burritos. We can revisit the wisdom of that message at a later time. For now, let's just start out by pointing out that that neither of those two contradictory claims is true, nor does either of them sufficiently explain why these voters are abandoning the President and his party's candidates less than two years after supporting them.
Examining the Coalition Fracture: Declining Approval Ratings Among Young Voters and the Search for Answers
To hear them tell it, there's no coalition fracture in this story at all. But that too, is false. During the years in between President Trump's first and second non consecutive terms to include the relevant months leading up to the election in 2024, Big Data Poll asked voters about his retrospective approval rating. This gives us a, more apples to apples juxtaposition for the key demographic groups as opposed to the more commonly cited apples to oranges exercises that compare prior vote share to current approval ratings. The accuracy of that poll regarding the President's margin of victory should be enough to demonstrate that approval ratings are not always the best comparison to make to make to vote share. That being said, the President's job approval has declined since November 2024among all demographic groups shown here, and there's a link to that. Okay, so. However, the age group that experienced the largest net negative swing was now the 18 to 29 cohort. Zoomers, once almost identical to the national overall, have swung negative 32.9% in approval, against the president since the election. Millennial overlap in the 30 to 44 age bucket improved slightly in September at minus 27.1 after showing a net negative 33.5% swing the prior month. That this coalition fracture has happened and is continuing to happen is no longer up for debate. The only relevant questions for the President and Republicans to ask and answer are as follows. 1. What's driving these younger voters to abandon Republican candidates they supported on a limited basis in 2024 because of their support for President Trump? Second, what did they expect?
Understanding the 'America First' Appeal to Younger Voters and the Misinterpretation by Traditional Republicans
Or what did they want? And perhaps more importantly, why do they want it? As is often the case with political punditry, people are over complicating the answers to these questions. That's in large part because so few truly understood why various Demographics supported America first in 2024, including younger voters. Donald Trump was not reelected after dozens of felony indictments because he enjoyed improved margins among more conservative baby boomers and voters in the silent generation. The president was reelected fairly easily in a historically moderate electorate because of a significant right wing shift among voters below the age of 65 to include millennials and Gen Z. The Pew Research Voter Validated Post Election survey showed voters 65 years or older who overlap. These dwindling cohorts supported the president by a slightly smaller margin in 2024 than in 2023 points versus four points. Pew's findings were very much in line with our final national poll conducted from October 30 to November 3, 2024. Roughly 2 in 10, or 22.3% of voters aged 18 to 29 identified as Conservative, nearly identical to the share that identified as liberal 23 point percent. Only 29, 26.7 of voters ages 30 to 44 identified as conservative, suggesting future electorates could very well be even more moderate. Millennials born in the 1980s represented the largest group of defectors from 2020 to 2024, while turnout patterns largely drove swings among those born in the 1900s and or the 1990s. Let's not date ourselves too far the 1990s and 2000s. These younger Americans did not vote for Donald Trump to go along, to get along, or to return to the same brand of Republican politics they associate with starting foolish wars and destroying the economy, just as many of them were trying to get started in life. To them, that was the Republican Party, made unalive by Bushism before President Trump came along and raised it from the dead like Jesus raised Nazareth raised Lazarus from the tomb.
Young Voters' Radical Vision: Rejecting Institutions and Seeking Systemic Change Through Donald Trump
They care nothing for ideological litmus tests and loyalty to their dogmas, nor do they value leaders who take principled losing stances that never improve their lives. These young Americans saw Donald Trump and J.D. vance as their last chance to correct the listing of a sinking ship, to right the wrongs done by a system that failed them repeatedly. They called themselves moderate only because they reject labels. But make no mistake, there is little moderate about the view of these younger generations. They are radical, reactionary and, dare I say, revolutionary. They believe institutions revered by both sides are hollow and serve only to perpetuate a system that is rigged by an old order that feeds itself first and calls it governance. While they and their fellow citizens get shafted, they elected President Trump and Vice President Vance to burn it down. They did not get the retribution they were promised, and Republicans were suddenly baffled because these voters had the audacity to expect what they were promised. Put plainly, President Trump and right wing coalition candidates who rode his coattails were elected in 2024 by a younger, more diverse coalition than previous Republican coalitions. Yet the Republican majorities governed as if they were elected by a shrinking majority of boomers glued to Fox News. As a result, the Republican coalition is now shrinking, along with a share of voters who identify with a very brand that made it being a Republican cool again. Since 2024, the percentage of voters who identify as America first or MAGA has declined. Most significantly for a younger and non white voter. Older white voters are the only demographic to report increased identification.
Republican Governance Blunders and the Shifting Demographics: A Catastrophic Combination for the Party
That's remarkable, given that they are precisely the voters who did not identify with the movement in 2024. Older white voters do not want to upend a system that has been designed to benefit them at the peak of their golden years. But this rug pull has wreaked havoc on the President's approval rating among voters they absolutely need to win elections. This combination of, ignorance of their own coalition and the regression back to the priorities of the pre Trump GOP has proven catastrophic. It put the viability of the Republican Party in doubt and handed socialists a golden opportunity. The chart simply tracks the President's second term approval rating by key events, with events in blue showing potential to improve his ratings and events in red proving to have had a negative impact. And that chart is linked in this article. We can clearly see the President's numbers, took a wrong turn when the administration pivoted away from what was a popular domestic agenda to being consumed by foreign policy and war. The generic ballot tracker provides further confirmation. Again, a hyperlink in the article. Republicans lost their lead for the US House almost immediately after after Operation Midnight Hammer. Here's the unfiltered reality Republicans now need to face. It was always either MAGA or Mamdani. Neither party has the voting coalition in the electoral chamber they would need to successfully turn back the clock. The oldest boomers, boomer one turned 80 in 2026.
The Demographic Shift: Millennials and Gen Z Replacing Older Voters and the Republican Challenge
Over the next few cycles, we will begin to see them rapidly replaced by younger voting cohorts. In 2017, millennials became the largest cohort in the voting eligible population. While Boomer two are a more reliable voting bloc than either Gen Z or Millennials, they are also a more Democratic friendly bloc than their older Vietnam War serving counterparts. So Jones Boomers or Boomers too, filled the ranks of the professional managerial class who for more than four decades served the political order young Americans wanted Trump to. As they became a larger share of voters 65 and older. The senior vote will continue to get more competitive without those less reliable, now disaffected younger voters who helped propel them to victory in 2024. Republicans will find it increasingly difficult to win national elections. It's really that simple. If Republicans do not re embrace the platform and the agenda that put voters first, instead of returning to the Grand Old Party that prioritizes perks for special interests and wars for foreign lobbies, younger voters will find another instrument of change. They will find someone else to be their champion.
Republicans' Doomed Conservatism and the Need to Confront Reality: A Discussion with Rich Barris
Republicans are trying to conserve an order that is already doomed. With or without them, these younger Americans are going to burn it down. If Republicans insist on remaining on the wrong side of this thing, they'll burn down what remains of Trump's coalition down right along with it. All right, so Rich Barris, this article in Real Clear Politics, so interesting, so fascinating. I've heard so many conservative, commentators say that this was the best commentary so far that they have seen on the midterms. And one of the most fascinating poll quotes that I took from this was this, they, the young voters elected President Trump and Vice President Vance to burn it down. They did not get the retribution they were promised. And Republicans were suddenly baffled because these voters had the audacity to expect what they promised. I mean, I think that's a fair commentary.
Rich Baris: First of all, thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. And I, I, I find myself a little bit stunned, Jenna, that the people are struggling to have, to grasp why it is that they're having trouble with the strugg voters now. And I think we can trace some of this problem to the, to the beginning when Republicans, and of course the president did so much better with younger voters and younger non white voters, which is also very key. I think they just didn't understand why these voters voted for them in the first place, which is incredible for a presidential campaign especially, but it's just incredible. You know, normally when parties lose, they'll do an autopsy.
The Republican Party's Failure to Understand Its Coalition and the Consequences of Governing for the Wrong Demographic
the Republican Party just move forward and you don't do an autopsy when you win, of course, but you should have some grasp of the, of the voters in your coalition, what they want, and especially if you build one like President Trump did, where you can have these different demographics that have very different interests than other demographics in your coalition. And Republicans are so used to winning off of an older, certainly whiter vote that they just didn't see it and they move forward. They governed for that one group and they left these other voters hanging out there, you know, with all of these promises. And the most astonishing thing about it is this campaign and this message wasn't really for the traditional Republican voting bloc. It wasn't. And that's why he won. And they didn't know that, didn't understand it. It's a little bit, it's kind of, it's like irony is not even the right word.
Jenna Ellis: yeah. And I mean, I have to believe that they did know that and that they understand it, but just for some reason, and that's the sticking point for me, some reason there wasn't follow through.
The Disconnect Between Promises and Actions: Why Trump's Coalition Felt Betrayed and the Need for Executive Action
And I get that, you know, that President Trump m. Doesn't control the Senate. I mean, you know, Leader Thune is frustrating. You know, we get all of that. And so maybe the SAVE act isn't going to be pushed through, but for the province of just the executive. I mean, why aren't we seeing, as you mentioned in this piece, why aren't we seeing more arrests and you know, the kind of these parades of firings from the FBI? I mean, we should be seeing, you know, at least 10 people with like, yeah, like a webcam, you know, right on the building of the, the FBI and saying, you know, look at the, these people that we fired, we're parading them out, we're draining the swamp. We're, doing all of the things, that, you know, that Doge promised. And at least where there is the power of the executive, if Trump was at least following through on the things he does have power and control over, then we could rightly say, okay, it's just the establishment Republicans then. And so we want to vote for everybody that Trump is endorsing because we want to shape up the Congress as well. I mean, that to me would have been the logical progression after 2024.
Distinguishing Between Clueless Politicians and Strategic Miscalculations in the Trump Administration
Rich Baris: Yeah. And I think you made a good. I think you drew a good distinction. And the correct one, I think you're right, which is that, look, I mean, anyone who knows any of us, who know some of the Republicans in Congress, whether it's the Senate or the House, they are clueless. A lot of them just are completely. But the President and his team, they're not. They did know, at least a good deal of this. And I hate to say it, but I think that the answer to our question is just that this administration is different than the first. And there have been a lot of powerful lobbies that know a lot of people. And when, when it became time to choose. I mean, I'm really, I wish I had a better answer than this, but I really do believe this. When it became time to choose, what do we do with Big Pharma? What do we do with Fauci? What do we do with the FBI? There were people who just wanted one go along to get along, and then two others that just had different interests.
The Ultimate Rug Pull: Voters Expected Retribution, But Received Lobbyist-Influenced Inaction
Janet. Like, I'm not going to go after, Pfizer for lying through warp speed. I'm not going to do this because some of some people have connections to various lobbies. And that's really unfortunate because that's the ultimate rug pull, because these voters thought they were getting more of Donald. And again, I think this is important to note real quick in going into 24, and it's probably a year and a half of polling before the election that Donald Trump and our polling was always winning. This was never really a close election. It wasn't even a hard election to poll. Before they pulled the switcheroo with Biden, he was drumming him. And, yeah, Harris got a little bit of a bump for a little while after they did that. But this was really Donald Trump's election to lose.
Pollster's Perspective: Why Voters Felt Lied to and Desired a Different Trump Than the One They Received
And as a pollster, and I still interview people myself, which a lot of pollsters don't do, of course, you can't do it with everybody, but you do try to sit down and speak to people that you think are key and communicate with American voters. And it was a very simple AP test. They felt that the country was lied to. Joe Biden was senile. All of the stuff with the Russia hoax was not real. Donald Trump was doing a good job, especially on the economy. We hadn't gotten into any new wars, and they wanted that Trump back. And it was so key to give them that Trump back. And they didn't get that guy. Be honest. They got something very different, this administration and that. And it took them by surprise. It's, you know, it's. Speaking of a switcheroo, I mean, we pulled a switcheroo on them.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
Trump 2.0 vs. Trump 1.0: A Surprising Shift and the Constitutional Boundaries of Executive Power
I mean, you know, I worked for Trump, during his first admin, and I was surprised at how different Trump 2.0 is. I mean, there are some good things, I think. You know, there's not a lot of the kind of, you know, clownishness, frankly, that, you know, was in kind of the first admin. there are a few good things we can point to, but overall, you know, my take on it, from watching the first admin from the inside and then seeing what was promised in the second, I was actually concerned that the retribution would go too hard and too far outside the margins of what the executive can actually constitutionally do. I mean, like, my whole caution was, you know, hey, remember that you do have constitutional boundaries. And, I mean, that. That was what I thought we were going to have to rein in. especially because in his first administration, it seemed like he was distracted by, you know, the Russia collusion hoax and then the first impeachment, and then, you know, the whole Covid disaster. And it was like he was trying to focus on the economy and draining the swamp and doing all of the things that he promised. And he just got heavily waylaid by all of these, these, Democratic, you know, guns that they were throwing at him, that we thought that if he got a second chance, he would come in knowing a lot more, saying, okay, I'm not going to be blindsided as the outsider to this crazy machine that is Washington.
Disappointment in Trump's Second Term: The Fighter's Ebb and the Gatekeeping of Washington D.C.
He'd know where all the levers are that he can pull and actually get things done. And I think that overall, we can fairly say we've been a little disappointed in it. And I think that for the vast majority of these voters that you're talking about, they're disappointed as well. And I just. I really don't know what to attribute that to, because Trump is a fighter. And it would seem to me that, you know, this kind of 2.0 that we're getting is. It doesn't line up with what we've historically seen from, you know, the champion, the guy who wants to be the man in the ring.
Rich Baris: Yeah. And for the first three to five months, it was going well, because I think, you know, you're right. I mean, he just. He was an outsider, and he. When the first time around, he really didn't know, and a lot of people around him didn't know how the government works, how to take control of it as best you can anyway, than any executive can take control of this giant bureaucracy at this point. and it looked like in the beginning that some of what looked to be gatekeeping was really just, you know, what I learned my lesson. Experience. And we're going to keep the leaks to a minimum.
The First Five Months of Trump's Second Term: Ecstatic Voters and the Devolving Gatekeeping Problem
We're not going to let the administrative state run circles around us. after about five months or so, that just seemed to devolve into gatekeeping for different reasons. but. But if you look back in those first three to five months, you'll see the voters that writing about in this column, they were ecstatic. They loved it. They loved Doge. I mean, his approval during the height of the Doge, era. Let's call it, his approval rating about three months in with voters who were under 40 years old was still above 60%. And consider that now with where he is 18 to 29, he was still at 58%. I'm looking at it right now just as a reference point. and now that has collapsed into 20s and 30s, and, it's an enormous swing. And at this point, we're obviously getting very close into the midterms. These voters, they didn't care. And I think this is crucial. You know, you and I care about those constitutional boundaries that you were talking about.
Young Voters' Disregard for Institutions and Their Desire for Action Over Constitutional Reverence
And one of the polls that jump out at me that we ran, we did for the, you know, a lot of, A lot of the stuff that's in the book, we, we didn't talk about publicly outside of just maybe I'm in an interview and I'll say it, but we didn't report it and put it out on the website. But when the judge, for instance, ordered Trump to turn the plane around, these younger voters, they wanted what they wanted done. And their response to that was, he's the president. Don't turn that plane around. Don't listen to the judge. Just keep going. So Republicans are going to have to come to grips really soon with the fact that, you know, these younger generations, for whatever reason, I think we can talk about what reason. They're not at all, they have no reverence for these institutions that people talk about and care about. It's just. They just don't.
The Generational Divide: Young Voters' Urgency vs. Baby Boomers' Stability and Unmet Basic Needs
They're a different breed. They want action because they feel that we're in such a dire situation, and really, they're in such a dire situation, you know, the baby boomers. And it's no, you know, it's no attack on any generation. It's just a fact. You know, they're, they're getting older in age, and so their interest in, like, shaking up those institutions and really, you know, burning it down, burning the system down and, you know, revamping, starting, not from scratch, but obviously, from a place where they feel they have the same opportunity that prior generations have. That's not a very enticing proposition for people who are in the twilight of their life or in their golden years. They don't want the boat rock, Jenna. They don't want institutions shaken up. So we have these two groups who voted for the Republican coalition in 24 just diametrically opposed to what they want. And that's unfortunate because we have, we need to almost go through an education moment for some of these, younger voters and they're so angry at this point we would never be able to do it. But we need to explain or re explain to certain Americans why these institutions are important. And right now we'll never be able to do that because they feel their basic needs are not being met. And when you, when your basic needs, it's basic Abraham Maslow and you're, you know, you're low rung, your basic needs aren't being met. You care nothing about self actualization or anything theoretical. You're just trying to meet those needs.
The 'Burn It Down' Mentality: Young Americans' Desire for a System Reset and Institutional Failure
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, I mean this is what we've seen in historic, you know, world revolutions. And you know we've seen when societies or governments or other institutions fail, it's because you know, people feel that their basic needs aren't being met. And the book by the way is Burn it down, by Rich Barris. And it, you can get that wherever books are sold from Simon and Schuster, but Burn it down. What the polls say young Americans really want. And I've seen this from a lot of the young political commentators as well and then even some of the, you know, the more in my generation of millennial, conservatives basically saying, you know, our institutions have failed and there's no rescuing them. We need to just start over completely basically. And there is a real problem I think, just not only practically but also philosophically with that and constitutionally as well. But you know, when you have this divide now between what Trump is actually doing versus what the voters believe they elected him to do, I don't think that Trump is oblivious to this, but do you think that part of this potentially is securing his place within the Republican Party and kind of the MAGA Inc. movement that I see as basically the 2028 and beyond Trump Org, because he's never going to go back to, you know, what he used to be and being embraced by the liberal left and all of this, I mean that ship has sailed a long time ago. So you know, for his future it's almost like he's becoming part of the swamp because he hasn't been able to join it to secure his place and ah, after he doesn't have another election left.
Trump's Strategic Calculation: Securing His Place Within MAGA Inc. and the Loss of His Outsider Appeal
Rich Baris: Yeah, I do think that's, I do think that's part of the calculation and has been from the beginning. And you know that first time he goes in and he is that outsider and he is that anti establishment and he meets a lot of resistance from it. And then by the way, we did have a four year in between Period, where he was persecuted. And that's got to have some kind of an effect on someone's psyche. I mean, you could be an extremely strong leader, an extremely strong figure. And it's still going to bother you if you walk up and find that, you know, the doors of Trump Tower chained, and you have to think, you know what? I gotta find my place in this thing. So I think that is absolutely correct. And I don't want to jump in the man's head or try to, but you can almost not do that. Right. You have to. I just think that it was a miscalculation because, unfortunately, his strength always came from him not being a part of that establishment. He was that outsider role, that underdog role is what gave him that people's champion role. And when you strip that from him, you take away what's so appealing from so many people about Donald Trump. And I just.
The Retreat to Principles: A Shrinking Hardcore Base and the Consequences of Embracing the Establishment
I don't know how nobody could have seen that. Right. I get it. And you're out after two terms, and. And you wanna do what other presidents do. Right. They go on to build their libraries, and they have their role as the elder statesman in the party, but Trump's never been the Republican Barack Obama. And Barack Obama's always going to be somebody who then later was revered and then became part of, if not the leader of that establishment. they were never gonna accept Trump as that. And I think he made an error here. I think he made a huge error because his real chain mail, his real suit of armor has always been his pop with the Republican voter. And even that now is in question. And I know a lot of people, obviously still out there support Donald Trump, and they don't want to hear this, but it is truth. I mean, it's becoming now a shrinking share, which we talk about, I talk about in the op ed, as a result of this. They're going through this purification through subtraction. I don't want to say evolution. It's not because evolution typically means going forward. It's more like a regression. They're going backward, and it's like they're closing the ranks and the Big Ten is gone. And now. Now it's just, okay, we're a dwindling number of supporters. Yes, we're the most hardcore of those supporters. But, Jenna, they're not enough. I mean, that's what it comes down to. They're not enough.
The Miscalculation of Endorsing Establishment Incumbents and Trump's Shift from Outsider to Insider
They're not even enough to protect him later in life. If Democrats attempt to do what they did between 2021 and 2024, you need the people on your side, to be able to beat back that kind of resistance. And if you become part of the establishment, you lose it.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I completely agree with you that it was a miscalculation. And Trump's strength has always been that he's the outsider and he's the one who's warring against, you know, the deep state and almost the Republicans and Democrats together, you know, and when he goes out and endorses, you know, the, the establishment incumbents, like previously, Lindsey Graham, before, his untimely passing it, but then his, his sister, you know, who. Everybody's going, why are you doing this? And, you know, we could have a host of other names that he has endorsed that everybody's saying, but these are the guys that we want out of Congress. You know, what are you doing? It seems that, you know, Trump, initially, in 2015, he came in and actually ran for president because he genuinely cared about correcting a lot of the wrongs that had been perpetuated by both parties. But even the establishment Republicans, I mean, he didn't come in, as you know, I may, I'm, a part of the Republican team. He totally was an outsider. He was willing to speak truth to power on both sides. But then he came in and almost seemed like he wanted to join that team where if he had come in even in a second term and said, okay, I'm going to destroy as much of this as possible.
The Power of Resistance: How Trump Could Have Become a Voice for Change and the Demographic Shift in Electorates
I'm not going to yield to, you know, anything that the Senate wants. I'm just going to go, you know, full steam ahead. Then after he leaves office, he would have become this voice of the resistance that I think more people would have followed and actually would have solidified an even better position than being, you know, kind of this, you know, a marriage, I mean, nobody listens to Bush anymore. Nobody cares. Right. You know, he would have actually been more relevant in that posture than trying to be sort of the Chancellor of, you know, GOP Inc.
Rich Baris: I could not agree more. And as just putting my pollster hat on. As a pollster and an election analyst, I look at who is coming into this electorate and who, you know, for lack of better terms, being phased out. I mean, that's life. I'm not trying to, you know, sound, macabre or anything. It's just that, you know, coalition change because time moves on and people die. And these newer generations that are going to start replacing older voters at, at rates we just haven't seen, because baby boomers, they've Been the center of the universe for four years. The silent gen is already, we're talking low single digits in the electorate. Millennials Already, as of 2017, they're the largest share of the voting eligible population.
The Millennial Electorate's Potential and Trump's Missed Opportunity by Aligning with Yesterday's Party
They just don't vote. And millennials, you should do something about that, because you could make an incredible amount of positive change if you would just vote. If you would vote at comparable rates like older voters, you could do the equivalent of political damage, to the system. but because they're not, people haven't been taking them as seriously. But for me, that's all I do. And I look forward and I think, okay, what is the electorate going to look like in five years? Right. Which is a point in time when we're talking about right now where Trump would be as he exits the White House and he would be the elder seat statesman of the movement. It would have strengthened him, Jenna. He would have strengthened him. He would have had more voters and more people coming into the electorate. Gen Z, two to one over, over, over baby boomers every year. So his. His support and his legend would have grown. And instead, he took the side of yesterday.
The Doomed Future of Yesterday's Republican Party and Trump's Lost Chance for Long-Term Movement Success
I don't know how else to put it. He took the side of the Republican Party of yesterday that even am. If America first or the more insurgent wing of the party goes on to lose a couple cycles of primaries in a row, that side of yesterday is still doomed because ultimately, they don't have a constituency, they don't have a coalition to build in the future. And if you were really thinking about this in the long term, if you were Trump, you would have said, you know what, it's going to be a rocky few years, but four years from now, six years from now, things are going to go well for me, they're going to be going well for the family, and they're going to be going well for the movement. And no, I guess nobody told him that. I. I'm not sure anybody even thinks like that over there, but that's why it is. It's a. It was a miscalculation, unfortunately for him.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And, you know, one of the things that I respected the most about him when I worked for him was he just, at least in that, in that time period, you know, and I'm thinking back, like, you know, late 2018, 2019, he was ready to fight and just didn't care. I mean, it was almost like, okay, we got to remind you of the margins of the Constitution, because he would want to get things done. And then, you Know, some of his lawyers were like, well, we can't do that. And he's like, well, I don't care. Get it done. You know, and that was the kind of attitude, though, that.
The Search for a Champion: Evaluating Potential Leaders for the 'Burn It Down' Voters
That people wanted to see because we were tired of, you know, the lame Republicans that just, you know, wanted to go along, to get along and didn't really do much and, you know, kind of what we're experiencing right now. So, you know, with. With all of this said Rich, who then becomes the champion of these voters. And, you know, we look at a figure like J.D. vance, where I think there's still this perception that, okay, maybe he's the one because he's younger and he's, you know, kind of got that grit. maybe he's the one to get this done. we look at, you know, the Rubio type of figure or even, you know, the Ron DeSantis, where, you know, I love Governor DeSantis. I mean, I moved to Florida because of him. I was very disappointed, like so many other people, in how, you know, he ran his presidential campaign. I, think hiring all of the Ted Cruz, you know, former losers to Trump, was a huge miscalculation. I think he has the potential to be that kind of great president because he just doesn't care about the media. He doesn't care about being liked. He just cares about wanting to get things done. I don't know, though, that he'll have the same gravitas that he did in 2024, which, you know, maybe looking back, it wasn't a great idea to run against Trump for, you know, all of the reasons that ultimately became evident. But, with all of this, I don't think the sentiment from these voters of burn it down is going away anytime soon.
DeSantis's Potential and Vance's Challenge: Navigating the Political Landscape and the Desire for Change
So who do they select at this juncture to be their next champion?
Rich Baris: Well, this is my concern because, you know, thinking about Governor DeSantis, it's interesting. I've been. Because I have been watching him very closely, and he does seem to get the entire thesis of the book. It's like, I can see the actions he's making. I see the statements he makes publicly, the tweets he fires off, and I can tell that he gets it. He does. And he's even trying to, if not give them a voice, maybe even trying to position himself. But I do agree with everything you said about whether or not that's possible. It is potential. It could potentially be the case that things. And I hate to tell people this, but things are so bad at the end of this term, that he does have an opportunity again to say, you know what I've learned. Let's try this again. because, look, this is J.D. vance's problem. And, look, I personally love the Vice President. I think his heart is in the right place. He's a millennial, and his story, is very. It's unique. So he's this Midwest millennial who grew up in the environment.
J.D. Vance's Unique Position and the Jury Still Out on His Future Political Impact
that was the product of all of these problems that these people are talking about. So he's unique in that. In that he's got that lived experience, which is why he communicates so well about it and to people. I worry, however, that, you know, he's. He's always going to be Trump's number two. And I talk to people about this all the time. They're mad he didn't do more to start the war. They're mad he didn't. And that's not fair. You know, working in government, that's just not. That's not a fair criticism. But sometimes Americans are unfair, and it's a. You just get a bad. You just get a bad rap. So, I mean, we'll see. I think the jury is still out on that. as far as Rubio, I think he's probably. He's just too hawkish on foreign policy, and he's just got a different, you know, he's from a. He's cut from a different cloth. So I think we're.
The Danger of Left-Wing Populism and the Rise of the DSA as a Potential Alternative for Disenfranchised Voters
This is why I'm concerned, and this is why I wrote the book, hoping that at this point we could still have time to course correct and kind of save this thing. Because my big concern is that they won't. You know, they. First, the, instincts of a lot of these young, younger voters was not to go vote for a socialist. It was to give the ball to the populist right and see if they'll run it down the field. And because they didn't. My real concern and fear, honestly, I am a father, I have three kids, is that they're going to pick these socialists, and not because they are socialists, but out of just desperation. And you and I both know that this is always the false promise. Left wing populism is a false promise, and it always devolves into some crazy, often violent form of Marxism. And people like RJ Rommel write entire books about it and give it a name. Democide. Right. I mean, this gets way out of hand and it's very dangerous. But they don't know that. And unfortunately, all they know is that El Sayed is speaking about the issues they care about, and others. I mean, the rise of the DSA is a real thing. I think it's almost certainly going to defeat the Democratic establishment. The only question is whether or not, like, when it does, how establishment will it become like we're seeing with MAGA now? Then will it do what MAGA did and turn into what it defeated, or will it stay more true to itself? Because if it does, we're in a lot of trouble, Jenna.
The Unfortunate Forecast: The Rise of the DSA and the Potential for a New Political Landscape
I mean, that's, that's just, you know, the unfortunate forecast. We need other people to step up, come from, you know, come from a different area or, if this thing can be salvaged. I do think the vice president is probably still is at this moment, the strongest one we poll. But, you know, sometimes the sins of one administration take its toll on the number two. And that's why often vice presidents don't make great candidates for president. Joe Biden did it, but he did it all those years later. Right. And he had a bit of a comeback moment. but I don't want to doom too much on people here because, look, Barack Obama came out of nowhere. He came out of left field. Democrats weren't even thinking about him. They were set to nominate Hillary. And he rose up seemingly out of nowhere and was one of the most incredible candidates. Whether you agree with his government or not, he was an incredible candidate. That certainly can happen now.
The Ideal Leader and Trump's Impact on Making Politics About Popularity and Loyalty
There are always those dark horses. But as of right now, what we see is that there's just some people of the choices they've made in the past are going to make it hard in the future for them to move forward.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, yeah. And I agree, with that analysis as well. And you know, in, in my view, in a perfect world, as far as my vote is concerned, I would love to see Governor DeSantis, you know, get into the White House. I think he would be the best leader because as you rightly said, you know, he gets this. And, and I think what he's done in Florida, if we can do that on a federal level, that that's exactly what all of the voters across the population actually want. And it's really frustrating when, you know, the personalities, the campaigns, all of that kind of get in the way. and Trump certainly hasn't helped that to a large extent. I mean, he's made this more about popularity and loyalty than even politics, has been for a long time.
The Republican Misunderstanding of Young Voters and the Appeal of DSA Candidates' Rhetoric
I mean, I think he's just reinforced that and maybe concentrated that inside of, you know, the MAGA voter, but you mentioned a really important point, Rich, that, you know, these voters are potentially going to the DSA candidates, not because they're actually socialists, but because they feel like there's just no other option. And, well, let's give this a chance because, you know, at least the rhetoric and the campaigns are what I want to hear. the Republicans really don't seem to get that. I mean, they, they think that somehow, you know, capitalism and taxation is theft and, you know, some of these kind of, you know, phrases that, like, true, but maybe that worked 10, 20 years ago, is going to work on this younger generation. And they really, I think, don't get that the younger generation of voters are actually, genuinely considering this and that they have to do more. the Republicans have to do more than just, well, socialism is evil and blah, blah, blah. How dare evil you. that's not going to work. And, and how concerned are you looking at the polls right now that some of these candidates actually are going to get elected and potentially, you know, change the environment for potentially, you know, decades to come?
Rich Baris: that's my primary concern right now.
Republicans' Failure to Connect with Voters' Needs and the Evolving Political Landscape
And you're right, Republicans don't get it. I mean, this has been one of my great failures over the last year, year and a half. I try to sit down and talk to people that, you know, look, hurling this term at people, just doesn't scare them as much as the idea that they may not be able to make their rent or their mortgage payment this month or be able to put groceries in the refrigerator. And just recently going up and talking to some people about what their midterm, what the pivoting into Labor Day, what their message would be this fall, that. That was it. Well, we're going to make this a referendum on the parties and we're going to use, we're going to scare everybody with socialism. And I tried to explain, well, which one is more scary, you know, the prospect of somebody who's talking about the issues you care about getting into office or not being able to get back to school clothes for your kids. I mean, this is crazy. It's just not that way anymore. And by the way, fascism is a much more scary term. And that still didn't work on Donald Trump when Democrats tried to use it, looking at just somebody like Mamdani, for instance, in NewSong York City, there were about, of the people who voted in that election, about a quarter of them, approved of the jobs that Donald Trump was doing as president. It's obviously a liberal area, but Trump still did very well, in the five boroughs, in 24 for a Republican, one in five, about of those voters actually voted for Mamdani. And we chased a bunch of them down. And Janet, that's all this came down to. It just throwing terms Islamist, socialist. All that just went in one ear and out the other. All they heard was, he's going to help me make my rent, he's going to help me get groceries under control, he's going to help me do this. You know, I mean, he spoke about the issues that they cared about at the time. And Republicans are trying to divert people's attention away from those issues instead of speaking to them. And just to go Back to Governor DeSantis real quick, I just want to point out, because I think he deserves credit for this.
DeSantis's Early Recognition of Voter Needs and the Need for Republicans to Adapt to a New Political Reality
This was even as far back as the NewSong York, you know, the election for the mayoral election in NewSong York City. Even back then, Governor DeSantis was saying things publicly like, we can't just do this. We have to meet people's needs. We have to make people's lives better. They will change, they will turn. And for, all of the criticisms, people would respond, well, that's not a lot of people. In the world of political coalition building, one in five is the equivalent of the tectonic plate shifting beneath your feet. I mean, it's a huge deal, it's a huge shift. It's how Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016. so Republicans are going to have to get this through their head. It's just a different world. It's not going to work. Because when these guys get into office, and I do think, unfortunately, we're going to see a bunch of them get into office in the fall. When they get in, their decision is going to be, how much do they want to challenge the Democratic establishment. I've been impressed with how disciplined they have been. Even though they really have very little political experience and they have very little infrastructure, they have been able to kind of turn down the crazy. Jenna. Right? I mean, you remember the first administration. It was Democrats were out of control.
The Discipline of DSA Candidates and the Republican Failure to Grasp the Shifting Political Tides
Their number one enemy was really was themselves. They were beating themselves, and Trump was fighting back. And they would just throw everything they could against the wall to see what would stick. And it wasn't coherent. It was completely outlandish. You would have have, you know, chairman of committees, making up testimony or rewriting transcripts for the Zelensky, phone call to be able to impeach Donald Trump. They are not doing that this time. Even what Republicans are trying to frame as crazy candidates are still being incredibly disciplined. I think he's a clown. El sayed. But that's a. That is an appealing candidate. He's doing a good job, constantly refocusing their attacks on the issues that voters care about. So going into. Look, I think at this point it's probably, I don't want to say a foregone conclusion, but I do think it's highly likely a lot of these voters, a lot of these, candidates are going to get in and Republicans better just get it through their heads now that this wasn't going to work, didn't work.
The Credibility Problem: Republicans' Broken Promises and the Voters' Hesitation to Trust Them
Now what are we going to do when they're in? How do we oppose them when they're in? And the answer, the correct answer is you have to do what they're doing, which is talking about the issues and just telling people that this is not going to make your life better. We've actually seen this before. It's not novel. They don't have new ideas. Our ideas will make your life better. And that's going to be a tough. It's going to be tough, and it's going to take time to, you know, reconvene or earn the trust back of these voters, because that's really the core of their problem right now. They have a credibility issue with these voters. They said they would do all these things. So when Donald, for instance, when Donald Trump comes out at the midterms and tries to match them, you know, socialism for socialism, well, I'm gonna write you $5,000 checks if you vote for us. We actually did a focus group on the convention because it was an interesting event. Nobody's ever done a midterm convention before. Immediately. The initial response was, one, didn't you promise this to us already and we didn't get it right? And then two, it was, oh, no, you know, elections are a transaction. You're telling us you'll give us that money after we vote for you. How about you give it to us now and we'll consider voting for you again in November so that tell they have a credibility problem. And for whatever reason, they would rather give these other guys a chance than have to deal with someone they're not sure is telling them the truth anymore.
The Shift from Principle to Practicality: Younger Voters Rejecting Labels and Seeking Tangible Solutions
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. Which, you know, which is unfortunately a logical conclusion of a voter if you are wanting a practical outcome instead of potentially a principled one. And that's where, you know, I've seen a lot of conservative pushback, where I, mean, even Josh Hammer, years ago, from Newsweek, wrote that article, you know, principled loserdom where, even, you know, as, as a millennial, you know, like my age, was writing about this problem saying, you know, the practical realities just aren't being met and so what are we doing, you know, voting on our principles instead of. And I don't think he's pushing, you know, for the DSA at all. But that kind of mentality, when it is unmoored in some of these younger voters from the traditional conservative principles polls, then they're okay with saying, you know what, I'm going to give somebody else a chance and not just voting all the way down ticket for Republicans because they've always done that. They're okay actually entertaining, a different vote, which is, which should really concern Republicans. And yet we're hearing the same kind of messaging we did, you know, all the way back in, you know, 2018, 2019. Oh, Democrats are in disarray, you know, and it's like, no, they're actually not. And to your point, they are a lot more disciplined. These DSA candidates have figured out how to appeal to younger voters on, you know, TikTok and social media.
DSA Candidates' Social Media Savvy and the Republican Party's Inability to Connect with Younger Voters
And while it looks a little, you know, screwy to somebody like me, who that doesn't appeal to, it actually does to the younger voters. And meanwhile, you just have, you know, kind of these stiff Republican suits that are out just doing the Fox News parade that none of the younger voters are paying attention to. And so, you know, when you talk about, and this book is so fascinating. Burn it down. this is the book that, you know, all the, all of my listeners, you need to read. burn it down. What the polls are saying young Americans really want. how concerned are you as well that this literally will come to a point? I mean like what we've seen in historical revolutions, I mean, you know, like the French Revolution that was just like, we're done. And here's where, you know, the population is rising up. How concerned are we at this point that there is a true possibility for a new sort of revolution, that really is going to undermine the Constitution. I mean, kind of, you know, in a sense what the, the Thomas Massey's and the Tucker Carlsen's and the Marjorie Taylor Greens are saying where, like, you know, what, we've tried the Trump thing, we're done with that party, we're done with both parties and we want to do something so completely different, that, that may be the future of where the, the MAGA movement is headed. And I'd be very concerned about that. I'm not a fan of, of Tucker's whole positioning.
Rich Baris: Yeah, I mean, I, I very.
Historical Precedents for Societal Devolutions and America's Complacency Regarding Its Own Vulnerability
And again, the, first couple of chapters of the book are trying to get people to understand each other's point of view. But then later on there's this complacency in America. The later chapters, especially from 6 on, really discussed all of those historical. We use various test cases that you were to refer to what you were just talking about, which is like, look, this has happened before. There's actually a very real template, for how societies can devolve like this. And it looks very similar to what we're all staring at right now. So we'll go through several historical, you know, case studies to show people this can happen. Because I think in America, this is a bit unique to America. We have this complacency and we have this almost false sense of security that these things can't happen here. Sure. They happened in France. That was the French. You know, they're just a little bit crazier than us. Or it happened in this case study. And we look at a figure like Franco because actually he's kind of revered by some of these younger voters. He got things and he got things done. and I think what the point of this is is to try to pierce people's biases a little bit. Like, look, America is exceptional, but it's not exempt from the rules of nature and it's not exempt from history. Right. I mean, we are a fantastic, just an incredibly unique country. And we did things, we just bucked history, like, you know, constantly throughout our history. Our own short. But it is a short history, Jenna. It's not like we've been around like Rome for a thousand years. This could go sideways and it can go sideways very quickly.
The Shifting Electorate: Third-Party Potential and the Decline of Traditional Party Loyalties
And looking at the polls, and I think this is why people are. Tucker and others are probably going to see a lot of success in the post Trump era with this. Looking at the polling, we're not one of those polls that ever found huge third party vote shares. Every time there's a presidential election. In 2016, we saw Johnson, right? Gary Johnson had it and he did all right, you know, maybe 3 to 5% he would poll somewhere in that neighborhood, which is high for a third party. Maybe Joe Stein would get two. even in 2020, it dropped again and we could see people just were ready to vote for a two party vote share again. That was it. By 24, we had Kennedy running. Then Kennedy getting with Trump was obviously a pivotal moment in the campaign because it gave Trump another about 4% and made some of these Very difficult battleground states, easier to win. And, if you look at the history of these battleground states, they do throw a lot of their vote share to third parties. Even Florida has done that over the years quite a bit. When Governor DeSantis was first elected, there were a number. I believe there were seven candidates on that ballot at the time. And third parties did win enough to the point where neither party got over 50%, even the winner, ultimately, Governor DeSantis. This is different. What I'm seeing now is different. And I think it reminds me. I'm just going to say it, you know, it reminds me of 1992. Even though I was around that wasn't a pollster. But the vote share levels for third party candidates are very high. If you were to take somebody, we did everybody. We've done Tucker, we've done Joe Kemp, we've done Thomas Massett. we've had fun.
The Terrifying Prospect of a Divided Right and the Betrayal of Core Campaign Promises
We even did JD as an independent against various traditional Republicans in case they were the nominee. And JD Ran as an independent. And I was doing that just to see, you know, how different would that be from some of the other candidates. We're at a point now where J.D. vance, if he ran as an independent, would actually get a higher vote share than every Republican ticket that we tested. Which tells you there is a huge chunk of the right wing coalition that doesn't want to do this anymore. And that's terrifying. It really is. The last time M. I brought up 92, because I think there's something in common there. George Herbert Walker Bush had a major campaign promise. Betrayal, Read my lips. No new taxes. And instead he raised taxes and he started a war. And that war, even was a popular war for the short duration it carried out. This is a campaign, and I hate using the B word, but it is what it is.
The Long Road to Reconciliation: Dealing with Broken Promises and the Threat of Third-Party Candidates
I mean, this is a broken promise. This is a betrayal at a level that, you know, I'm a millennial. we're similar ages. We've never seen this in our adult life before. You know, even Barack Obama, you could say he was an incredible letdown. But this was a central 10 year campaign promise and he broke it. And unfortunately there's just. We're going to have to deal with this and mend these fences before 28, because I do think a third party threat is real. And I. We're going to have to make nice with that side that's upset because if they run someone, sure they're not going to win. But I can see Thomas Massie getting 15% of the vote that's it. That's the ball game. Some of these other candidates, depending on the tickets, Jenna, they can get up to 20%. That is not good. And we can't win like that. We simply can't. There's the numbers aren't there. We can't win like that. And they'll have a seat at the table once that happens. And how long before we iron it out and everybody understands and is happy with their roles together in a coalition? It could take years. And after 1992, it took almost 10 years for George W. Bush, his father, to put the Ross Perot coalition back into the Republican coalition. That's fine. Bill Clinton was president for eight years and America was still strong. We didn't have a great debt.
The Evolving Democratic Party and the Diminished Potential for a Centrist Figurehead
Right. We ended up actually with a peace dividend. We don't have that luxury this time, unfortunately. We just don't. We're over 40 trillion in debt. The economy has structural problems. Times we can't afford to be 10 years in the wilderness while we figure this out.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, well, I mean, the Democrat Party is not the party of, you know, the Clinton era or prior. Barack Obama changed all of that. And so it's not going to be just this. Well, we have the luxury to potentially, you know, run a spoiler like a Ross Pro. See if we can potentially get the, the algorithm to where all of the disaffected voters on both sides will somehow coalesce to one candidate. I think we're too far apart for that, for, you know, anybody to, to get more than that, you know, 15 or 20% like you were saying. but we're not going to end up with somebody like a, Bill Clinton. I mean, and not that I was a huge advocate for his presidency, but comparatively to the Kamala Harris's, you know, even, even Hillary and what she ran on, you know, was wildly more to the left than the, Clinton administration.
RFK Jr. and the Potential for a Wild Card Candidate to Appeal to Disaffected Voters
I mean, you know, he was still, you know, the whole, he wasn't just pro abortion on demand. I mean, you know, still kind of was confined to some of the, conservative tradition, even as a Democrat. so, you know, so where, where would we potentially get the most value if someone ran third party? I mean, I thought potentially that somebody like an RFK junior who had a lot of credibility with the old Democrat Party, but also had some of that crossover with the disaffected Americans, especially those, you know, who don't believe in the institutions, they don't trust the legitimacy of government, especially coming out of Cove you know, all of His Maha movement really struck at a core, ah, population of voters. is there potentially some scenario where we could get sort of this wild card candidate that could draw enough from both parties that it would be at least significant enough to maybe not win in 2028, but at least have that potential threat down the road that could make a third party option viable that at least in a way would appease these voters who are done with both of the parties and the entire establishment.
The Appeal of Independent Candidates and the Challenge of Appeasing Disaffected Voters from Both Sides
Rich Baris: Yeah, I do. And I actually think you brought up one of them. That's the obvious right now because we have, we just did it, we just didn't release it yet. But somebody like Kennedy is drawing from both sides, which is, it's interesting to me because we've seen it with, and forgive me, I'm going to go down in the weeds a little bit here, but we've seen it with some of these other candidates, which shocked me. Even when we tried polling Tucker, it looked like he took roughly even shares from both. But the problem is that huge number of undecideds this early and when we lean the undecideds, meaning we force them to make a decision, you could see that the Democrats who were still, you know, or left leaning voters that didn't pick someone immediately, they all just of course went to the Democratic candidate with somebody like a Tucker and a Massey from, for instance, they're drawing, and especially independents who lean to the right, they're drawing them away from the Republican ticket, which really again does nothing because it's not adding to the conversation, it just ends up in a Republican defeat and then that's it. And Democrats go on to be emboldened. And unfortunately in that scenario, I think you see the DFA get emboldened and I think they think that they'll have one of the free reign and run of the mill to not be a Bill Clinton Democrat. And they'll take it as a false affirmation, but they'll take it as an affirmation nonetheless that people are endorsing their politics, they're endorsing their policies and things will go really badly. But somebody like a Kennedy still does take, especially when we, those leaners that I'm thinking about, he still does pull almost equal shares from them and I think he has bona fides from the right at this point because he done very good work at human services.
Weakening the Parties: Voters' Intentions and the Rise of Independent Identification Among Younger Generations
So, whether or not he can, you know, he will want to do that or he can even still do it when we get to 28, I guess is another story. But right now it is limited. What we hear though. And I think I just want to make this point, what we hear from people. And this scares me a little bit. But it is, what it is, is that they feel that they have not really punished the party, but that they would vote for a third party just to weaken it so that they can do something with it at a later time. And I get that. I understand that argument completely. I actually do think the Ross Pro coalition made the Republican Party better down the road. The problem is what I said before, which is that we don't really have time for those experiments. We just don't. So it's either got to be a candidate like you're talking about who can really be a threat to both sides. And you know, we see a lot, we hear stories about this all the time that, you know, their Americans are increasingly identifying as independent. Even in the article I wrote on rugged politics, I make this point that, especially the younger generation, they don't really identify as either conservative or liberal like prior generations do. The huge chunk call themselves moderate, even though they don't really have moderate views. They're rejecting both labels. So the question will be, can somebody rise at a time when more of these voters become a larger share of the electorate? Because that's when the real opportunity for a game changer will come. That's when it'll be presented. Two years from now is still probably a little too early.
The Generational Divide in Third-Party Voting and the Need for Broader Appeal Beyond Millennials and Gen Z
You're just going to have still too many baby boomers and even older Gen X who will just will not vote third party. All of the third party vote share. I don't want to say all of it because that's not how statistics works. But I'm generalizing because that's what people, people like me do. But it really does come from the millennial and Gen Z cohorts of the electorate. That's where the third party vote share comes from. So until we see somebody who can take from older generations as well, you're better off waiting. Otherwise you're really just going to play the role of spoiler.
Jenna Ellis: Well, Rich Barris, this has been such a fascinating conversation and I think, for the people who kind of want to bury their head in the sand and say, well, you know, Republicans are the party of principle and so, you know, they're just gonna keep winning and we just have to kind of ram this through and say socialism bad and Democrats bad. So, you know, vote down, ticket, whatever, this isn't gonna work.
Waking Up to Reality: The Urgent Need for Republicans to Appeal to Younger Voters' Concerns
I mean, this is a very timely message because, we need to wake up to the realities of what younger voters are looking at. as, you know, the. The younger generations become the largest, voting block and demographic. we're going to have to appeal to them in a, A better way than, I think, the messaging of the current Republican Party. whether that comes from, you know, another outsider, whether that's reform within the party after potentially a really bad midterm. You know, whatever it takes. it's going to be really interesting to see where this all goes from here and after the midterms. But the book is Burn it, what the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want Again, by Rich Barris. And, you really need to read this. And I would encourage you to think about this holistically, not as just, you know, know, a pro or anti Trump thing, pro or anti Republican. I mean, this is ultimately for protecting the future of America and, saving America from the. The leftist, you know, ideology and socialism being just a totally different view of the legitimacy of government, a totally different view of reality. And so this isn't just about whether you have been or are currently, you know, pro Trump or not.
Rich Baris: Not.
Jenna Ellis: he's not going to be on the ballot in 2028.
Confronting Harsh Truths: Protecting America's Future and the Legitimacy of Government
And some of these things that maybe are harsh truths are still truths that we've got to confront. So, Rich, I really appreciate so much the extended conversation, and anything else that you want to say about the book.
Rich Baris: you know, I would just. You really nailed it. Like, doesn't give me great joy to point out a lot of these things, Jenna, but, you know, this is a politic. It's a numbers game. Politics is a game of addition, not subtraction. And we're going to find ourselves sooner than people realize in a very difficult position and increasingly have a more difficult time winning national elections if we don't confront what you just said. And that's the entire point of the book. And, you know, have a little bit of empathy for some of your fellow Americans. Some of what I've heard recently is a little bit shocking to me, but they're going to make you have empathy, is my point. They're going to make you confront reality because. Because they're coming. And we call it the revenge of the Millennials. But wait until Gen Z gets here. It's going to be a brave new world. We have to deal with this now. And, you know, it is about, like you said, this is about the future of the country. And it's not really about a man. It's not really about a movement, and it's about the survival of our way of life.
The Politics of Numbers and Empathy: Facing Reality and Ensuring the Survival of Our Way of Life
And we have to confront it now, before it's too late.
Jenna Ellis: Absolutely.
Rich Baris: Stopwatch on it.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. Well, we'll continue to confront it and, continue to push hard, for all of the, these, these principles and the propositions and, and the reality. So, Rich Bears, really appreciate you joining again. The book is Burn it down from Simon and Schuster, get it wherever books are sold. And as always, for these conversations, if you have a topic or guest you'd love, for us to talk about or hear from, you can always reach me and my team, Jenna, afr.net and I will see you next week on Demand.
Rich Baris: Sat.
We take a hard look at the current state of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement with esteemed pollster Rich Barris. As we dissect the shifting dynamics among younger voters, Barris shares insights from his recent piece, 'Young Voters Did Not Elect Trump for This.' Tune in for an engaging discussion on the evolving political landscape and what it means for the future of America.
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