Jenna Ellis: When a mother meets her baby, it's divine connection
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Jenna Ellis: I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time. This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Chris Ekstrom: Florida's governor's race was decided last night
Jenna Ellis: Good morning. It is Wednesday, August 19, and the Florida primary took place last night. And unlike California, we actually know who won. So you know that that's a really great thing. And we didn't even have to stay up till midnight, here in the free State of Florida because, we actually know how to run elections, thanks to Governor DeSantis and, you know, some really great Republicans in this state. But let's talk about what actually happened because, overall, I'm really happy with a lot of the results. and I think that, the primaries, overall, Florida voters did a great job. Of course, I live here in the free State of Florida. I'm a voter here. and the, the biggest obvious, outcome here was all eyes were on the governor's race. And the Democrat primary, of course, went to David Jolly. That was no surprise. And then the Republican primary went to Byron Don, who, and also no surprise, but there were a couple of key components about this race that I think are worth, diving into beyond just the fact that, okay, he won, and this is obvious, and we can all discuss the reasons, likely because he entered so early. He had Trump's endorsement behind him. He had the MAGA machine. He had over $100 million in the race and was just insurmountable because no one else could even come close in terms of name recognition. And also Governor DeSantis decided to stay out of the primary. He did say along the way some nice things, about former House Speaker Paul Renner. early on, he said nice things about his lieutenant, Governor Jay Collins, and then, backed off of that and so there was, ah, really a contest kind of to see, you know, who was really going to carry the mantle. A lot of confusion, I think, especially between kind of February up through, maybe just a couple of weeks ago about who DeSantis, may be supporting. And so according to the polls, Undecided was always pulling ahead of Byron Donalds. And, that actually came true last night in this sense that Byron Donald's failed to achieve 50% or more, and he actually ended with 47.8%. So this was, 810,000 votes with 99% of those counted, according to the AP. So he ended up at 47. And this is actually very concerning, going into the general election because that means that 53% or, a little under that, ah, 53% or 52 point, 2 of Republican registered Florida voters wanted literally anybody else but Byron Donalds. And then there, of course, is the split, among the rest of the ticket. But the sentiment in Florida right now, with, with a lot of people, obviously well over 50%, is that they're very concerned about Byron Donald succeeding Governor DeSantis. And I think that if Byron wants to coalesce Republicans in Florida, he's going to have to change his messaging and his attitude. He ran on a very entitled campaign, literally just the Trump endorsement, and thought that that would carry him through the primary, which it did. But a general election is very different. I think he knows that. I think he's smart enough to understand that. But he needs to start backing more DeSantis policy on things that matter, particularly things like pro life, not pushing, or not. Not even fighting against legalizing recreational marijuana. I mean, you know, just some basic
Jenna Ellis: things that should signal that you're a conservative.
Jenna Ellis: And so I'm going to give him the opportunity to earn my vote. but I would like to see some of those things. And I don't think that he should take for granted this contrast to just say, okay, well, we fought the primary and, you know, I won, so now the Republican base must vote for me because the Democrat is so bad. there is a line of thinking that, yes, every election is a closed universe situation. And so, we always are voting for the best possible alternative of those who are actually running. I'm a big advocate and proponent of that, but I don't think that that should be taken for granted. especially because if you consider the Democrats, the independents and Republicans who may stay home, you're looking at a very hotly contested Florida race in a state that Governor DeSantis won, by double digits in 2022. So, let's, let's talk about this and let's welcome in Krish Ekstrom, who's a member, a board member of US Term Limits. And, and Krish, you know, while the primary is supposed to be about choosing our best possible candidate, ah, from the Conservative Party, and that's supposedly what Republican primaries at least are supposed to be doing, it seems like there is, there's too much coronation that is still going on. And my concern for Florida is that, Byron Donalds has the same fundamental flaw that a lot of Republican candidates, across the country are having, which is that they don't take seriously what the actual voters want. They just think if they have Trump's endorsement, they can sail through.
Jenna Bennett: Byron Donalds was held below 50% last night
Chris Ekstrom: Good morning, Jenna. I, think you teed it up really well on Byron Donald's, which is of course the premier state story of last night. Although there were a lot of other stories and some very good things. I think, I do think it was a good thing that Byron was held below, 50%. He should take that as a message. I wouldn't take this as a triumph. Byron started out the campaign extremely weak. He, was notably soft on the stump. this was reported to me by people that were all over the place on this race, many of whom really wanted to support, Byron Donalds, largely because he was being endorsed by President Trump. they were always interested to see where Governor, DeSantis would go. I think the context that Byron is running in is that Governor DeSantis was the leading governor in the entire country. He's probably one of the best governors we've produced since Reagan. and free Florida was a reality. I mean, you saw a culture change in Florida, even in places like South Florida, where Broward county is a Democrat stronghold that was constructed very, definitively by Democrats over maybe a 25 year period. They recruited people to come down and live in Florida who were Democrats. And they did it in many different subtle ways. they managed to bring a lot of black middle class people from all over the country into Broward. And you know, this race is sort of, I think the future of Florida rests on how Byron Donalds may rest. Let's say that, on how Byron Donalds received this message. I hope he receives the message and emulates, as you suggested, Ron DeSantis. I hope he tries to get Ron DeSantis back into the fold with him. And I, you know, the Byron Donalds who wanted to talk about being from Brooklyn all the time. I never could understand that. I don't know who that was supposed to appeal to on a statewide basis. If that was his idea, then his ideas were terrible and clearly somebody got a hold of him and decided to talk more about the inspiring side of Byron's life, which was being a guy was working at Cracker Barrel and now is going to be governor of Florida. I mean nobody really cares about his life in Brooklyn in Florida. and that's more of a Democrat talking point. So, yeah, I'm all over the place here on Byron because Byron was all over the place. We're all hoping for the best, Jenna, and I hope he will learn from this, episode, let's put it that way.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I think where you, where you ended that great analysis with we're all hoping for the best. that's also true and should be true for real conservatives after contentious primaries because regular, listeners of this show, you know, know, well, my concerns, ah, with Byron Donalds and and yet now that he is the nominee, it's similar to those of us who supported Governor DeSantis running for president in 2024. Okay. Once, ah, Donald Trump got the nomination then, and then of course, once he won as well, we're going to hope for the best and say, you know, this is about the future of our nation and here this is about the future of our state. And so we're not going to wish him ill or hope that he doesn't succeed or you know, learns lessons that actually affect our life and policy. my hope for Byron and for all Republican, nominees out of various primaries in various states is that the lessons that they take away from the primaries are okay, I now have a vested trust from the party and from the voting base. So I need to be serious about that and actually look at what being a conservative means. unfortunately that doesn't happen in a lot of instances. But, but I think that in, in Florida in particular, we can hope that with Byron because as you mentioned as well, he's going to need Governor DeSantis endorsement. And what was very interesting last night is that Governor DeSantis did put out a statement, but it wasn't specific to Byron. in fact, he was listed second among all of the top line, nominees that Governor DeSantis congratulated in bulk and basically said, you know, like, like a, you know, Team USA Olympic players, you know, congratulations to all of our, all of our Athletes that, you know, won a spot on Team usa. You know, it wasn't specific to anybody. It wasn't a heartfelt, warm congratulations to Byron. And that was notable because DeSantis did say, on at least the primary level, repeatedly that Byron was not part of the wins in Florida that were significant to Republicans, and that he also, did not share Governor DeSantis policy. And so this is going to be a, hopefully, a turning point in Byron's campaign where he's going to take this 47% and say, okay, I need to be serious and not just assume that the. The bulk of these undecided, this 50, 50 to 53% is just going to get on board.
Chris Ekstrom: Because if I were Byron, of course, I'm a very conservative guy, so, you're going to hear this from me probably most times, but I would try to out DeSantis. DeSantis. On a topic like DEI. There is plenty of work in Free Florida to be done, particularly, among our universities to get rid of this DEI nonsense. And that is, a change in culture that I think is national. But Byron would have the opportunity to lead the way on that, and that was an issue that he just, frankly, wasn't too strong on. Now he's fortunate to be up against one of the most vile, never Trump. I wanted to use another word, and I stopped myself. David Jolly. Whenever you change parties, first off, especially when you go from Republican to Democrat, usually, that won't work. Democrats just are never going to accept them, into their, loving arms. And the. The David Jolly is such a clown and such a remarkably obtuse, figure that, I mean, really, I think any of our candidates that finished in the top, four or five, could probably have beaten David Jolly. but Byron has got an opportunity to make a point here. And let's just pray, Jenna, that he decides that he wants to make that point and be the leader that he can be. Because there's a lot of things DeSantis prepared the ground for, and it would be a terrible shame to let those things just, go off into the mists of history.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And what do you make, Krish Eckstrom, of The fact that Governor DeSantis decided to not weigh in on the primary? Because there's a lot of, you know, various speculation of he didn't see anyone who could actually overcome Byron. he wants to remain viable in the gop. He didn't want to go, after Trump, or, you know, he's just, you know, kind of piecing out of Florida. I mean, you know, there's kind of a wide, variety of opinions. I have my own opinion, but I'd like to hear yours. and what you make of the fact that, you know, I think he is not going to be happy at the end of the day, even privately if he's turning over the reins, to Byron instead of someone like ah, a Paul Renner. but that was in, that was definitely his choice to not endorse in the primary.
Chris Ekstrom: Yeah, there's a lot of inside baseball, behind this. Clearly there's a, there's a dispute between Desantis faction and Trump faction. I don't think it's so much between the president and the governor really, literally, personally, as it really is between factions and people who are powerful in those factions. I think that DeSantis was making a point. I think that he was exposing, Byron Donalds to some hazing. I think it was some hazing that, Byron Donalds richly needed. It's not even a matter of just deserving or it being a sort of spite, issue. I think it, the fact that he got picked on by all these other candidates, including James Fishback, who played a role in this, was, good for Byron. no question about it. In my mind. I think that Desantis, you know, the one unforced error that could have been his was not supporting Renner when there would have been a chance to prop him up. I think Renner would have have been the best choice for DeSantis, all things considered. But then again, I think there was a side of DeSantis that didn't want to go against President Trump in this crucial sort of Florida, you know, state, where we have picked up a state and turned it from purple to red. so I think there was that in DeSantis mind and at least I hope, I hope that's true because that would be a healthy thought. Jake Collins was just a complete non starter and I can't believe that DeSantis picked him with the idea that this is what he really wanted for his legacy. I have to feel like he was a placeholder that was stuck in there and then he was given a chance. And once, DeSantis saw, you know, where his limitations were, that he just didn't want any more part of that and, I can't blame him at all. I hope Jay Collins is one who does fade into the mists of history and we won't be, seeing him around no more.
Jenna Ellis: That'd be just Fine, I agree. And I think actually both the Trump and the DeSantis factions, actually the one unifying point they agree on is you know, hoping that Jay packs it up and goes back to Montana and you know, isn't really in the political space at all after running the worst campaign on the state level that I think I've ever seen. which is saying something. but I agree overall with your analysis and in the fact that this kind of primary level hazing was good for Byron overall. and I agree with your assessment overall of Desantis and his relationship with the President. They're really good friends, and a lot of people don't want to hear that on both sides, but they actually, it's just a fact, they actually are.
Donald Wiles: I think Florida's primary is difficult because it's late
and so the other piece of this though, for, for those in Florida who are concerned about Byron and you know, we'll continue to talk about all of this in just the couple of months before November. I think it is difficult for for Florida that our primary is so late. Ah right, because Byron will only have a couple of months before November instead of you know, from back in March. And now we have a little bit of breathing room to sort of coalesce and, and all of that. So that's one one issue he'll have to to surmount. But the other key piece of this, regardless of where the messaging goes and some of these things overall that I think is a really good thing for Florida is that if we look at the other top three positions that are Florida's cabinet and the way that our state level structure of government is, when you have Wilton Simpson who's the nominee for Agricultural Commissioner, but then especially you, you have James Usmeyer who is the nominee for Attorney General uncontested and then you have Blaze Angolia who has done a phenomenal job as CFO and won overwhelmingly the nomination as well last night. James and Blaze are two guys I know personally, ah very well and have known for years and they are as good as it gets. They're DeSantis conservatives and I think that they will help reign in perhaps some of Byron's less conservative potential urges and, and some of his policy positions, if it gets to that. And I have hope that he will be able to be steered a little bit by those independently elected and so non fireable positions. And so that's where I think there's a bigger silver lining and why I Hope that ultimately, the governor's cabinet, including the, governor's position, will not stray from, Republicans, because then it can be kind of a lockstep. Okay. We're gonna do what's in the best interests of Florida. Take more of a DeSantis model instead of having to contend with someone who is just literally off the rails in terms of policy for trans and kids and, you know, all kinds of absurd nonsense like David Jolly. So I'm. I'm very happy about Blaze and James. Go ahead.
Mark Mitchell: Well, I think, let me add two other interesting, because it's apropos of this with regard to the influence of the president. The president had two of his endorsements lose last night, and one of them, Corrie, Mills, who, you know, obviously has had this crazy, topsy turvy life that frankly should invalidate you for public office. he was close with Byron Donaldson.
Mark Mitchell: I'm not.
Mark Mitchell: I don't know what his influence was or continued to be, but I would say that it's a good thing that he's no longer doing the influencing there. And, I thought the outcome with this, loss. I thought she was going to win, actually, in Byron's old seat, which is Naples, Florida, which is a notorious seat for people basically showing up about, two weeks before the filing date and becoming a congressman. the guy who won, Schwartzel, I believe is his name, is a local phenomena, so he's actually a bit of a rare bird over there. And, Collins was another former congressman who came down for that one out of the. Out of the blue, and he lost. He had been an associate of the president's in NewSong York. I just think that was sort of a weird and interesting outcome. I think, again, if I'm Byron McDonald's and I'm looking at the big picture in Florida, I'm looking at my own seat, and I'm saying, wow. I mean, how did that happen over there? And my friend Mills is no longer with us.
Mark Mitchell: I'm.
Mark Mitchell: I'm just saying, overall, last night was what I would call a message to Byron. And that is, Byron, you know, you got work to do here. You got a little bit of time. You're up against the clown in David Jolly, so you don't need to be running as scared, maybe. And maybe you need to be doing a lot of work to shore up what the Desantis has bequeathed you. And, you know, I hate to put it all on one guy, in Byron Donald's. That is a lot to put on one guy. But you know what, when you want to be governor and when you're given $100 million and when the president goes all in, and Susie Wiles and the powers that be in Florida do, you'd better be ready to pick, up the, pick up the reins and
Jenna Ellis: ride, you know, and especially when you're following someone. Absolutely. And we got to take a break here. But especially when you're also in the position of following someone like Governor DeSantis. because this isn't just, you know, a purple state where, wow, we're so thankful that we don't just have the extreme socialist right. I mean, this is the free state of Florida. So the stakes are, are a lot higher. And the, the perception among the people who live here and moved here, like I did because of DeSantis's leadership, the expectations and the bar is so much higher. So, Krish Ekstrom, really appreciate it. We'll be right back with more.
Jenna Ellis: Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.net forward slg that's afr.net give welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Radio.
Mark Mitchell: Byron Collins underperformed Lindsey Graham in Florida primary
Jenna Ellis: Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis: We are talking about Florida's primary results and I want to get, the opinion of our next guest before we also move on to, Darlene Nordone Graham's just absolutely terrible debate. So, so let's welcome in Mark Mitchell, who is the CEO of Honest Poll. And, Mark, I was, listening to a clip last night of your conversation with, Rich Barris, who's for listeners, to know he's also a, a commentator. Ah. And pollster. And I thought that that commentary, was actually really spot on. That again, you know, these numbers for Byron is actually a pretty embarrassing showing. And I hope that he takes the message overall that he's not going to be able to just sail through on the Trump endorsement and is actually going to have to figure out how to be more in alignment, with DeSantis legacy policy and values. what's your take overall of the state of the state of Florida?
Mark Mitchell: I mean, I think that's exactly correct. We're going into a midterms where really pretty much anything could happen. And you're seeing some crazy stuff. Not in Florida, but you're seeing races like North Carolina, where pollsters are putting out, Whatley down as much as 16, 17 points worse than Trump did just two years ago. You're seeing, you know, same kind of thing in Georgia. And so, like, I don't, I don't know. I mean, again, Republicans own Florida, it's a red state, but it's going to be closer than people thought it would be. And he's going to have to spend more money, and that's money that could be going from the RNC to defend House seats that should be safe. And so it's not where you'd want to be. And we, you know, it was really tough knowing where this was going to come out because there hadn't been a ton of good polling. And, you know, I pulled for Mark lynch up against Lindsey Graham. And one of the things that I was told is that, well, you know, the Republican establishment is going to get revenge on you. Lindsey Graham's going to hate you, and you can't do that. It's going to ruin your career. And I did it anyways. And I can only imagine there was the same kind of sentiment, which is like, hey, this guy's been endorsed by Trump seven times. He's got the ear of the president. The entire fundraising apparatus wants this guy to win. And if you put a poll out that puts him on a debate stage with James Fischbach, then you're going to be Persona non grata in the entire polling industry. So what we were surprised to see at the end of the day is that actually the few polls that were put out were pretty good. Everybody was really looking. you know, one of the trends we've been following is what happens with the youth vote, what is online real life, and how is Fishback going to perform? And yet the big surprise was how great Collins did. Nobody expected him. Every single person missed him by like 12 points or more. And he came out with a quarter of the vote. And I said on that stream, Byron Donald's at 50%, and Trump's basically home base with all of this money, all the manna from heaven. And he barely. I mean, he's, he's at half the vote. He underperformed Lindsey Graham. And so, like, that's just not where you want to be. And what I think. And you know Florida better than me, what I think is that Collins over performance was probably people's, like, instinctual desire for a continuation of the status quo or more maturity in office.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And. And I think that his position running, you know, as the current Lieutenant Governor obviously helped him and he had that float that influx of the $5 million, you know, a couple of months ago that allowed him to put out just more ads and you know, be on more media. And that actually makes a difference. And one of the things that Governor DeSantis, you know, said in the last, couple of weeks that, you know, he thought Paul Renner would be a great governor. He's like, but what are you going to do to get out there and get your name known in a big state like Florida? And I think that's one of the things that in the very beginning was just insurmountable with Byron, is that he's been on the Fox News Newsmax, circuit as a very well known Congressman for years. I mean even, you know, my own parents in Colorado, they, they knew Byron, but they didn't know the rest of the names. And so, you know, anybody else who's a voter in Florida, that's just really hard. So, you know, I totally agree with, with your assessment there and also that it's going to be difficult, overall for Byron. But you know, that's in Florida and we have now over a million more registered Republicans, because of the DeSantis legacy, than you know, we did in 2018 when he took the reins. But that's not the case for other states around the country. And so, you know, when you look at what's going on nationally, I think there's a problem as well with the, this whole idea that of coronations. And where do you think that the Trump endorsement value is actually going to be in the midterms?
Mark Mitchell: I think Trump still manages his own White House messaging and comms. Like he has people that does things for him. But I think fundamentally the tone he puts out comes from him and he loves being a king, the coronates people and he loves the endorsement. And I would just say in general, and we've been predicting this for a very long time on your show, MAGA is going to come to an end. Not because I don't like Trump, not because like being mean to him or I want Democrats to win. It's just natural. He's getting older, he's approaching the end of his time in presidency. He's already 70% through all of his presidency time. And the odds look like right now he's going to lose at least one house of the, of the Congress. So that means his legislative agenda is over what little there's been in the second term. And already you can see other signs. So everybody looked at the percent margin in the primary turnout over Democrats in Florida and said look this, Republicans are crushing it. But actually it looks like yesterday's turnout is coming in the lowest 5% of Republican registrations in 2018 and 2022 it's gone from 35 to 33 and now down to 31%. And this is again Trump's home base. Now that's still a high turnout for Republicans. But we've seen this other trend where Republican turnouts and primaries are dropping and also where Republicans are underperforming polling in all the special elections since 2024. So I think 2024 was really kind of the high watermark of the Trump movement. And now you're starting to see the endorsements fray. I mean like your previous guest said, he lost two of them and of course he's not going to put those on his true social. But seven time Trump endorsement like MAGA champion Byron Donalds got 50% of the vote in Florida and people who say, oh look at that, he crushed this back, look at that. And it's like, okay, but 50%, like you can't escape that. This is, these are the people like. And so when Trump's blonde, who's leading this movement? Who are its heroes? How is it there's going to be cohesion? And right now the right is just this circular firing squad because they want to control what the right or conservatism means. And what me and Rich think and have talked a long time is that nobody really understands what they need to be, which is something that represents economic fairness.
Jenna Ellis: M and that is a key issue. And you know, and this is not surprising that the Trump era is coming to an end. I mean that's just how it always goes in political cycles. I mean we can look at the eight years of Reagan and then how, you know, conservative politics moved on. I mean that's kind of the last, you know, big great, era and conservatives always refer to it, right, you know, the Reagan era. Well the MAGA era is naturally coming to an end and obviously there will be a successor to Trump. But that's going to be very different because there's no leader like Trump, there's no personality, like Trump. And I think that we need to as a movement be prepared for that and not just expect that Trump is going to himself is going to go into this kind of emeritus position with total control over the gop and, and his endorsements will carry the same value. I mean we're already reaching lame duck territory pretty quickly here. And so you said the words, so
Mark Mitchell: I didn't have to. I agree.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
JD: How difficult is this midterm election for Republicans
And I mean, and that's just the reality. And again, like you said, that's not, you know, me hating on Trump. That's not, you know, saying, I hope that he fails or the next, you know, two years, we don't get any policy done. I'm frustrated with the last two years, but that's just the political reality. And so when you take, a look at the entire country, how difficult do you think, that this is going to be for Republicans? I mean, in the midterms, are we going to learn our lesson to perhaps finally do what we should have done back in 2024 and actually figure out again, kind of this fourth wave, or fourth turning of what we understand conservatism truly to be and what it is we're fighting for beyond a personality.
Mark Mitchell: So whether you like him or not, what I think is very important is the 10 points that Tucker came out with. And listen, I'm not a DC Insider, I'm an outsider, and I think that's why I do my job better. But I understand public opinion. And when you are trying to form a coalition, like what Trump did, he had great branding, and that brought him a long way. But he also knew what Americans wanted. They wanted a border wall. You know, they wanted, China to be held accountable. They wanted the swamp to be drained. And so he gave them what they wanted. But the problem is, is that we're not going to get that again, probably. And also, I think you're going to find, because Trump is really kind of tracing the job approval rating of George W. Bush in his second term, they're almost exactly the same. And of course, at the time, he was becoming unpopular because he was mired in the Middle East. people are going to be looking for a lot of the Trump agenda, but in a delivery that looks like it's intent on actually, like, governing that way. And that's going to be a hard thing to deliver. And so what Tucker did, in my opinion, is start with values and morals. And I think that's something that's more important to the youth than just saying a policy position or just parroting a word like conservatism. I'm going to be a staunch conservative. Like, what? It's hard to get excited about that. Like, what does that mean? It means you're going to get in office and do nothing for four years. Right. So when he Says, like, fairness, okay? Or, you know, rule of law or these things. Then when you say a policy like we have to deport everybody, people are going to say, okay, well, you're doing it because that's fairness and that's national sovereignty. Right? Well, I think a lot of people mapped whatever they wanted on Trump's policy of deporting everybody. And then the problem is, is that when you see something like, oh, all of a sudden Trump is. Is for scaling back the deportations, then it's like, well, what was. Why were we doing this? What was the value or moral? So the left called it racist, and then the right called it, you know, a lot of people on the right say, well, you know, he just said it to get elected. So I think that that's a positive thing. And I think JD Is smart in a builder and is really, unfortunately the only economic populist that I think we really have on the right with bonafides. So that puts us in a tough spot, because obviously he's going to have a lot of opponents that don't want him to get elected. And you can see it now. They're basically calling him a socialist. And, like, I don't know how you get over that.
Mark Mitchell: Like, I don't know how you build a cohesive, movement. And if Trump, like you said, like, he's going to have a hard time going emeritus, I think that's very much the case because he still will be the most influential person in the right, but he'll also be divisive and as a lame duck, like, a lot of people are just not even want to hear from him anymore. I don't. I mean, if he really wanted his legacy to be the best as possible, it would be a graceful, like grooming and turnover to JD but we haven't seen that coming yet.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I, I'm not sure that, that handing anything over, particularly, you know, power, influence, peacefully is, you know, is really ever, in Trump's wheelhouse. but, you know, we. We could be surprised. And, you know, and my opinion, of course, is that, you know, Rubio is currently positioned, I think, to be, the best overall successor. you know, we can. Obviously, we will talk about that a lot more, as. As we get past the midterms and start looking to 2028. But, we are going to keep Mark Mitchell through the break. Come back. I want to talk about, Darlene Graham Nordone, who I think is going to be one of Trump's, probably worst endorsements of this cycle. Maybe we can understand that a little bit just because, you know, he had such fondness for her brother, the late Lindsey Graham. but we'll be right back with more here on Jenna Ellis in the morning.
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Mark Mitchell says Darlene Graham botched national security question during debate
Welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis: Welcome back. I'm here, with my special guest this morning, Mark Mitchell, who's the CEO of Honest Poll. You can follow him on social media. I'd encourage you to do that for all of the, political takes and really good information, and pulling info. but Mark, I want to talk about, Darlene Graham. And this was just a really shockingly embarrassing debate performance, but just proved the point that, you know, she really is not qualified in any meaningful sense, to actually run for this term. my view is that, you know, she should have just taken the appointment, finished out, the term, not run. Her staff could, you know, protect her from a lot of, you know, interviews and questions and so forth. And then she could have just, you know, retired peacefully and she's, she's done the, the brief service for, her brother's legacy, but then hand over the seat to someone, like a Ralph Norman who actually knows what he's doing. but this was the exchange. And and this was not even a difficult or, you know, a gotcha question, during the Debate. She was simply asked about national security. This is cut one, Senator.
Speaker E: are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? If so, why? I'm sorry, could you repeat the question? Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? And if so, why or how? I'm just going to be honest here. I'm not on national security. I'm not that informed on national security, so. But I do support the military.
Jenna Ellis: just, just terrible. Your, your thoughts, Mark?
Mark Mitchell: I mean, I think my 14 year old could have given a better response than that. And I think she really knows, but I think she didn't want to create a sound bite that could be used against her. Wouldn't you know it, she, she did even the worst one, which is like, okay, now you make yourself look incompetent. This is the Trump endorsement, everybody. This is the one. This is the maga. So it's like back to our previous discussion. What does it even mean at this point? And I think people are looking at this like the number one worst thing she could have said is that, well, Israel's our greatest ally and we're going to support everything they do in the Middle East. We're going to give them infinite military backstop. Then this one was like, nope, this one's even worse. So I think people will look at that and say, well, she's just going to rub or stamp whatever the Republicans tell her to. And that's, I guess, who Trump wants in office. I don't know. But she's, I think, has a real shot at getting beat now because there was a very crowded field, but now it's probably going to pile in behind Norman and he's known in the state and that's it. It's over. Another Trump endorsement in the can. And, you know, I think going back to our previous quick talk about JD And Rubio is that there's a discussion that's got to be had about foreign policy in the Republican Party. And it feels like we're regressing into an interventionalist Bush era Republican, party that is nails on the chalkboard. It doesn't mean that people don't understand foreign policy and that they wouldn't support the right kind of actions, but it's not the priority people want by like almost a 3 to 1 margin. They say they want a domestic policy focus and that's why it's important for Rubio to pay attention to these things. J.D. vance is out polling him, you know, 2 to 1 and earlier in the term, it was 3 to 1among GOP likely primary voters. And solely, I think the reason is, is that JD has more domestic policy focus. They want, people want their economic situation put first. And I really haven't seen Rubio talk about any of that stuff at all. So I don't know, I mean, stuff will happen behind the scenes to determine, I think, who's probably going to be the candidate. But he'd be well advised to pay attention to what you really want and that is fair capitalism. And I said this last night in a tweet, there are two Republicans on Mount Rushmore. One of them is Abraham Lincoln and the other is a Republican that was actually very socialistic on the economy. He was all for confiscating excess wealth of billionaires. He was for higher wages and he was for busting up monopolies. I've never, I don't even think I've heard a Republican outside of JD Vance say the word monopoly. And that's their, that's their Achilles heel. That's the critical failure of the Republican Party right now.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and I completely agree with you that you know, a lot of the base, especially you know, the America only sort of, you know, young people who are really frustrated with what's going on, you know, with Iran, with Israel, you know, everything going on right now, I mean, even my little brother was texting me last night. He's not in that category. But you know, even someone who's very conservative like him, you know, was texting our family group chat last night saying, you know, what is Trump doing in Iran still? You know, that look at the gas prices and you know, this affects him. I mean he's newly married and he has a good job, but it's like he's one of those that's building toward buying a house someday and you know, falls into that category of wanting to actively pursue the American dream and is frustrated now as much as he has been the most ardent supporter of Donald Trump, you know, voted for him, and all of that. And so, but where on the Rubio front, you know, I mean right now he's, he's the Secretary of State, so obviously his forward facing view is going to naturally be more foreign policy. but I agree with you that as you know, things progress, especially after, the midterms, if he's going to be a candidate, then he's going to have to address, you know, a lot more of that. And I think that he will. but how much of this is about perception, instead of perhaps, you know, the track record that people don't remember because it's not, you know, the immediate 5 minutes ago news cycle.
Mark Mitchell: I mean I think he is a vestige of a Republican party. And I'm not saying again that he can't break out of this. I'm just saying like my opinion of a Republican Party that firmly believed in the corporate tax cuts and trickle down economics and Reaganomics and by extension globalism and job offshoring and this is the club for growth, you know, Cato Institute, Republican ah, party. And I would just say like across the board that's a dying proposition because we are essentially in a gilded age and we have this problem before. This is not a new problem. There were like top 10 songs in the 1880s about busting up monopolies. Like we've had problems with workers rights and wages being suppressed in the United States. Right. So we know the way out of this. And unfortunately it's not Reaganomics and unfortunately it's a president that gets in and has the sort of spine to be hostile to these corporations and create a fairer economic situation. And that might even mean playing fast and loose with the Constitution like Teddy, Roosevelt did. And so you know, when you, when you pound your chest and see how the Constitutional is conservative, you know, free markets and stuff, like it's not, it's not going to go well. And JD's got a lot of history talking about these things. But then ultimately the other problem you have is the entire Republican infrastructure and establishment is not equipped to even think about this issue, let alone talk about it in a particular way. And again, I'm not saying like this is incrementally going to be a strangling death of the Republican Party over time. This isn't like if they don't do this in 2028, like I do think they're going to lose 2028, all things being equal, just because that's what tends to happen, it swings back. Right?
Mark Mitchell: And they're not going to have as big of a coattails as they've had in the past. And people are going to want to put Trump, a lot of them are going to want to put the Trump period behind them. And so it's likely to say that whoever the Democrat nominee is, they have a pretty good shot right now. But then every year that goes on, you're losing about 3 million of those people who believe in Grandpappy's, capitalism, right? And you're getting those voters replaced with people who think the entire economic system is unfair. And so you're going to see this increasing messy middle of people who are up for grabs and the Republicans just aren't as equipped as the Democrats to grab those people.
Jenna Ellis: And I agree with that assessment that, you know, all things being equal and where we're sitting out and things could change. But, you know, today, August 19th, you know, in 2026, that it's, it's more likely than not that Republicans will lose in 2028. And that is probably the biggest, biggest overall factor that someone like Iran DeSantis is contemplating whether or not he will wade, into the presidential primary.
Mark Mitchell: Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans will lose
Because, you know, I know him well enough to know that if he truly believes that regardless of who the nominee is, it's more likely that Republicans will lose. He won't even put his, ah, hat in the ring. And so I think that, that, that is going to be a very interesting bellwether moment, to see his political calculation and whether or not he chooses to speak step in and what that says overall, because he's a very savvy forecaster, he's not in it, in my opinion, at all for himself or the power. He genuinely is a statesman, which is what you want. And so I think that's going to be also just an interesting, predictive factor.
Mark Mitchell: Yeah, he could literally go and rewind the tapes of the 2016 Trump debates and copy his neoconservative attacks word for word and use them again against his own party. He could literally just do that, you know, all the, like, Trump excoriated these people over the Middle east wars and he would definitely set himself apart from the field by doing that.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, he would. And you know, and so that's going to be, you know, again, just a really fascinating calculation. you know, and it's going to be, it's going to be interesting to see kind of where the base, sort of splits when you are going to have, you know, the Trump fade. And and hopefully he doesn't try to, you know, mount some crazy last minute, you know, third term sort of unconstitutional challenge. But that's always this kind of wild card possibility.
Chris Ekstrom: But.
Jenna Ellis: No, not at all. But I'm just saying, you know, I wouldn't put it past him. But you know, overall it's going to be interesting to kind of see where this splits out. And even, you know, for somebody like, like Mark and I, or, you know, we live and breathe this stuff and have, you know, very different opinions which is why I always appreciate talking to people like him, on, you know, advance versus Rubio and then, you know, Desantis kind of where conservatism goes from here. And that's the biggest question mark. And I think the conversation that overall, regardless of any particular primary, we need to discuss moving forward. But Mark Mitchell, really appreciate it. And, as always, you can reach me and my team. Jenna fr.net.
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Jenna Ellis: I love talking about the things of God. Because of truth and the biblical worldview, the U.S. constitution obligates our government to preserve and protect the rights that our founders recognize come from God, our creator, not our government. I believe that scripture in the Bible is very clear that God is the one that raised up each of you, and God has allowed us to be brought here to this specific moment in time. This is Jenna Ellis in the Morning.
Chris Ekstrom: Florida's governor's race was decided last night
Jenna Ellis: Good morning. It is Wednesday, August 19, and the Florida primary took place last night. And unlike California, we actually know who won. So you know that that's a really great thing. And we didn't even have to stay up till midnight, here in the free State of Florida because, we actually know how to run elections, thanks to Governor DeSantis and, you know, some really great Republicans in this state. But let's talk about what actually happened because, overall, I'm really happy with a lot of the results. and I think that, the primaries, overall, Florida voters did a great job. Of course, I live here in the free State of Florida. I'm a voter here. and the, the biggest obvious, outcome here was all eyes were on the governor's race. And the Democrat primary, of course, went to David Jolly. That was no surprise. And then the Republican primary went to Byron Don, who, and also no surprise, but there were a couple of key components about this race that I think are worth, diving into beyond just the fact that, okay, he won, and this is obvious, and we can all discuss the reasons, likely because he entered so early. He had Trump's endorsement behind him. He had the MAGA machine. He had over $100 million in the race and was just insurmountable because no one else could even come close in terms of name recognition. And also Governor DeSantis decided to stay out of the primary. He did say along the way some nice things, about former House Speaker Paul Renner. early on, he said nice things about his lieutenant, Governor Jay Collins, and then, backed off of that and so there was, ah, really a contest kind of to see, you know, who was really going to carry the mantle. A lot of confusion, I think, especially between kind of February up through, maybe just a couple of weeks ago about who DeSantis, may be supporting. And so according to the polls, Undecided was always pulling ahead of Byron Donalds. And, that actually came true last night in this sense that Byron Donald's failed to achieve 50% or more, and he actually ended with 47.8%. So this was, 810,000 votes with 99% of those counted, according to the AP. So he ended up at 47. And this is actually very concerning, going into the general election because that means that 53% or, a little under that, ah, 53% or 52 point, 2 of Republican registered Florida voters wanted literally anybody else but Byron Donalds. And then there, of course, is the split, among the rest of the ticket. But the sentiment in Florida right now, with, with a lot of people, obviously well over 50%, is that they're very concerned about Byron Donald succeeding Governor DeSantis. And I think that if Byron wants to coalesce Republicans in Florida, he's going to have to change his messaging and his attitude. He ran on a very entitled campaign, literally just the Trump endorsement, and thought that that would carry him through the primary, which it did. But a general election is very different. I think he knows that. I think he's smart enough to understand that. But he needs to start backing more DeSantis policy on things that matter, particularly things like pro life, not pushing, or not. Not even fighting against legalizing recreational marijuana. I mean, you know, just some basic
Jenna Ellis: things that should signal that you're a conservative.
Jenna Ellis: And so I'm going to give him the opportunity to earn my vote. but I would like to see some of those things. And I don't think that he should take for granted this contrast to just say, okay, well, we fought the primary and, you know, I won, so now the Republican base must vote for me because the Democrat is so bad. there is a line of thinking that, yes, every election is a closed universe situation. And so, we always are voting for the best possible alternative of those who are actually running. I'm a big advocate and proponent of that, but I don't think that that should be taken for granted. especially because if you consider the Democrats, the independents and Republicans who may stay home, you're looking at a very hotly contested Florida race in a state that Governor DeSantis won, by double digits in 2022. So, let's, let's talk about this and let's welcome in Krish Ekstrom, who's a member, a board member of US Term Limits. And, and Krish, you know, while the primary is supposed to be about choosing our best possible candidate, ah, from the Conservative Party, and that's supposedly what Republican primaries at least are supposed to be doing, it seems like there is, there's too much coronation that is still going on. And my concern for Florida is that, Byron Donalds has the same fundamental flaw that a lot of Republican candidates, across the country are having, which is that they don't take seriously what the actual voters want. They just think if they have Trump's endorsement, they can sail through.
Jenna Bennett: Byron Donalds was held below 50% last night
Chris Ekstrom: Good morning, Jenna. I, think you teed it up really well on Byron Donald's, which is of course the premier state story of last night. Although there were a lot of other stories and some very good things. I think, I do think it was a good thing that Byron was held below, 50%. He should take that as a message. I wouldn't take this as a triumph. Byron started out the campaign extremely weak. He, was notably soft on the stump. this was reported to me by people that were all over the place on this race, many of whom really wanted to support, Byron Donalds, largely because he was being endorsed by President Trump. they were always interested to see where Governor, DeSantis would go. I think the context that Byron is running in is that Governor DeSantis was the leading governor in the entire country. He's probably one of the best governors we've produced since Reagan. and free Florida was a reality. I mean, you saw a culture change in Florida, even in places like South Florida, where Broward county is a Democrat stronghold that was constructed very, definitively by Democrats over maybe a 25 year period. They recruited people to come down and live in Florida who were Democrats. And they did it in many different subtle ways. they managed to bring a lot of black middle class people from all over the country into Broward. And you know, this race is sort of, I think the future of Florida rests on how Byron Donalds may rest. Let's say that, on how Byron Donalds received this message. I hope he receives the message and emulates, as you suggested, Ron DeSantis. I hope he tries to get Ron DeSantis back into the fold with him. And I, you know, the Byron Donalds who wanted to talk about being from Brooklyn all the time. I never could understand that. I don't know who that was supposed to appeal to on a statewide basis. If that was his idea, then his ideas were terrible and clearly somebody got a hold of him and decided to talk more about the inspiring side of Byron's life, which was being a guy was working at Cracker Barrel and now is going to be governor of Florida. I mean nobody really cares about his life in Brooklyn in Florida. and that's more of a Democrat talking point. So, yeah, I'm all over the place here on Byron because Byron was all over the place. We're all hoping for the best, Jenna, and I hope he will learn from this, episode, let's put it that way.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I think where you, where you ended that great analysis with we're all hoping for the best. that's also true and should be true for real conservatives after contentious primaries because regular, listeners of this show, you know, know, well, my concerns, ah, with Byron Donalds and and yet now that he is the nominee, it's similar to those of us who supported Governor DeSantis running for president in 2024. Okay. Once, ah, Donald Trump got the nomination then, and then of course, once he won as well, we're going to hope for the best and say, you know, this is about the future of our nation and here this is about the future of our state. And so we're not going to wish him ill or hope that he doesn't succeed or you know, learns lessons that actually affect our life and policy. my hope for Byron and for all Republican, nominees out of various primaries in various states is that the lessons that they take away from the primaries are okay, I now have a vested trust from the party and from the voting base. So I need to be serious about that and actually look at what being a conservative means. unfortunately that doesn't happen in a lot of instances. But, but I think that in, in Florida in particular, we can hope that with Byron because as you mentioned as well, he's going to need Governor DeSantis endorsement. And what was very interesting last night is that Governor DeSantis did put out a statement, but it wasn't specific to Byron. in fact, he was listed second among all of the top line, nominees that Governor DeSantis congratulated in bulk and basically said, you know, like, like a, you know, Team USA Olympic players, you know, congratulations to all of our, all of our Athletes that, you know, won a spot on Team usa. You know, it wasn't specific to anybody. It wasn't a heartfelt, warm congratulations to Byron. And that was notable because DeSantis did say, on at least the primary level, repeatedly that Byron was not part of the wins in Florida that were significant to Republicans, and that he also, did not share Governor DeSantis policy. And so this is going to be a, hopefully, a turning point in Byron's campaign where he's going to take this 47% and say, okay, I need to be serious and not just assume that the. The bulk of these undecided, this 50, 50 to 53% is just going to get on board.
Chris Ekstrom: Because if I were Byron, of course, I'm a very conservative guy, so, you're going to hear this from me probably most times, but I would try to out DeSantis. DeSantis. On a topic like DEI. There is plenty of work in Free Florida to be done, particularly, among our universities to get rid of this DEI nonsense. And that is, a change in culture that I think is national. But Byron would have the opportunity to lead the way on that, and that was an issue that he just, frankly, wasn't too strong on. Now he's fortunate to be up against one of the most vile, never Trump. I wanted to use another word, and I stopped myself. David Jolly. Whenever you change parties, first off, especially when you go from Republican to Democrat, usually, that won't work. Democrats just are never going to accept them, into their, loving arms. And the. The David Jolly is such a clown and such a remarkably obtuse, figure that, I mean, really, I think any of our candidates that finished in the top, four or five, could probably have beaten David Jolly. but Byron has got an opportunity to make a point here. And let's just pray, Jenna, that he decides that he wants to make that point and be the leader that he can be. Because there's a lot of things DeSantis prepared the ground for, and it would be a terrible shame to let those things just, go off into the mists of history.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, absolutely. And what do you make, Krish Eckstrom, of The fact that Governor DeSantis decided to not weigh in on the primary? Because there's a lot of, you know, various speculation of he didn't see anyone who could actually overcome Byron. he wants to remain viable in the gop. He didn't want to go, after Trump, or, you know, he's just, you know, kind of piecing out of Florida. I mean, you know, there's kind of a wide, variety of opinions. I have my own opinion, but I'd like to hear yours. and what you make of the fact that, you know, I think he is not going to be happy at the end of the day, even privately if he's turning over the reins, to Byron instead of someone like ah, a Paul Renner. but that was in, that was definitely his choice to not endorse in the primary.
Chris Ekstrom: Yeah, there's a lot of inside baseball, behind this. Clearly there's a, there's a dispute between Desantis faction and Trump faction. I don't think it's so much between the president and the governor really, literally, personally, as it really is between factions and people who are powerful in those factions. I think that DeSantis was making a point. I think that he was exposing, Byron Donalds to some hazing. I think it was some hazing that, Byron Donalds richly needed. It's not even a matter of just deserving or it being a sort of spite, issue. I think it, the fact that he got picked on by all these other candidates, including James Fishback, who played a role in this, was, good for Byron. no question about it. In my mind. I think that Desantis, you know, the one unforced error that could have been his was not supporting Renner when there would have been a chance to prop him up. I think Renner would have have been the best choice for DeSantis, all things considered. But then again, I think there was a side of DeSantis that didn't want to go against President Trump in this crucial sort of Florida, you know, state, where we have picked up a state and turned it from purple to red. so I think there was that in DeSantis mind and at least I hope, I hope that's true because that would be a healthy thought. Jake Collins was just a complete non starter and I can't believe that DeSantis picked him with the idea that this is what he really wanted for his legacy. I have to feel like he was a placeholder that was stuck in there and then he was given a chance. And once, DeSantis saw, you know, where his limitations were, that he just didn't want any more part of that and, I can't blame him at all. I hope Jay Collins is one who does fade into the mists of history and we won't be, seeing him around no more.
Jenna Ellis: That'd be just Fine, I agree. And I think actually both the Trump and the DeSantis factions, actually the one unifying point they agree on is you know, hoping that Jay packs it up and goes back to Montana and you know, isn't really in the political space at all after running the worst campaign on the state level that I think I've ever seen. which is saying something. but I agree overall with your analysis and in the fact that this kind of primary level hazing was good for Byron overall. and I agree with your assessment overall of Desantis and his relationship with the President. They're really good friends, and a lot of people don't want to hear that on both sides, but they actually, it's just a fact, they actually are.
Donald Wiles: I think Florida's primary is difficult because it's late
and so the other piece of this though, for, for those in Florida who are concerned about Byron and you know, we'll continue to talk about all of this in just the couple of months before November. I think it is difficult for for Florida that our primary is so late. Ah right, because Byron will only have a couple of months before November instead of you know, from back in March. And now we have a little bit of breathing room to sort of coalesce and, and all of that. So that's one one issue he'll have to to surmount. But the other key piece of this, regardless of where the messaging goes and some of these things overall that I think is a really good thing for Florida is that if we look at the other top three positions that are Florida's cabinet and the way that our state level structure of government is, when you have Wilton Simpson who's the nominee for Agricultural Commissioner, but then especially you, you have James Usmeyer who is the nominee for Attorney General uncontested and then you have Blaze Angolia who has done a phenomenal job as CFO and won overwhelmingly the nomination as well last night. James and Blaze are two guys I know personally, ah very well and have known for years and they are as good as it gets. They're DeSantis conservatives and I think that they will help reign in perhaps some of Byron's less conservative potential urges and, and some of his policy positions, if it gets to that. And I have hope that he will be able to be steered a little bit by those independently elected and so non fireable positions. And so that's where I think there's a bigger silver lining and why I Hope that ultimately, the governor's cabinet, including the, governor's position, will not stray from, Republicans, because then it can be kind of a lockstep. Okay. We're gonna do what's in the best interests of Florida. Take more of a DeSantis model instead of having to contend with someone who is just literally off the rails in terms of policy for trans and kids and, you know, all kinds of absurd nonsense like David Jolly. So I'm. I'm very happy about Blaze and James. Go ahead.
Mark Mitchell: Well, I think, let me add two other interesting, because it's apropos of this with regard to the influence of the president. The president had two of his endorsements lose last night, and one of them, Corrie, Mills, who, you know, obviously has had this crazy, topsy turvy life that frankly should invalidate you for public office. he was close with Byron Donaldson.
Mark Mitchell: I'm not.
Mark Mitchell: I don't know what his influence was or continued to be, but I would say that it's a good thing that he's no longer doing the influencing there. And, I thought the outcome with this, loss. I thought she was going to win, actually, in Byron's old seat, which is Naples, Florida, which is a notorious seat for people basically showing up about, two weeks before the filing date and becoming a congressman. the guy who won, Schwartzel, I believe is his name, is a local phenomena, so he's actually a bit of a rare bird over there. And, Collins was another former congressman who came down for that one out of the. Out of the blue, and he lost. He had been an associate of the president's in NewSong York. I just think that was sort of a weird and interesting outcome. I think, again, if I'm Byron McDonald's and I'm looking at the big picture in Florida, I'm looking at my own seat, and I'm saying, wow. I mean, how did that happen over there? And my friend Mills is no longer with us.
Mark Mitchell: I'm.
Mark Mitchell: I'm just saying, overall, last night was what I would call a message to Byron. And that is, Byron, you know, you got work to do here. You got a little bit of time. You're up against the clown in David Jolly, so you don't need to be running as scared, maybe. And maybe you need to be doing a lot of work to shore up what the Desantis has bequeathed you. And, you know, I hate to put it all on one guy, in Byron Donald's. That is a lot to put on one guy. But you know what, when you want to be governor and when you're given $100 million and when the president goes all in, and Susie Wiles and the powers that be in Florida do, you'd better be ready to pick, up the, pick up the reins and
Jenna Ellis: ride, you know, and especially when you're following someone. Absolutely. And we got to take a break here. But especially when you're also in the position of following someone like Governor DeSantis. because this isn't just, you know, a purple state where, wow, we're so thankful that we don't just have the extreme socialist right. I mean, this is the free state of Florida. So the stakes are, are a lot higher. And the, the perception among the people who live here and moved here, like I did because of DeSantis's leadership, the expectations and the bar is so much higher. So, Krish Ekstrom, really appreciate it. We'll be right back with more.
Jenna Ellis: Hi, I'm Jenna Ellis. Did you know that this content is listener supported? Without people like you, this podcast would not exist. And that's why we need you. A generous monthly gift of any amount will help sustain American Family Radio and specifically this podcast. Podcast. Please consider becoming a monthly financial partner today by visiting afr.net forward slg that's afr.net give welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the morning on American Family Radio.
Mark Mitchell: Byron Collins underperformed Lindsey Graham in Florida primary
Jenna Ellis: Welcome back.
Jenna Ellis: We are talking about Florida's primary results and I want to get, the opinion of our next guest before we also move on to, Darlene Nordone Graham's just absolutely terrible debate. So, so let's welcome in Mark Mitchell, who is the CEO of Honest Poll. And, Mark, I was, listening to a clip last night of your conversation with, Rich Barris, who's for listeners, to know he's also a, a commentator. Ah. And pollster. And I thought that that commentary, was actually really spot on. That again, you know, these numbers for Byron is actually a pretty embarrassing showing. And I hope that he takes the message overall that he's not going to be able to just sail through on the Trump endorsement and is actually going to have to figure out how to be more in alignment, with DeSantis legacy policy and values. what's your take overall of the state of the state of Florida?
Mark Mitchell: I mean, I think that's exactly correct. We're going into a midterms where really pretty much anything could happen. And you're seeing some crazy stuff. Not in Florida, but you're seeing races like North Carolina, where pollsters are putting out, Whatley down as much as 16, 17 points worse than Trump did just two years ago. You're seeing, you know, same kind of thing in Georgia. And so, like, I don't, I don't know. I mean, again, Republicans own Florida, it's a red state, but it's going to be closer than people thought it would be. And he's going to have to spend more money, and that's money that could be going from the RNC to defend House seats that should be safe. And so it's not where you'd want to be. And we, you know, it was really tough knowing where this was going to come out because there hadn't been a ton of good polling. And, you know, I pulled for Mark lynch up against Lindsey Graham. And one of the things that I was told is that, well, you know, the Republican establishment is going to get revenge on you. Lindsey Graham's going to hate you, and you can't do that. It's going to ruin your career. And I did it anyways. And I can only imagine there was the same kind of sentiment, which is like, hey, this guy's been endorsed by Trump seven times. He's got the ear of the president. The entire fundraising apparatus wants this guy to win. And if you put a poll out that puts him on a debate stage with James Fischbach, then you're going to be Persona non grata in the entire polling industry. So what we were surprised to see at the end of the day is that actually the few polls that were put out were pretty good. Everybody was really looking. you know, one of the trends we've been following is what happens with the youth vote, what is online real life, and how is Fishback going to perform? And yet the big surprise was how great Collins did. Nobody expected him. Every single person missed him by like 12 points or more. And he came out with a quarter of the vote. And I said on that stream, Byron Donald's at 50%, and Trump's basically home base with all of this money, all the manna from heaven. And he barely. I mean, he's, he's at half the vote. He underperformed Lindsey Graham. And so, like, that's just not where you want to be. And what I think. And you know Florida better than me, what I think is that Collins over performance was probably people's, like, instinctual desire for a continuation of the status quo or more maturity in office.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And. And I think that his position running, you know, as the current Lieutenant Governor obviously helped him and he had that float that influx of the $5 million, you know, a couple of months ago that allowed him to put out just more ads and you know, be on more media. And that actually makes a difference. And one of the things that Governor DeSantis, you know, said in the last, couple of weeks that, you know, he thought Paul Renner would be a great governor. He's like, but what are you going to do to get out there and get your name known in a big state like Florida? And I think that's one of the things that in the very beginning was just insurmountable with Byron, is that he's been on the Fox News Newsmax, circuit as a very well known Congressman for years. I mean even, you know, my own parents in Colorado, they, they knew Byron, but they didn't know the rest of the names. And so, you know, anybody else who's a voter in Florida, that's just really hard. So, you know, I totally agree with, with your assessment there and also that it's going to be difficult, overall for Byron. But you know, that's in Florida and we have now over a million more registered Republicans, because of the DeSantis legacy, than you know, we did in 2018 when he took the reins. But that's not the case for other states around the country. And so, you know, when you look at what's going on nationally, I think there's a problem as well with the, this whole idea that of coronations. And where do you think that the Trump endorsement value is actually going to be in the midterms?
Mark Mitchell: I think Trump still manages his own White House messaging and comms. Like he has people that does things for him. But I think fundamentally the tone he puts out comes from him and he loves being a king, the coronates people and he loves the endorsement. And I would just say in general, and we've been predicting this for a very long time on your show, MAGA is going to come to an end. Not because I don't like Trump, not because like being mean to him or I want Democrats to win. It's just natural. He's getting older, he's approaching the end of his time in presidency. He's already 70% through all of his presidency time. And the odds look like right now he's going to lose at least one house of the, of the Congress. So that means his legislative agenda is over what little there's been in the second term. And already you can see other signs. So everybody looked at the percent margin in the primary turnout over Democrats in Florida and said look this, Republicans are crushing it. But actually it looks like yesterday's turnout is coming in the lowest 5% of Republican registrations in 2018 and 2022 it's gone from 35 to 33 and now down to 31%. And this is again Trump's home base. Now that's still a high turnout for Republicans. But we've seen this other trend where Republican turnouts and primaries are dropping and also where Republicans are underperforming polling in all the special elections since 2024. So I think 2024 was really kind of the high watermark of the Trump movement. And now you're starting to see the endorsements fray. I mean like your previous guest said, he lost two of them and of course he's not going to put those on his true social. But seven time Trump endorsement like MAGA champion Byron Donalds got 50% of the vote in Florida and people who say, oh look at that, he crushed this back, look at that. And it's like, okay, but 50%, like you can't escape that. This is, these are the people like. And so when Trump's blonde, who's leading this movement? Who are its heroes? How is it there's going to be cohesion? And right now the right is just this circular firing squad because they want to control what the right or conservatism means. And what me and Rich think and have talked a long time is that nobody really understands what they need to be, which is something that represents economic fairness.
Jenna Ellis: M and that is a key issue. And you know, and this is not surprising that the Trump era is coming to an end. I mean that's just how it always goes in political cycles. I mean we can look at the eight years of Reagan and then how, you know, conservative politics moved on. I mean that's kind of the last, you know, big great, era and conservatives always refer to it, right, you know, the Reagan era. Well the MAGA era is naturally coming to an end and obviously there will be a successor to Trump. But that's going to be very different because there's no leader like Trump, there's no personality, like Trump. And I think that we need to as a movement be prepared for that and not just expect that Trump is going to himself is going to go into this kind of emeritus position with total control over the gop and, and his endorsements will carry the same value. I mean we're already reaching lame duck territory pretty quickly here. And so you said the words, so
Mark Mitchell: I didn't have to. I agree.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah.
JD: How difficult is this midterm election for Republicans
And I mean, and that's just the reality. And again, like you said, that's not, you know, me hating on Trump. That's not, you know, saying, I hope that he fails or the next, you know, two years, we don't get any policy done. I'm frustrated with the last two years, but that's just the political reality. And so when you take, a look at the entire country, how difficult do you think, that this is going to be for Republicans? I mean, in the midterms, are we going to learn our lesson to perhaps finally do what we should have done back in 2024 and actually figure out again, kind of this fourth wave, or fourth turning of what we understand conservatism truly to be and what it is we're fighting for beyond a personality.
Mark Mitchell: So whether you like him or not, what I think is very important is the 10 points that Tucker came out with. And listen, I'm not a DC Insider, I'm an outsider, and I think that's why I do my job better. But I understand public opinion. And when you are trying to form a coalition, like what Trump did, he had great branding, and that brought him a long way. But he also knew what Americans wanted. They wanted a border wall. You know, they wanted, China to be held accountable. They wanted the swamp to be drained. And so he gave them what they wanted. But the problem is, is that we're not going to get that again, probably. And also, I think you're going to find, because Trump is really kind of tracing the job approval rating of George W. Bush in his second term, they're almost exactly the same. And of course, at the time, he was becoming unpopular because he was mired in the Middle East. people are going to be looking for a lot of the Trump agenda, but in a delivery that looks like it's intent on actually, like, governing that way. And that's going to be a hard thing to deliver. And so what Tucker did, in my opinion, is start with values and morals. And I think that's something that's more important to the youth than just saying a policy position or just parroting a word like conservatism. I'm going to be a staunch conservative. Like, what? It's hard to get excited about that. Like, what does that mean? It means you're going to get in office and do nothing for four years. Right. So when he Says, like, fairness, okay? Or, you know, rule of law or these things. Then when you say a policy like we have to deport everybody, people are going to say, okay, well, you're doing it because that's fairness and that's national sovereignty. Right? Well, I think a lot of people mapped whatever they wanted on Trump's policy of deporting everybody. And then the problem is, is that when you see something like, oh, all of a sudden Trump is. Is for scaling back the deportations, then it's like, well, what was. Why were we doing this? What was the value or moral? So the left called it racist, and then the right called it, you know, a lot of people on the right say, well, you know, he just said it to get elected. So I think that that's a positive thing. And I think JD Is smart in a builder and is really, unfortunately the only economic populist that I think we really have on the right with bonafides. So that puts us in a tough spot, because obviously he's going to have a lot of opponents that don't want him to get elected. And you can see it now. They're basically calling him a socialist. And, like, I don't know how you get over that.
Mark Mitchell: Like, I don't know how you build a cohesive, movement. And if Trump, like you said, like, he's going to have a hard time going emeritus, I think that's very much the case because he still will be the most influential person in the right, but he'll also be divisive and as a lame duck, like, a lot of people are just not even want to hear from him anymore. I don't. I mean, if he really wanted his legacy to be the best as possible, it would be a graceful, like grooming and turnover to JD but we haven't seen that coming yet.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah. And I, I'm not sure that, that handing anything over, particularly, you know, power, influence, peacefully is, you know, is really ever, in Trump's wheelhouse. but, you know, we. We could be surprised. And, you know, and my opinion, of course, is that, you know, Rubio is currently positioned, I think, to be, the best overall successor. you know, we can. Obviously, we will talk about that a lot more, as. As we get past the midterms and start looking to 2028. But, we are going to keep Mark Mitchell through the break. Come back. I want to talk about, Darlene Graham Nordone, who I think is going to be one of Trump's, probably worst endorsements of this cycle. Maybe we can understand that a little bit just because, you know, he had such fondness for her brother, the late Lindsey Graham. but we'll be right back with more here on Jenna Ellis in the morning.
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Mark Mitchell says Darlene Graham botched national security question during debate
Welcome back to Jenna Ellis in the Morning on American Family Radio.
Jenna Ellis: Welcome back. I'm here, with my special guest this morning, Mark Mitchell, who's the CEO of Honest Poll. You can follow him on social media. I'd encourage you to do that for all of the, political takes and really good information, and pulling info. but Mark, I want to talk about, Darlene Graham. And this was just a really shockingly embarrassing debate performance, but just proved the point that, you know, she really is not qualified in any meaningful sense, to actually run for this term. my view is that, you know, she should have just taken the appointment, finished out, the term, not run. Her staff could, you know, protect her from a lot of, you know, interviews and questions and so forth. And then she could have just, you know, retired peacefully and she's, she's done the, the brief service for, her brother's legacy, but then hand over the seat to someone, like a Ralph Norman who actually knows what he's doing. but this was the exchange. And and this was not even a difficult or, you know, a gotcha question, during the Debate. She was simply asked about national security. This is cut one, Senator.
Speaker E: are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? If so, why? I'm sorry, could you repeat the question? Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? And if so, why or how? I'm just going to be honest here. I'm not on national security. I'm not that informed on national security, so. But I do support the military.
Jenna Ellis: just, just terrible. Your, your thoughts, Mark?
Mark Mitchell: I mean, I think my 14 year old could have given a better response than that. And I think she really knows, but I think she didn't want to create a sound bite that could be used against her. Wouldn't you know it, she, she did even the worst one, which is like, okay, now you make yourself look incompetent. This is the Trump endorsement, everybody. This is the one. This is the maga. So it's like back to our previous discussion. What does it even mean at this point? And I think people are looking at this like the number one worst thing she could have said is that, well, Israel's our greatest ally and we're going to support everything they do in the Middle East. We're going to give them infinite military backstop. Then this one was like, nope, this one's even worse. So I think people will look at that and say, well, she's just going to rub or stamp whatever the Republicans tell her to. And that's, I guess, who Trump wants in office. I don't know. But she's, I think, has a real shot at getting beat now because there was a very crowded field, but now it's probably going to pile in behind Norman and he's known in the state and that's it. It's over. Another Trump endorsement in the can. And, you know, I think going back to our previous quick talk about JD And Rubio is that there's a discussion that's got to be had about foreign policy in the Republican Party. And it feels like we're regressing into an interventionalist Bush era Republican, party that is nails on the chalkboard. It doesn't mean that people don't understand foreign policy and that they wouldn't support the right kind of actions, but it's not the priority people want by like almost a 3 to 1 margin. They say they want a domestic policy focus and that's why it's important for Rubio to pay attention to these things. J.D. vance is out polling him, you know, 2 to 1 and earlier in the term, it was 3 to 1among GOP likely primary voters. And solely, I think the reason is, is that JD has more domestic policy focus. They want, people want their economic situation put first. And I really haven't seen Rubio talk about any of that stuff at all. So I don't know, I mean, stuff will happen behind the scenes to determine, I think, who's probably going to be the candidate. But he'd be well advised to pay attention to what you really want and that is fair capitalism. And I said this last night in a tweet, there are two Republicans on Mount Rushmore. One of them is Abraham Lincoln and the other is a Republican that was actually very socialistic on the economy. He was all for confiscating excess wealth of billionaires. He was for higher wages and he was for busting up monopolies. I've never, I don't even think I've heard a Republican outside of JD Vance say the word monopoly. And that's their, that's their Achilles heel. That's the critical failure of the Republican Party right now.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, and I completely agree with you that you know, a lot of the base, especially you know, the America only sort of, you know, young people who are really frustrated with what's going on, you know, with Iran, with Israel, you know, everything going on right now, I mean, even my little brother was texting me last night. He's not in that category. But you know, even someone who's very conservative like him, you know, was texting our family group chat last night saying, you know, what is Trump doing in Iran still? You know, that look at the gas prices and you know, this affects him. I mean he's newly married and he has a good job, but it's like he's one of those that's building toward buying a house someday and you know, falls into that category of wanting to actively pursue the American dream and is frustrated now as much as he has been the most ardent supporter of Donald Trump, you know, voted for him, and all of that. And so, but where on the Rubio front, you know, I mean right now he's, he's the Secretary of State, so obviously his forward facing view is going to naturally be more foreign policy. but I agree with you that as you know, things progress, especially after, the midterms, if he's going to be a candidate, then he's going to have to address, you know, a lot more of that. And I think that he will. but how much of this is about perception, instead of perhaps, you know, the track record that people don't remember because it's not, you know, the immediate 5 minutes ago news cycle.
Mark Mitchell: I mean I think he is a vestige of a Republican party. And I'm not saying again that he can't break out of this. I'm just saying like my opinion of a Republican Party that firmly believed in the corporate tax cuts and trickle down economics and Reaganomics and by extension globalism and job offshoring and this is the club for growth, you know, Cato Institute, Republican ah, party. And I would just say like across the board that's a dying proposition because we are essentially in a gilded age and we have this problem before. This is not a new problem. There were like top 10 songs in the 1880s about busting up monopolies. Like we've had problems with workers rights and wages being suppressed in the United States. Right. So we know the way out of this. And unfortunately it's not Reaganomics and unfortunately it's a president that gets in and has the sort of spine to be hostile to these corporations and create a fairer economic situation. And that might even mean playing fast and loose with the Constitution like Teddy, Roosevelt did. And so you know, when you, when you pound your chest and see how the Constitutional is conservative, you know, free markets and stuff, like it's not, it's not going to go well. And JD's got a lot of history talking about these things. But then ultimately the other problem you have is the entire Republican infrastructure and establishment is not equipped to even think about this issue, let alone talk about it in a particular way. And again, I'm not saying like this is incrementally going to be a strangling death of the Republican Party over time. This isn't like if they don't do this in 2028, like I do think they're going to lose 2028, all things being equal, just because that's what tends to happen, it swings back. Right?
Mark Mitchell: And they're not going to have as big of a coattails as they've had in the past. And people are going to want to put Trump, a lot of them are going to want to put the Trump period behind them. And so it's likely to say that whoever the Democrat nominee is, they have a pretty good shot right now. But then every year that goes on, you're losing about 3 million of those people who believe in Grandpappy's, capitalism, right? And you're getting those voters replaced with people who think the entire economic system is unfair. And so you're going to see this increasing messy middle of people who are up for grabs and the Republicans just aren't as equipped as the Democrats to grab those people.
Jenna Ellis: And I agree with that assessment that, you know, all things being equal and where we're sitting out and things could change. But, you know, today, August 19th, you know, in 2026, that it's, it's more likely than not that Republicans will lose in 2028. And that is probably the biggest, biggest overall factor that someone like Iran DeSantis is contemplating whether or not he will wade, into the presidential primary.
Mark Mitchell: Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans will lose
Because, you know, I know him well enough to know that if he truly believes that regardless of who the nominee is, it's more likely that Republicans will lose. He won't even put his, ah, hat in the ring. And so I think that, that, that is going to be a very interesting bellwether moment, to see his political calculation and whether or not he chooses to speak step in and what that says overall, because he's a very savvy forecaster, he's not in it, in my opinion, at all for himself or the power. He genuinely is a statesman, which is what you want. And so I think that's going to be also just an interesting, predictive factor.
Mark Mitchell: Yeah, he could literally go and rewind the tapes of the 2016 Trump debates and copy his neoconservative attacks word for word and use them again against his own party. He could literally just do that, you know, all the, like, Trump excoriated these people over the Middle east wars and he would definitely set himself apart from the field by doing that.
Jenna Ellis: Yeah, he would. And you know, and so that's going to be, you know, again, just a really fascinating calculation. you know, and it's going to be, it's going to be interesting to see kind of where the base, sort of splits when you are going to have, you know, the Trump fade. And and hopefully he doesn't try to, you know, mount some crazy last minute, you know, third term sort of unconstitutional challenge. But that's always this kind of wild card possibility.
Chris Ekstrom: But.
Jenna Ellis: No, not at all. But I'm just saying, you know, I wouldn't put it past him. But you know, overall it's going to be interesting to kind of see where this splits out. And even, you know, for somebody like, like Mark and I, or, you know, we live and breathe this stuff and have, you know, very different opinions which is why I always appreciate talking to people like him, on, you know, advance versus Rubio and then, you know, Desantis kind of where conservatism goes from here. And that's the biggest question mark. And I think the conversation that overall, regardless of any particular primary, we need to discuss moving forward. But Mark Mitchell, really appreciate it. And, as always, you can reach me and my team. Jenna fr.net.
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Jenna Ellis discusses the recent Florida primary results and the implications for Republican candidates, particularly Byron Donalds. Joined by political analyst Chris Ekstrom, they dive into the factors that influenced the primaries, the significance of endorsements, and the challenges facing candidates as they approach the general election. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of conservatism in America and the importance of aligning with voter expectations.
(00:00) Jenna Ellis: When a mother meets her baby, it's divine connection
(01:02) Chris Ekstrom: Florida's governor's race was decided last night
(06:51) Jenna Bennett: Byron Donalds was held below 50% last night
(17:41) Donald Wiles: I think Florida's primary is difficult because it's late
(24:06) Mark Mitchell: Byron Collins underperformed Lindsey Graham in Florida primary
(32:38) JD: How difficult is this midterm election for Republicans
(37:43) 80% of abortion vulnerable women choose life after seeing baby on ultrasound
(39:01) Mark Mitchell says Darlene Graham botched national security question during debate
(48:05) Mark Mitchell: Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans will lose
Jenna Ellis discusses the recent Florida primary results and the implications for Republican candidates, particularly Byron Donalds. Joined by political analyst Chris Ekstrom, they dive into the factors that influenced the primaries, the significance of endorsements, and the challenges facing candidates as they approach the general election. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of conservatism in America and the importance of aligning with voter expectations.
(00:00) Jenna Ellis: When a mother meets her baby, it's divine connection
(01:02) Chris Ekstrom: Florida's governor's race was decided last night
(06:51) Jenna Bennett: Byron Donalds was held below 50% last night
(17:41) Donald Wiles: I think Florida's primary is difficult because it's late
(24:06) Mark Mitchell: Byron Collins underperformed Lindsey Graham in Florida primary
(32:38) JD: How difficult is this midterm election for Republicans
(37:43) 80% of abortion vulnerable women choose life after seeing baby on ultrasound
(39:01) Mark Mitchell says Darlene Graham botched national security question during debate
(48:05) Mark Mitchell: Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans will lose
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